Skip to main content

All In Podcast Episode 172 Recap and Notes March 29 2024

March 29 2024

  • Chamath poker fun

  • SBF sentenced to 25 years

    • FTX divesting its Anthropic bet
    • SBF was an investor in Anthropic and Solana
    • Customers might be made whole
    • Seems investors might also be made whole
    • Probably BTC, ETH, SOL all going up is helping?
    • In retrospect he could have come through this unscathed if they hadn’t done all the stealing of customer money for Alameda
    • Sacks had a debate with SBF about the ballot initiative he was funding in CA to raise taxes for a pandemic prevention center to be run by his brother - when SBF doesn’t even live in CA
    • Jason met him when he seemed to be high/on-substances

  • Trump social media SPAC/deSPAC

    • Company growing 3x year over year - you can buy the stock - DJT/TMTG
    • Valuation is ~$8.5B
    • This seems similar to 1997 moment when David Bowie launched a $55M bond which worked out well for investors
    • Shows the power of personalities like Trump, Kim Kardashian,
    • This is like goodwill line item for Coke, Pepsi, etc
    • Many other individuals will do the same thing - bet on their brand
    • Trump’s enemies are angry about this SPAC
    • Lots of people are willing to buy this stock as a protest vote
    • Seems now stock price is not tied to fundamentals but other factors?

  • RFK Jr chooses Nicole Shanahan as his running mate

    • Should appeal to the left leaning parts of the voting population
    • Might be a strategy by right wing politicians to prop up RFK Jr to take away voters from Biden

  • Biden budget 2025

    • Research shows that if you tax > 20% of GDP of an economy, then GDP drops

    • In best years of Reagan and Clinton booms, government was extracting ~20% of GDP

    • The problem is spending - freeze it

    • Ability for US labor to earn is so dependent on US federal spending

    • Majority of US labor force is employed by government or supported by government programs

    • That’s why it can’t stop 🙂

    • The real economy - the deflationary economy is the real economy

    • There are a lot of special interests that are looting the economy, and donate to politicians

    • All categories where federal government steps in, the price goes up

    • All employees in government - going up and up

    • US might still be better off than some other countries

    • US one of few Western countries to have meaningful population growth

    • Reduce spending or just freeze it - while productivity goes up

    • Now interest spending is growing a lot

  • Cocoa price skyrocketing

    • 70% of world cocoa comes from Africa - Ghana, Ivory Coast

    • They had massive El Nino event last year

    • So fungus spread on cocoa trees

    • So cocoa production dropped in Ghana

    • People started buying up a lot and then short sellers got squeezed - so prices went up parabolic

    • So prices of chocolate bars will rise and size will go smaller

  • Movies
    • Dune 2
    • Arrival
    • Sicario
    • Thank you for Smoking stories

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

What's your favourite Iron Maiden song?

Part of the NWOBHM ( ignoramuses can go ahead and google that :P ), Iron Maiden have rocked for a long time, with many brilliant compositions (yes compositions, as intricately crafted as any symphony you philistines - the cadence of mcbrain's drums, the richness of dickinson's voice, steve harris's incomparable lyrics and I will stop before waxing lyrical about the guitars of Dave Murray, Adrian Smith and Janick Gers....man!). So what is your favourite Iron Maiden song? I ask because frankly I don't think I have one, and I doubt if its possible for me to single any one out. (get it -- "single"? I use it while referring to songs? mmmpff :D, k, never mind) (wrt the inaugural blog post which was in keeping with the spirit of this webpage, I thought I might as well clear the air regarding the only thing meaningful in the whole piece - the title )
12 comments
Read more

Mxyztplk

kljfkldsajfks djfsdfklj23kj2kl3j423kl j4l23k jrkl;qjr;lwqej klqwjdklasdjklj234kj23kjsa kljdaskd'asdasd sad w 23 424k 23l4k23lk 4l23 4l32 kweerkwqe23 14 wqd asda d 234 2134 23 42343rldla;dkl;sakdl;kasl;dkas;ldk;asdklkasdklal23l;k4klsaldksaldksl;adk
7 comments
Read more

All In Podcast Episode 229 Recap and Notes May 23 2025

May 23 2025 All In Summit Bond market chaos Weak bond demand 10 year yields spiked Govt sells bonds to fund its activities Crazy debt projections 😟 Market does not want to buy debt from government Big beautiful bill is the anti-DOGE Worst case for financial situation Bill passed 215-214, 1 person slept on the floor and didn’t vote Gold and BTC spiked US downgraded Bill favors traditional republicans and traditional democrats Energy prices will spike, AI energy generation will be harder Fed might increase interest rates Republicans abandoned DOGE Tax cuts are good at least Better border security What is happening in Japan currency/bond markets might lead to $1T sale of US treasuries This could devalue the dollar This bill will hurt the US economy US politicians don’t want austerity President doesn’t have enough power over spending People vote for Republicans to cut taxes and cut spending - they did 1 out of 2 this tim...
Post a Comment
Read more