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All In Podcast Episode 172 Recap and Notes March 29 2024

March 29 2024

  • Chamath poker fun

  • SBF sentenced to 25 years

    • FTX divesting its Anthropic bet
    • SBF was an investor in Anthropic and Solana
    • Customers might be made whole
    • Seems investors might also be made whole
    • Probably BTC, ETH, SOL all going up is helping?
    • In retrospect he could have come through this unscathed if they hadn’t done all the stealing of customer money for Alameda
    • Sacks had a debate with SBF about the ballot initiative he was funding in CA to raise taxes for a pandemic prevention center to be run by his brother - when SBF doesn’t even live in CA
    • Jason met him when he seemed to be high/on-substances

  • Trump social media SPAC/deSPAC

    • Company growing 3x year over year - you can buy the stock - DJT/TMTG
    • Valuation is ~$8.5B
    • This seems similar to 1997 moment when David Bowie launched a $55M bond which worked out well for investors
    • Shows the power of personalities like Trump, Kim Kardashian,
    • This is like goodwill line item for Coke, Pepsi, etc
    • Many other individuals will do the same thing - bet on their brand
    • Trump’s enemies are angry about this SPAC
    • Lots of people are willing to buy this stock as a protest vote
    • Seems now stock price is not tied to fundamentals but other factors?

  • RFK Jr chooses Nicole Shanahan as his running mate

    • Should appeal to the left leaning parts of the voting population
    • Might be a strategy by right wing politicians to prop up RFK Jr to take away voters from Biden

  • Biden budget 2025

    • Research shows that if you tax > 20% of GDP of an economy, then GDP drops

    • In best years of Reagan and Clinton booms, government was extracting ~20% of GDP

    • The problem is spending - freeze it

    • Ability for US labor to earn is so dependent on US federal spending

    • Majority of US labor force is employed by government or supported by government programs

    • That’s why it can’t stop 🙂

    • The real economy - the deflationary economy is the real economy

    • There are a lot of special interests that are looting the economy, and donate to politicians

    • All categories where federal government steps in, the price goes up

    • All employees in government - going up and up

    • US might still be better off than some other countries

    • US one of few Western countries to have meaningful population growth

    • Reduce spending or just freeze it - while productivity goes up

    • Now interest spending is growing a lot

  • Cocoa price skyrocketing

    • 70% of world cocoa comes from Africa - Ghana, Ivory Coast

    • They had massive El Nino event last year

    • So fungus spread on cocoa trees

    • So cocoa production dropped in Ghana

    • People started buying up a lot and then short sellers got squeezed - so prices went up parabolic

    • So prices of chocolate bars will rise and size will go smaller

  • Movies
    • Dune 2
    • Arrival
    • Sicario
    • Thank you for Smoking stories

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