March 29 2024
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Chamath poker fun
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SBF sentenced to 25 years
- FTX divesting its Anthropic bet
- SBF was an investor in Anthropic and Solana
- Customers might be made whole
- Seems investors might also be made whole
- Probably BTC, ETH, SOL all going up is helping?
- In retrospect he could have come through this unscathed if they hadn’t done all the stealing of customer money for Alameda
- Sacks had a debate with SBF about the ballot initiative he was funding in CA to raise taxes for a pandemic prevention center to be run by his brother - when SBF doesn’t even live in CA
- Jason met him when he seemed to be high/on-substances
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Trump social media SPAC/deSPAC
- Company growing 3x year over year - you can buy the stock - DJT/TMTG
- Valuation is ~$8.5B
- This seems similar to 1997 moment when David Bowie launched a $55M bond which worked out well for investors
- Shows the power of personalities like Trump, Kim Kardashian,
- This is like goodwill line item for Coke, Pepsi, etc
- Many other individuals will do the same thing - bet on their brand
- Trump’s enemies are angry about this SPAC
- Lots of people are willing to buy this stock as a protest vote
- Seems now stock price is not tied to fundamentals but other factors?
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RFK Jr chooses Nicole Shanahan as his running mate
- Should appeal to the left leaning parts of the voting population
- Might be a strategy by right wing politicians to prop up RFK Jr to take away voters from Biden
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Biden budget 2025
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Research shows that if you tax > 20% of GDP of an economy, then GDP drops
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In best years of Reagan and Clinton booms, government was extracting ~20% of GDP
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The problem is spending - freeze it
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Ability for US labor to earn is so dependent on US federal spending
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Majority of US labor force is employed by government or supported by government programs
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That’s why it can’t stop 🙂
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The real economy - the deflationary economy is the real economy
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There are a lot of special interests that are looting the economy, and donate to politicians
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All categories where federal government steps in, the price goes up
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All employees in government - going up and up
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US might still be better off than some other countries
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US one of few Western countries to have meaningful population growth
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Reduce spending or just freeze it - while productivity goes up
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Now interest spending is growing a lot
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Cocoa price skyrocketing
- 70% of world cocoa comes from Africa - Ghana, Ivory Coast
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They had massive El Nino event last year
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So fungus spread on cocoa trees
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So cocoa production dropped in Ghana
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People started buying up a lot and then short sellers got squeezed - so prices went up parabolic
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So prices of chocolate bars will rise and size will go smaller
- Movies
- Dune 2
- Arrival
- Sicario
- Thank you for Smoking stories
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