All the crap you never needed

May 17 2024 Phil Hellmuth birthday weekend Besties having fun OpenAI GPT-4o Multi modal Amazing use cases - translation, teaching, etc “Facebook” of AI has yet to be created seems like - maybe OpenAI is doing these demos to shore up customer usage Models are getting cheaper and better Lot of startups’ product roadmaps and R&D went out the window - start a company now, last 2-5 years of work is gone Where does model innovation end and your innovation begin? They should do open source Facebook did the same thing with Open Compute Sacks’ Glue AI features Can do queries, transcripts, etc They use ragie.ai No channels Promptless - you don’t even have to @mention any specific dataset bot - TBD Ohalo Boosted breeding - figured out how to get 100% of genes from mother and father plants 100% of genes means no random outcomes Yield on some of these plants goes up 50-100% or more Better yield Polyploid - multiple sets of chromosomes Works in plants,

May 10 2024 Sam Altman joins All In!! Seqouia scout with Jason YC OpenAI GPT-5 Might just be better GPT-4 Optimistic about speed and cost - because that’s what people want Thinks open source and closed source can co-exist Very interested in some kind of AI-powered device - will it be a phone? Phones are already great so something else has to be much better Thinks iPhone is the best computing device ever made Agents Wants the world’s greatest assistant Another approach is alter-ego Wants to design a world that can be equally used by humans and AIs Voice, multi modal etc is interesting But multiple interfaces will probably always be there Excited about potential for faster and better scientific discovery Training vs Inference Training data will be less important going forward and inference will be more going forward AI regulation Skeptical about details for minutiae But backs the need for regulation - if we don’t do that we would be irresponsible Like how

May 3 2024 Sheryl Sandberg joins the show! Sacks last minute board meeting She’s a complete rockstar Google - $20M to $22B Facebook - $250M to ~$170B Dave Goldberg - her husband was FakeChamath handle on twitter She has produced a documentary About Oct 7 and Hamas attacks Shocked how people were denying what happened in the attacks Especially the sexual violence Sexual violence is a war crime Campus protests Kids are gravitating to these because of social dynamic - they feel attached to something OpenCRISPR-1 Profluent Bio based in Berkeley Open source AI gene editing

April 26 2024   Flipping restaurant reservations People selling restaurant reservations Tips Jason tips the maitre’d $20-$50-$100 Meta Llama3 is out Scorched earth strategy to make it more accessible - its not a core product for them but important Chamath called this in Jan 2023 Zuck reinforced this recently Google did the same with Android and open sourcing You close source when you lead, you open source when you want to catch up Many companies could attack Google search now Stock down because of aggressive AI spending Could be because they are perceived as over spending on NVidia Inference vs Training Tesla Stock went up Layoffs Reincorporate in Texas and leave Delaware Some investors are perceiving a CEO executing according to his original master plan Could be some macro trends hitting them too Robo Taxis could be a big business for Tesla Robots could also be big in the long term Energy could also be a big business (there are 1700 utilities in the U

April 19 2024 Chamath at Breakthrough Prize Yuri Milner/Julia Milner + Zuck/Priscilla + Sergey Brin + Ann Wojcicki organize it All in Summit Google fires protesters Protesting deal with Israel/Israeli entity Took over office and being disruptive ~28 people fired, some were even arrested Entitlement or people being brave and willing to live with the consequences? Left leaning employees asking Left leaning organizations to be more left leaning Right to protest is important - but can’t impede functioning of society Might not be so different from Vietnam War for US (this Gaza war for Israel) Protesters might be looked at differently over time just like the older supporters were Guerilla warfare is also similar There are even articles now showing that Israel might not win the war eventually Americans also killed millions of vietnamese in the war Rules of engagement are quite loose Dehumanization happened then, and now again NPR controversy Katherine Maher became CE

April 12 2024 Friedberg moderating, JCal out AIS 2024 Back to LA Sep 8-10 Upgraded experience Nvidia They are strong in learning They are trying to build a business in inference Structural innovator’s dilemma - learning vs inference There might be an opportunity for new chip startups Western cities in decline Chamath was in Paris, complaining about same stuff like London and San Francisco, etc Decriminalization, de-carceration agenda is hurting at least the big US cities that are mainly blue Lessening of prosecutions for crime Hard to change a 1 party state People who live in these places are complaining Google Cloud Next trip for Friedberg Platform is amazing - so many companies build ecosystem around that Everyone is also trying to do multi-cloud Cloud is a wide open competitive market There is no AWS or Azure lock-in - or less of it The clouds are competing for the consultants who will do the work for their customers - CapGemini, Deloitte, etc Inflatio

April 5 2024 New CEO Jon Haile Strong background in incredible live experiences and events Community matters, live content matters Content creators are the new form of demand generation instead of ads Live experiences are the way to go New books: Bad Therapy; Jon Haidt’s new book also 1M subscriber party will happen once they hit that milestone FTX correction Depositors aren’t really being made whole - their crypto dropped in price and they are getting it at the lower price, didn’t get the run up Example: Solana was $16 at the time FTX went under - but Solana is now like ~$188 This is material to SBF sentencing - reporters were buying into the idea that depositors were being made whole - the media is carrying water for SBF clearly Clearly the idea is to get SBF’s sentence commuted - his parents are big democratic donors The collectors/trustee/etc are liquidating at high price BUT giving back the original depositors the crypto at low price This proves that no one is bein

March 29 2024 Chamath poker fun SBF sentenced to 25 years FTX divesting its Anthropic bet SBF was an investor in Anthropic and Solana Customers might be made whole Seems investors might also be made whole Probably BTC, ETH, SOL all going up is helping? In retrospect he could have come through this unscathed if they hadn’t done all the stealing of customer money for Alameda Sacks had a debate with SBF about the ballot initiative he was funding in CA to raise taxes for a pandemic prevention center to be run by his brother - when SBF doesn’t even live in CA Jason met him when he seemed to be high/on-substances Trump social media SPAC/deSPAC Company growing 3x year over year - you can buy the stock - DJT/TMTG Valuation is ~$8.5B This seems similar to 1997 moment when David Bowie launched a $55M bond which worked out well for investors Shows the power of personalities like Trump, Kim Kardashian, This is like goodwill line item for Coke, Pepsi, etc Many other indivi

March 22 2024 Dune 2 DoJ sues Apple Apple charges 30% How can you install software for free on a laptop but on Apple its 30% and only from the App Store? Government should really regulate this? Why can’t consumers choose Is interoperability in Apple’s interest actually? More people will buy Apple watch, install iMessage, etc Why is this different from what happened with Microsoft? They could have owned the browser and search, html vs activeX, etc How is Apple allowed to get away with this? Google is also doing the same thing with Android that Microsoft did with browser on Windows (you have to have google search if you want our support?) Apple looking for AI Gemini or OpenAI? They spent $30B on R&D last year - what did they spend it on? Where is their AI strategy? How come something so important is being outsourced? NAR lawsuit settlement Commissions are $100B a year in the US Could reduce by 30% The 3% for Buyer’s agent can now be negotiated, to be paid by the

March 15 2024 JCal Christopher Walken impression Friedberg’s new family members 2 more dogs Based Tech CEOs Jensen Huang about pain and suffering and resilience and low expectations Alex Karp about short sellers coked up Seems folks are less scared of cancel culture Elon has taken more risk with what he has done Pain and suffering is necessary to succeed in life - its a requisite to greatness Hard to start a company Entrepreneurship is very stressful Have to learn to deal with rejection Persisting through failure is the most important trait you have to develop OpenAI training data sources under doubt Mira Murati - CTO - gave troubling interview YouTube was used? You might be able to train with no problem on public data Google might itself not have the right to train on YouTube data Others might be able to Vertical AI startups Harvey - AI for lawyers Abridge - AI for doctors TaxGPT Cognition - Devin Tweaking reasoning and long term planning on existing

March 8 2024 Dumb jokes Elon vs OpenAI He feels cheated - especially coz he worked to get Ilya and his name was used to raise money, etc Good point about donating tax free to nonprofit - and then change to for profit and make money Twitter crowd having a field day Elon’s emails and messages that OpenAI published seem to weaken his case Structure is not what you want to innovate on OpenAI could have tripped something by letting employees sell shares Instead they should have done Mozilla model of paying above market salaries to employees Elon was right that OpenAI would have needed amaziing amounts of capital to really work Sam Altman’s OpenAI Ventures thing could cause problems They were supposed to be open source for the benefit of humanity - then they changed it to closed source, and employees sold $2B of equity Also the shenanigans with the board will also cause IRS to raise their eyebrows They should have just made it all for profit Sam doesn’t get to monetize the th

March 1 2024 Jason enjoying fancy houses Sacks has a big talk coming up soon in DC Groq doing well 10k developers on waitlist Google’s Gemini DEI Black Eye - Woke AI 3 main businesses Search Ads YouTube Cloud Search has best margin and does $50B a quarter Will Sundar survive this challenge right now? Will GOOG stock trade well? Apparently internal employees are finally standing up to Responsible AI’s reported “irresponsible” conduct “The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants” - Jefferson The company is the way it is because they have chosen to be that way Apparently every meeting above a certain size has a DEI person in it (in Google) Similar to Commander and Commissar example in Soviet Union If Google loses even a couple % points of search market share, their stock price could be cut in half Employees in Google - a good chunk of them - think they can use Google to change the world in rand

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February 9 2024 Friedberg is back Apple Vision Pro Better than MetaQuest Pro - no dizziness and disconnectedness apparently Lots of image collection, data collection, etc can be done while you’re working Enterprise applications - data is being ingested in real time Workforce can be trained by the goggles in a way video can never do Relate this to how young people are having bad outcomes because of technology and social media - might exacerbate it When Apple comes into the race, its the starting gun for the space Friedberg predicts they will get $100B in sales over the next 5 years You can do all your work without people seeing your screen, etc Jason thinks its an enterprise device Chamath, Friedberg, etc have strict rules for their kids’ electronics Can also go long SSRIs, etc with Apple Meta vs Snap Meta is rocking, Snap is rocked Snap has voting imbalance and maybe that’s what’s hurting them A different kind of investor will go to them because they have no say

February 2 2024 Friedberg out JCal bought Apple googles for all besties Never know when you will get lucky in life Senate hearing on social media This is misguided - how can you end all harm - zeroism is dangerous Moral panic Powerful moment where Zuckerberg faced the families and apologized in court In the past too people blamed other factors - Judas Priest was brought to court for their lyrics Rap music was targeted in the past too There is a massive law of large numbers at play here too - 1/10 of 1 percent of all users is still > 3M people How does Section 230 apply here? Are platforms publishers or distributors? Are they editorializing or are they a newstand? Section 230 says if you make a good samaritan effort to combat bad things, you should be protected Parents also have to play an active role if we want social media at scale Lawyers are salivating at how they were able to extract money against tobacco, etc and now at this - they are a big donor for democrats

January 26 2024 Besties body shame Phil Helmuth and mock his fashion sense Markets going up SP 500 up Gas prices down Consumer sentiment positive Counter BTFP ending in March China negative economic signals National debt and debt service are out of control Media job cuts Business Insider, LA Times did lots of layoffs, Conde Nast Sports Illustrated, Pitchfork, etc are in trouble Bill Ackman (virtually) sticking the knife in People prefer experts going direct instead of random media Google trends shows Twitter is doing quite well for the mainstream If you don’t have a strong personality at the center of your publication, you have to lie or make up stuff or toe the party line, so there’s a glut of outlets doing the same thing Gellman amnesia effect starting to wear off - people are realizing that they are not telling the truth Immigration and Border Crisis Texas vs Federal government Border security is removing barbed wire Mayor Eric Adams of NY i

January 19 2024 WEF Parody Oh Davos Kumbaya Jason with killer beats Davos not so cool anymore Earlier people would flex it, now apologize for it People fly in on private jets and tell people to stop consuming carbon They eat rich stuff and tell people to stop consuming Only things that became serious and went viral were Milei’s speech and Jamie Dimon’s comments (including saying Trump was mostly right) Milei Says in front of Klaus Schwab and others that collectivist spirit is to blame and extolled capitalism Dimon Said like Chamath that Trump was right on NATO, immigration, tax reform, mostly on China, might not like how he said things and his policies were largely sound and only look better since we abandoned them Davos was about high status, now its not useful anymore Its a glorified enterprise software sales conference - basically allows you to close very big deals because leaders of counter party are there too to get a deal done - pay $40K per ticket to get

January 13 2024 Friedberg shooting hoops US and allies attack Houthis Fired rockets Conflict in the middle east escalating - will result in war with Iran 😟 Big alliance - so Iran will be careful if they want to escalate China being affected or not - their ships are not being attacked, but their containers are on other ships that are being attacked This affects Europe and also China What is the need for the US to really get involved Wag the Dog reference - you start a war for the political benefits instead of necessity Are they deflecting from domestic struggles (non-Biden candidates doing well like Dean Phillips, some Republicans, etc)? American people might be exhausted by wars but media propagandizes for wars and rams it down people’s throats This might make the administration look good But they are so incompetent that they apparently couldn’t even find the Secretary of Defense - Lloyd Austin (having some health issues) Market data is mixed Inflation might be

January 5 2024 Friedberg bought radiation suits for his family and dogs Predictions! Biggest Political Winner Sacks Vladimir Putin - turned it around in 2023, stabilized his economy, gained upper hand militarily in Ukraine, will consolidate gains in Ukraine, US media’s stalemate narrative will be exposed as a lie, Russia will win the war - he will become more influential throughout the global south - he will be seen as a conquering hero Argentina said they will not join BRICS (Javier Milei is very pro american, pro Israel) - might be a one-off or a trend, TBD West made Putin a victor by plunging into a war without knowing what we were doing The global south will use Russia as a proxy to reject American authority (see Fiona Hill article) Last year said Asian American candidates will win Affirmative Action ruling - got it right Big mistake by Biden to antagonize Saudis but see how Putin was welcomed royally Friedberg Independent political party 1992 Ross Perot got 19-20