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All In Podcast Episode 199 Recap and Notes October 11 2024

October 11 2024

  • E200 meetups next week

  • allin.com !

    • Jason secured it

  • Hurricane season

    • Milton lands in Florida :(
    • Downgraded from Cat 5 to 3 to 1
    • 90% of the energy we get from the sun is absorbed into our oceans
    • Removing SO2 from cargo ships - causes acid rain so we removed it - is causing warming in the oceans - doubling of the rate of warming of the oceans
      • SO2 used to trigger cloud formation
    • So are we mean reverting then? Maybe!
    • So it seems we had artificial cooling due to SO2
    • When hurricanes hit land, they no longer have the hot ocean energy pumping them up
    • So went from Cat 5 to Cat 3
    • Helene - hot air hit cold mountain and caused a lot of precipitation - like 18 inches of rainfall
    • Economics
      • $500B-$1T of real estate on the Florida coastline
      • Untenable insurance risk now - because of frequency of hurricane events - now you can lose the value of your home once in 20-30 years instead of once in hundreds of years in the past
      • Florida state’s reinsurance capacity is bankrupt basically - $17B vs ~$40B loss
      • Not just economic problem - becomes a social problem with the frequency of home destruction
      • Will more states need bailouts? Because federal government might need to step in for Florida maybe - and then other states will ask for it also
      • Phoenix has more and more days every year with crazy hot temperatures
      • Cost of utilities also rising
      • So real estate markets in these climate affected places are massively overpriced
        • Ex: West Palm Beach, Malibu
      • Affects rent vs buy trend also
      • Sacks did well selling his house last year

  • AlphaFold wins Nobel Prize in Chemistry

    • Demis Hassabis, John Jumper
    • Became more likely after they won the Breakthrough Prize in 2023
    • Have already created a whole industry - will lead to transforming the world
    • Cool convergence of hard sciences and computer science

  • Geoffrey Hinton wins Nobel Prize for Physics

  • Jayter’s Ball

    • Jason Haters
    • :)
    • Conference with all the people who hate Jason Calacanis :P
    • Underserved and Passionate demographic!

  • Google anti-trust suit from DoJ

    • Breakup?
    • Not sure how its good for a big company to be broken up
    • Bell Labs built a lot of amazing technologies
    • Similarly Google also did the same
    • Instead of breaking them because they are big - remedy the bad behaviors
    • How will startups build Waymo, DeepMind, etc?
    • Just as viable competitors are hitting Google (ChatGPT, etc) - that’s when government steps in
    • Government will go after Google and Meta both probably
    • This is the time to build up the assets - like a ChatGPT competitor, etc
    • Dems probably will continue anti M&A attitude
    • Trump will most probably loosen things up
      • Lot more IPOs and M&A deals will happen

  • VC giveback

    • CRV giving back $275M to investors (from $500M round)
      • Market for mature startups has soured
    • Peter Thiel also did something similar in the past
    • NASDAQ raises $800B a year - private therefore needs to raise $1T-$1.2T to be viable
    • Bad VCs make stuff worse for everyone also :(
    • Sacks thinks this is the best time to have a growth fund right now

  • TikTok as news source

    • 4 in 10 young adults get their news from TikTok



  • Election Forecasting

    • Polymarket showing Trump lead
    • Nate Silver has Kamala lead
    • Multiple sources have multiple different outcomes
    • Sacks predicted Harris doom loop with interviews and polls

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