October 11 2024
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E200 meetups next week
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- Jason secured it
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Hurricane season
- Milton lands in Florida :(
- Downgraded from Cat 5 to 3 to 1
- 90% of the energy we get from the sun is absorbed into our oceans
- Removing SO2 from cargo ships - causes acid rain so we removed it - is causing warming in the oceans - doubling of the rate of warming of the oceans
- SO2 used to trigger cloud formation
- So are we mean reverting then? Maybe!
- So it seems we had artificial cooling due to SO2
- When hurricanes hit land, they no longer have the hot ocean energy pumping them up
- So went from Cat 5 to Cat 3
- Helene - hot air hit cold mountain and caused a lot of precipitation - like 18 inches of rainfall
- Economics
- $500B-$1T of real estate on the Florida coastline
- Untenable insurance risk now - because of frequency of hurricane events - now you can lose the value of your home once in 20-30 years instead of once in hundreds of years in the past
- Florida state’s reinsurance capacity is bankrupt basically - $17B vs ~$40B loss
- Not just economic problem - becomes a social problem with the frequency of home destruction
- Will more states need bailouts? Because federal government might need to step in for Florida maybe - and then other states will ask for it also
- Phoenix has more and more days every year with crazy hot temperatures
- Cost of utilities also rising
- So real estate markets in these climate affected places are massively overpriced
- Ex: West Palm Beach, Malibu
- Affects rent vs buy trend also
- Sacks did well selling his house last year
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AlphaFold wins Nobel Prize in Chemistry
- Demis Hassabis, John Jumper
- Became more likely after they won the Breakthrough Prize in 2023
- Have already created a whole industry - will lead to transforming the world
- Cool convergence of hard sciences and computer science
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Geoffrey Hinton wins Nobel Prize for Physics
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Jayter’s Ball
- Jason Haters
- :)
- Conference with all the people who hate Jason Calacanis :P
- Underserved and Passionate demographic!
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Google anti-trust suit from DoJ
- Breakup?
- Not sure how its good for a big company to be broken up
- Bell Labs built a lot of amazing technologies
- Similarly Google also did the same
- Instead of breaking them because they are big - remedy the bad behaviors
- How will startups build Waymo, DeepMind, etc?
- Just as viable competitors are hitting Google (ChatGPT, etc) - that’s when government steps in
- Government will go after Google and Meta both probably
- This is the time to build up the assets - like a ChatGPT competitor, etc
- Dems probably will continue anti M&A attitude
- Trump will most probably loosen things up
- Lot more IPOs and M&A deals will happen
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VC giveback
- CRV giving back $275M to investors (from $500M round)
- Market for mature startups has soured
- Peter Thiel also did something similar in the past
- NASDAQ raises $800B a year - private therefore needs to raise $1T-$1.2T to be viable
- Bad VCs make stuff worse for everyone also :(
- Sacks thinks this is the best time to have a growth fund right now
- CRV giving back $275M to investors (from $500M round)
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TikTok as news source
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4 in 10 young adults get their news from TikTok
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Election Forecasting
- Polymarket showing Trump lead
- Nate Silver has Kamala lead
- Multiple sources have multiple different outcomes
- Sacks predicted Harris doom loop with interviews and polls
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