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All In Podcast Episode 264 Recap and Notes March 13 2026

March 13 2026 Brad Gerstner in for Friedberg Brad got a shout out at the State of the Union Trump Accounts 100K accounts claimed per day so far Millions of kids got their accounts already More amazing announcements upcoming Iran War and fallout Oil prices are up New Ayatollah claims Strait of Hormuz will stay closed BG expects shorter duration of the impacts because Trump doesn’t care about democracy so much (Cheney like) as achieving the goals Chamath thinks this shouldn’t get worse Sacks also thinks war should end soon but more right leaning folks want the war to go much longer Iran could then escalate to hurting oil and gas infra of the rest of the middle east countries So open the strait but can’t refine oil? Also Desalination plants in the region are soft targets This would be catastrophic - would destroy the gulf states from a humanitarian perspective Israel is also getting hit badly - so it doesn’t help to prolong the war Escalation coul...
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All In Interview - Paul Atkins and Michael Selig - Recap and Notes - March 11 2026

March 11 2026 Paul Atkins - head of SEC Michael Selig - head of CFTC SEC top priorities Agenda is to make IPOs great again - focus on litigation Threats of class action lawsuits Weaponization of corporate governance CFTC top priorities Roll back regulation by enforcement actions of previous administration Purpose fit regulation Prediction markets Needs to be careful about the kinds of contracts that are allowed Markets are a source of truth but insider trading is illegal in the US Accredited investing requirements are in question now Why not expand access to more investors 3 core types of participants Hedgers Speculators Market makers SEC and CFTC both have rules the other would like to have US capital markets are the envy of the world Regulatory system in Japan, Europe etc is not very flexible
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All In Interview - Graham Allison - Recap and Notes - March 9 2026

All In Interview - Graham Allison - March 9 2026 (from NotebookLM) I. The US-Israel-Iran Conflict Current State: High uncertainty ("fog of war"); worsened by unpredictable leaders like Trump and Netanyahu ("fog machines"). Military Execution vs. Post-War Reality: US/Israeli military and intelligence capabilities are unmatched, but history (Iraq, Afghanistan) proves regime change is extremely difficult. Breaking things is easy; building is hard. "Bibi's War": Allison compares Israeli PM Netanyahu to Captain Ahab (Moby Dick) due to his multi-decade obsession with destroying the Iranian regime. Allison considers himself pro-Israel but anti-Bibi, noting Netanyahu is damaging Israel's democracy and alienating young American voters. Trump's Motivations: Erratic and impulsive rather than part of a grand strategy. He saw a tactical window to strike Iranian leaders in public. Global Ripple Effects (Unintended Consequences): Economic shockw...
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All In Podcast Episode 263 Recap and Notes March 6 2026

March 6 2026 Emil Michael - Under Secretary of War Operational axe/Fixer/Rainmaker for Travis Kalanick at Uber Chamath having fun on Twitter Iran War US and Israel attacked Saturday Trump claims this is to nerf Iran’s ability to develop ICBMs Iran is a prodigious drone maker This likely is to hit Iran and China’s relationship China is currently projecting its lowest growth in 30 years With rising unemployment (youth especially), lower growth, higher population, they are in trouble China energy mix This could hem in China at an opportune moment to get a Grand Bargain with China Rules of Engagement have changed - they were punishing and needed to have a legal understanding - those things have changed now Drones are increasingly important in warfare, security, surveillance, golden dome He told Anthropic that if you don’t let US use the models, it will just hurt us because anyway their model is being stolen by the Chinese Jason claims he’s a moder...
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All In Interview - Ray Dalio - Recap and Notes - March 3 2026

March 3 2026 Ray Dalio 3rd time back Had made some good input on last appearance just when Trump was getting inaugurated Deficit was hoped to be reined in to 3% but now its 6% (deficit to gdp) Backdrop - sadly too much war and irreconciliable differences between both parties Foreign buyers will be hesitant then Dollar denominated debt is already a large percentage of their portfolio Geopolitical risks also there - debtor and creditor could have conflict (US/China, US/Europe even?) These kinds of cycles have happened repeatedly through history Structurally a little difficult to do DOGE kind of efforts at this stage Gold Not some precious metal that people speculate on - its the second largest currency that central banks choose to keep Distinguish wealth from money Wealth you can’t spend (buildings, etc) You have to sell it to spend Money you can spend Gold could be considered to now have reached a fair value vs being undervalued earlier Countries and people shoul...
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All In Podcast Episode 262 Recap and Notes February 27 2026

February 27 2026 Chamath launched his own YouTube channel Claude’s hit list 3 for 3 in tanking different market sectors in February Feb 3 - Legal plugin for Claude Cowork Thomson Reuters, Legalzoom etc down Feb 20 - Claude Code Security CrowdStrike, etc down Feb 23 - Claude announces COBOL modernizing IBM down Some of this is smart finance players changing positions likely Markets are in “if” mindset vs “when” mindset - can AI models disrupt the market? So when you don’t know how to price it, you want a massive margin of safety PEs go down, Revenue multiples go down Viral Citrini AI report also might have had an effect Were there any shorters who had something to do with the article? Derek Thompson response about AI narratives being science fiction ideas is a good one Natural for market to react like this given uncertainty in future vs how reliable SaaS used to be Is there really enough consumptive capacity on the other side of AI doing eve...
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All In Podcast Episode 261 Recap and Notes February 13 2026

February 13 2026 AI updates New study shows workers using AI work harder but burn out more Moving from task based jobs to purpose based jobs Matt Shumer article went viral - Something Big is Happening Early adopter employees will excel and replace existing tools/stacks bottom up Jason tweet to learn OpenClaw went viral Is On Prem the new Cloud? Seems this might be the best way for companies to protect themselves What about employees uploading information to the public LLMs? Even if they get caught isn’t it too late? We thought the models would improve recursively - but it seems the output is recursive Jason’s replicant infrastructure is quite sophisticated - using Opus 4.6 to orchestrate to all the Kimi agents hosted on Mac minis locally Creating central Ultron to do lot of the company’s work AWS Bedrock could be too expensive When do tokens outpace salary? Prediction Markets A billion bets on Kalshi, 700M on Polymarket, etc - hit a big high during SuperBowl ...
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