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All In Podcast Episode 280 Recap and Notes July 10 2026

July 10 2026

  • Friedberg out on vacation, Brad Gerstner in
  • IPOs
    • SpaceX - already 7th largest company in the world
    • OpenAI, Anthropic expected IPOs hoped to be quite successful (Brad is an investor of course)
    • Intelligence is the largest TAM we have seen in the history of the world
    • Inspite of the open source buzz, frontier models are getting higher share of enterprise spend
    • Case for open source
      • Some companies won’t have the revenue growth to justify frontier model cost
      • Some countries will be happy with the just good enough open source and will prefer sovereignty
    • Case against
      • Complicated to setup open source (bittensor, openrouter, etc)
    • Meta released Muse for coding
    • Sacks joins the show
    • CTOs are trying to control token cost
    • Jesse Zhang Decagon boss had a good blog post on this - how to think about optimizing model costs (when stuff is new you want the best model, when stuff is mature you want to use the cheap model that you have fine tuned)
    • Nikesh Arora tweets were also talking about having model fungibility
    • Databricks’ Ali Ghodsi talking about how the harness you choose can reduce model costs
  • China AI regulation
    • Some reports (Reuters?) that CCP wants to restrict export of Chinese AI
    • Like Manus wasn’t allowed to really move to Singapore
    • Should China stop their open source export?
    • Maybe its just staying open till you catch up to the frontier and then you go closed to capture all the value
    • Maybe if there is some Chinese doomers their progress could be stopped/slowed
    • US is also behind on energy production - apparently we are 3 entire Californias worth of power generation short (even just for regular non-AI use cases)
  • Trump Accounts
    • Brad Gerstner has been leading the charge
    • There is now a Trump Accounts app - #1 in the App store in some category
    • 1.5M accounts created in the first 24 hours
    • QR code for each account - anyone can send money to it
    • Michael and Susan Dell and then Gwynne Shotwell donated towards this cause
    • Micron donated for their employees
    • Brad donated towards all kids in Indiana
      • $100M
    • This could be the largest direct philanthropic platform in the history of the country
      • No charitable middle layer directing who gets what
    • Employers can also contribute some portion
    • Parents, grandparents, etc can contribute - $5000 limit per year
    • Since folks can directly give to all kids - even poor kids - hopefully grifting NGO “charities” become irrelevant
    • Vlad Tenev, Joe Gebbia get lot of credit

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