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All In Podcast Episode 271 Recap and Notes May 1 2026

May 1 2026

  • Fun with names

  • OpenAI revenue and growth issues

    • Apparently missed user target, revenue targets (internal)

    • Reported issues between Altman and Friar - prompted joint statement maybe

    • They are almost trading at the price equal to their spending commitments

    • On the other hand, GPT-5.5 is doing very well and it seems their compute commitments may be saving the day for the coding use case in Enterprise

    • The key chokepoint is power - they don’t have enough to get tokens out

    • Too much red tape

    • 40% of data center jobs have been canceled recently - why won’t that negative trend continue?

    • This will benefit the Hyperscalers - Oracle, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon

    • This could help Elon with xAI/SpaceX/Cursor

    • 4 : 2 : 1 typical market share of a mature market

    • Cool MIT paper shows we could reduce inference cost by 10x with no loss of accuracy

    • This could increase usage

    • Maybe Google has cut into OpenAI’s consumer market share

    • Clearly these companies are constantly 1-upping each other

    • Competition brings out the best in everyone

    • Also going for OpenAI is that their latest GPT 5.5 is as capable as Anthropic’s Mythos

    • These new powerful models could help cyber defense and help us get to a new equilibrium of cybersecurity

    • Chinese models will also get there soon if they’re not there already

  • Elon vs Sam lawsuit

    • Non profit vs for profit
    • Greg Brockman diary is spicy
    • Sidebar: Rumination is the path to unhappiness
      • Retardmaxxing, stop writing

  • AIS 2026

    • Could be last one in LA

  • Big tech earnings

    • Google did great

    • Nvidia did great

    • Crazy spending plans by Hyperscalers

    • Giving up on FCF

    • These companies might become industrial very soon

    • So instead follow the dollars and see which companies are getting it and buy those companies

    • And now Cisco is back at their peak - same when there was a bubble last time?

    • But Dark Fiber vs Dark GPUs is different

    • This might be a bull thesis for AI

    • AI was 75% of US GDP growth in Q1

    • AI is as Balaji says middle to middle, not end to end - you need people - CEOs are not going to supervise 1000 agents - you need people at all layers of the stack

    • So productivity boom will not cause job loss

    • American economy is AI growth - so if you want AI to stop you want US economy to lose

  • AI deleted production database

    • Showing that software developers are not going to be replaced anytime soon

    • As Aaron Levie says, we will have 100X more software and hire more software developers but won’t be vibe coding these people away

  • Peptide data

    • Some amazing results from a recent trial - weight loss, diabetes help, etc
    • Some side effects were there too (nausea, etc)
    • Some of these - there is evidence - could be a de-aging drug
    • This is interesting - doctors/FDA need to evaluate the results so folks can get benefits
    • ro.co Sparks discussion

  • Monsanto Supreme Court trial

    • Friedberg blown away by professionalism and majesty
    • Supreme Court rules on questions of law (lower court has decided on the facts)
    • Each hearing is just 1 hour, 30 mins a side - you’re on a shot clock
    • The case itself could have interesting ramifications about States’ rights vs Federal regulatory bodies
    • Enjoy it while it lasts until the court gets packed and ruined
      • Apparently in a report its claimed that James Carville already said Dems will pack the court and make it 13 judges

 

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