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All In Podcast Episode 284 Recap and Notes August 7 2026

August 7 2026

  • Brad Gerstner joins the show, swaps with Chamath
  • Google AI Brain Drain
    • Demis Hassabis is now Chair of DeepMind
    • Jeff Dean, Sanjay Ghemawat and 2 others left to start their own company
    • Stock dropped and market cap wipeout as a result
    • This might be a signal from Google that ROIC in model development might not be the way to go but maybe model compute, etc
    • Compute is High Alpha, Low Beta but Model Development is (could be) High Alpha but also High Beta
    • Seems market for frontier intelligence has become a duopoly (they can charge a premium) which is 1 market - and there seems to be another market for secondary quality intelligence - so market is bifurcated
    • The return on intelligence is very high so when you’re in a competitive situation you will pay for the premium model - the cheaper models are like Android, sure they work but everyone still prefers to buy iPhones
  • SpaceX earnings report
    • Stock down
    • Impressive earnings
    • Compute business is doing well
    • Starlink seems interesting
    • Starship is crucial to Starlink in terms of improving it - launching V3 vs V2 right now
  • AIS 2026
  • SaaSPocalypse over?
    • Airtable acquisition - sold to Bending Spoons - sold for less than it raised?
    • Airtable spinoff HyperAgent - maybe talent went there and existing business goes to Bending Spoons for private equity play
    • Rumor is that only 30% of Sales team was making quota so maybe one conclusion is that the Board’s insistence on changing PLG to traditional sales motion didn’t work out
    • Not all SaaS is going to get obliterated - Leopold was short some of them and even that trade went against him
  • Chinese AI labs buying US training data?
    • Not sure its such a bad thing unless its some kind of dual use (has military purpose also)

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