All In Podcast Episode 279 Recap and Notes July 3 2026

July 3 2026

• Palantir Nvidia partnership announced
  • Karp appearance on CNBC went viral
  • Made the case that companies don’t trust the big labs
  • AI Sovereignty importance highlighted
  • Jason has been making this case for months
  • Sacks made an interesting case on X too
  • Karp’s case in succinct terms (from Palantir X account):
    • Palantir CEO Alex Karp on what customers actually want, the real business of frontier labs, and the importance of open source models:
      • "What the technical customers want is control over their compute, their models, their data stack, and their alpha. They want to know they own the means of production, and it's not being transferred to someone else."
  • Apparently Figma got rug-pulled/blind-sided by Anthropic in this way (their stock has fallen 50% after Claude Design)
  • Claude Design, Claude Code (apparently started after noticing Cursor’s success), etc all seem similar plays
  • This is like the Microsoft play
  • Google also did something similar in the past with their search insights
  • You are mortgaging your future if you’re sharing all your information with these big labs

  • Recent BCG report is showing that roughly half of large US firms can’t deliver returns equivalent to beating cost of capital (that has gone up to like 8-11%)

  • Interesting point made by Xiaoyin Qu

    “I went a dinner a few weeks ago with a bunch of enterprise execs who told me "we will never use Chinese models." "Even if it's 100x cheaper?" "No, we care about safety and security."

    1. They don't understand when they host open-source models with their own GPUs or US data centers, they won't share their data to China.
    2. They are giving away all their data to OpenAI and Anthropic rather than owning it privately themselves.
    3. They don't understand math. 100x is a big number and lots of profits.

    It's almost July 2026 now. If your execs still talk like that, fire them now.”

  • Chamath 8090 experiment showed costs for some use cases drop 16x with open source alternatives (at 3x slower speed)

  • If you are a reasonable company why aren’t you finding access to this intelligence in a way that is not giving your business away

  • Friedberg points out how Anthropic has an effort going on to develop a life sciences model by getting access to life sciences companies’ labs/lab data and people are waking up to the fact that they don’t want to give it away

  • So companies are deciding they are better off developing their own models and weights

    • Best way to leverage your own proprietary data

  • Lot of these big companies are starting up FDE orgs

  • Each employee might get a workstation with local models in the future

  • AI job loss narrative is a scam

    • AI is creating far more jobs than it is destroying

    • Politicians want to create this narrative so they can push their socialist policies

    • The data is not matching their narrative so they are losing credibility so they are doubling down

    • Narrative violation

      
      
      

    • Chamath claims 8090 deployments haven’t seen a single layoff

    • Human in the loop will be more valuable and you will pay more premium for that

    • Figure just demoed amazing assembly line / packaging task - ran without issue for 200 hours instead of 8 (target)

  • Fable 5 is back

  • AIS 2026

  • SCOTUS upholds automatic birthright citizenship

    • Birth tourism cases have happened in the past
    • Related to the 14th amendment which happened in ~1860s
    • Ruling has made it so that its hard for Congress to legislate this in anyway
    • Social welfare is a big deal - 1/3rd of Ellis Island immigrants returned - there was no welfare at the time
    • DSA types want no deportations and full illegal immigration
    • Socialism is on the rise in America - they just had success in Colorado also - so its not just NY centric
    • Newsom’s “balanced budget”
      • CA state of the state
        • Ballooning costs
          • State budget jumped $250B 2019 → $355B 2026
        • Accounting tricks
          • Allowed to count borrowing as paying down the difference
        • Revenue dependency problem
          • Personal income tax is $142B
          • Top 1% - $70B comes from ~150,000 people - highest tax rate in the country - 14+%
          • Top 1000 people in CA pay ~$22B/year > 11% of state income
          • Corporate Tax is 8.9% - $43B - one of the highest in the country (Texas 0, Florida 5.5%)
        • Big exodus and spiraling
          • Since 2019 at least 15 F500 companies have moved out
          • 2100 companies mid/large have moved out
          • At least 5% of CA jobs have been lost as these companies have moved out of state
          • Average annual exodus of 1-1.5% of personal income is leaving the state every year right now (after 10 years 15% will leave so Billionaire Tax will hit more)
          • State has to go further down to get more money - increasing sales taxes this year - 8% sales tax on software is new, new tax on health care insurance, made temporary top income tax bracket permanent (which was started in 2012 at ~13% is not ~14% and permanent)
        • Looming Unaccounted liabilities
          • CA has $1.4T in public debt
          • State has reported $664B in unfunded liabilities
          • CA is on the brink of defaults so significant that if Federal government is asked to bail out, other red states will ask “why should we pay for CA?”
          • AOC will win Presidency to bailout CA
          • You will face a crisis of the union
        • Incredible tweet comparing FL and IL: https://x.com/JeanneIves/status/2072165726526308719
        • The only way this might get fixed is with a red wave in super blue california which is a pipe dream - there will be a giant final confiscation
      • Leftism is shaping to be all about how to separate you from your money
        • Ex: Mackenzie Bezos donations haven’t solved any of the socialist/leftist causes
      • Newsom is dropping in the polls because he isn’t considered left enough
      • Happy 250th birthday USA