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All In Podcast Episode 283 Recap and Notes July 31 2026

July 31 2026

  • Chip stocks crash and Situational Awareness Margin Call
    • Had to sell his entire public portfolio - bought by Citadel/Ken Griffin
    • Trading on leverage very dangerous
    • South Korea also there was something similar happening
    • Does it seem like it revealed anything about the fundamentals? TBD
    • Leverage is the only way smart people go broke - Buffett/Munger 1 of them said it
    • Leopold Aschenbrenner has made a good bull case for the AI boom
  • China impressive manufacturing
    • They might have their own EUV machines and don’t need ASML
    • They are also building memory chips
    • They are building amazing nuclear reactors - latest one has 580 ft magnet
      • Fusion reactor - but this needs only saltwater
      • Will the whole world be covered by solar by the time this reactor comes online?
    • America energy situation even more dire - will be 6 CAs short of energy
    • Go long electrons
  • Frontier Labs write letter “Slow Down AI”
    • “Pacing the Frontier”
    • They want to slow down how fast AI can improve itself (automated AI development)
    • Dwarkesh blog on compute costs increasing - the frontier models’ entrenchment will only increase - harder for smaller models to compete with these rising costs
    • Zuck makes a good point that these labs are doomer-maxing and at the same point are rushing to build these tools
    • Hilarious how these AI companies are pretending to be our saviors - a high degree of self-importance
    • They don’t care about being regulated as much as they feel they need to guide the regulation
    • Anthropic doubled political donations in mid term cycle
  • Frontier labs are “burning books”?
    • Is this an industrial scale distillation attack?
      • Attack in the sense that the authors never agreed to them
    • Google books lawsuit decades ago settled much later in their favor
  • Socialism
    • NYC government run grocery stores
    • Friedberg thinks it will work well in the short term
    • NYC annual city budget is already $125B - these stores are cheap
    • Trump hasn’t helped with the federal budget deficit
  • Science Corner - Mapping the brain
    • Network geometry of the Drosophilia brain - paper from Budapest
    • Fruit fly
    • Is consciousness a function of multi dimensional reality?

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