October 25 2024
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Jason took Chamath’s sweater 🙂
- and everything else 😉
- Next to Sacks’s house 🙂
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Friedberg’s moderating because Jason’s traveling
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AllIn Holiday Party!
- Sacks doesn’t want to come - he likes celebrating the pandemic 6 months a year 😛
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Markets
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Bonds are falling
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Gold is going up
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SP500 is also going up
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BTC is also up
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US dollar is strong
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Seems markets are predicting a Trump win from a toss up election
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Perception that Trump plan will drive better economic growth than the Harris plan
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Trillions of dollars are moving because they’re predicting a Trump win
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BTC and Gold go up because of inflation hedge
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Paul Tudor Jones
- Long gold, BTC, commodities
- zero fixed income
- “all roads lead to inflation”
- Doesn’t want to own treasuries apparently
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Even Stan Druckemiller is apparently short US treasuries 20% of his portfolio or something
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Market doesn’t think inflation is whipped
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Interest on national debt has gone parabolic
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20-25% of Federal revenue is going towards debt service
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Market doesn’t like US fiscal picture 😟
- Too much debt
- Too much inflation
- Higher interest rates for longer
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Both parties are prone to spending
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Per american $3500/year in interest 😟
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Top companies are not hiring much but are growing a lot
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People who own equities and properties will do very well the next 5-10 years
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$68T of total debt across US
- 6% average interest rate
- $4T a year - on an economy that is $29T a year
- 15% of economy is going towards debt service
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This is a global problem
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What will US do?
- China is holding less of US treasuries
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Gen Z
- Lot of people are opting out of the American dream
- Lot of young men are looking for alternatives to their job
- Crypto
- Options
- etc
- Looking for alternatives to capitalism - don’t look at their job as what will give them money
- 57% of young people want to be an influencer
- You have to burn the boats - can’t always worry about having multiple pots
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Asset re-allocation
- Chamath is trying to sell his SaaS startups in secondary - not great offers
- Commodities
- More fungible ones unlike Gold might do well
- Mining of natural resources, etc
- Agricultural resources, etc
- Equities are a toss up
- Milei has controlled inflation in Argentina
- Economy has shrunk
- Unemployment has risen
- Might have to choose between inflation and unemployment
- Can also argue that cutting government spending will make private sector grow - it can absorb those people - it will be more efficient
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Election Update
- Data is positive for Trump
- Nate Silver says 50-50
- Rhetoric is getting nastier
- Behavior of campaigns is showing who is confident and who is panicking
- Democrats should have run a speed run primary
- The side that is losing will really panic
- Already have done the A|B test with both administrations
- Everyone doesn’t have to stay in Jan 6 mode
- Her own side is throwing her under the bus - Anderson Cooper had to preserve his credibility in the town hall against Kamala, Axelrod called her word salad city
- AC exposed her worse than Bret Baier ever could coz he’s friendly, not adversarial
- Similar issue happened with Biden debate
- Either she defends his record OR be clear about what you would do differently
- Jason can do a better job as her campaign manager
- Trump is at a 3-1 fund raising disadvantage
- Extraordinary achievement to still be ahead of her
- Apparently Dave Portnoy turned down the chance to interview Harris
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Starbucks struggling
- Pour your heart into it - Howard Schultz biography - good read apparently
- They started as a great coffee experience
- Then moved to fancy sugary drinks
- Lost their way
- New CEO who did well at Chipotle and Taco Bell seems promising
- But business is in trouble because of larger trends - see Eli Lilly stock vs Starbucks stock
- GLP-1 vs Sugar
- Is Apple similar?
- But they don’t have the competition and bigger picture issues that Starbucks does
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