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All In Podcast Episode 201 Recap and Notes October 25 2024

 October 25 2024

  • Jason took Chamath’s sweater 🙂

    • and everything else 😉
    • Next to Sacks’s house 🙂

  • Friedberg’s moderating because Jason’s traveling

  • AllIn Holiday Party!

    • Sacks doesn’t want to come - he likes celebrating the pandemic 6 months a year 😛

  • Markets

    • Bonds are falling

    • Gold is going up

    • SP500 is also going up

    • BTC is also up

    • US dollar is strong

    • Seems markets are predicting a Trump win from a toss up election

    • Perception that Trump plan will drive better economic growth than the Harris plan

    • Trillions of dollars are moving because they’re predicting a Trump win

    • BTC and Gold go up because of inflation hedge

    • Paul Tudor Jones

      • Long gold, BTC, commodities
      • zero fixed income
      • “all roads lead to inflation”
      • Doesn’t want to own treasuries apparently

    • Even Stan Druckemiller is apparently short US treasuries 20% of his portfolio or something

    • Market doesn’t think inflation is whipped

    • Interest on national debt has gone parabolic

    • 20-25% of Federal revenue is going towards debt service

    • Market doesn’t like US fiscal picture 😟

      • Too much debt
      • Too much inflation
      • Higher interest rates for longer

    • Both parties are prone to spending

    • Per american $3500/year in interest 😟

    • Top companies are not hiring much but are growing a lot

    • People who own equities and properties will do very well the next 5-10 years

    • $68T of total debt across US

      • 6% average interest rate
      • $4T a year - on an economy that is $29T a year
      • 15% of economy is going towards debt service

    • This is a global problem

    • What will US do?

      • China is holding less of US treasuries


  • Gen Z

    • Lot of people are opting out of the American dream
    • Lot of young men are looking for alternatives to their job
      • Crypto
      • Options
      • etc
    • Looking for alternatives to capitalism - don’t look at their job as what will give them money
    • 57% of young people want to be an influencer
    • You have to burn the boats - can’t always worry about having multiple pots

  • Asset re-allocation

    • Chamath is trying to sell his SaaS startups in secondary - not great offers
    • Commodities
      • More fungible ones unlike Gold might do well
      • Mining of natural resources, etc
      • Agricultural resources, etc
      • Equities are a toss up
    • Milei has controlled inflation in Argentina
      • Economy has shrunk
      • Unemployment has risen
      • Might have to choose between inflation and unemployment
    • Can also argue that cutting government spending will make private sector grow - it can absorb those people - it will be more efficient

  • Election Update

    • Data is positive for Trump
    • Nate Silver says 50-50
    • Rhetoric is getting nastier
    • Behavior of campaigns is showing who is confident and who is panicking
    • Democrats should have run a speed run primary
    • The side that is losing will really panic
    • Already have done the A|B test with both administrations
    • Everyone doesn’t have to stay in Jan 6 mode
    • Her own side is throwing her under the bus - Anderson Cooper had to preserve his credibility in the town hall against Kamala, Axelrod called her word salad city
      • AC exposed her worse than Bret Baier ever could coz he’s friendly, not adversarial
    • Similar issue happened with Biden debate
    • Either she defends his record OR be clear about what you would do differently
    • Jason can do a better job as her campaign manager
    • Trump is at a 3-1 fund raising disadvantage
      • Extraordinary achievement to still be ahead of her
    • Apparently Dave Portnoy turned down the chance to interview Harris

  • Starbucks struggling

    • Pour your heart into it - Howard Schultz biography - good read apparently
    • They started as a great coffee experience
    • Then moved to fancy sugary drinks
    • Lost their way
    • New CEO who did well at Chipotle and Taco Bell seems promising
    • But business is in trouble because of larger trends - see Eli Lilly stock vs Starbucks stock
    • GLP-1 vs Sugar
    • Is Apple similar?
      • But they don’t have the competition and bigger picture issues that Starbucks does

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