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All In Podcast Episode 223 Recap and Notes April 11 2025

April 11 2025

  • Sacks is back

  • No Friedberg 😟

  • Ezra Klein joins the show

    • Podcast of The Ezra Klein show
    • Founder of Vox
    • Abundance book with Derek Thompson

  • Larry Summers joins the show

    • Fmr President of Harvard
    • Govt appointments

  • Trump tariffs and China positioning

    • Wild swings in tariff position
    • Stock market hit
    • Volatility
    • Still lot of tariffs in place
    • Markets have lost ~$4T-$6T
    • Could be worse if you count how workers are hurt
    • If they really didn’t care about Wall St then why were they happy about market going up a couple of days ago?
    • This can reduce demand, increase unemployment, increase prices - which is all bad for people
    • US is trading like an emerging market country right now
      • Zeitgeist around America changing to that of Peron’s Argentina style
    • Authoritarian tendencies, cronyism, etc
    • Counter
      • World is happily embracing 10% tariffs for US
      • China isolated
      • Can’t achieve this by asking nicely - that’s not how things work
    • Stock market is crash or mean reversion?
    • How do we judge success?
      • US reindustrialization
      • Chips - US must control supply chain
      • Energy
      • Rare earth minerals
      • Pharma APIs - design and manufacture anything needed to help Americans when they get sick
    • Impact of China into WTO
      • Clinton’s claims
        • US exports to China increase
        • Export democracy
        • Improve national security
    • Biden administration approach to regulation was too restrictive - they had the right goal but bad specific policies
    • Do we need specific policies or targeted policies?
    • Seems Trump advocates are conflating a lot of benefits of tariffs with other adjacents goals like combating dumping, etc - why project - be specific
    • Is it rational to declare a new era of American economic order?
    • Good analogy by Ezra to Mark Danner article about Iraq war - everyone projecting their own goals for the war - coming together as a coalition
    • PNTR - Permanent New Trade Relations

  • Recession chances

    • Almost definitely will happen (might have already been there)
    • Bretton Woods 2.0

  • Democrat party future

    • Cost to build housing in CA vs TX is 2x (4.4x if public subsidies)

  • Breakthrough prize

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