April 11 2025
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Sacks is back
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No Friedberg 😟
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Ezra Klein joins the show
- Podcast of The Ezra Klein show
- Founder of Vox
- Abundance book with Derek Thompson
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Larry Summers joins the show
- Fmr President of Harvard
- Govt appointments
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Trump tariffs and China positioning
- Wild swings in tariff position
- Stock market hit
- Volatility
- Still lot of tariffs in place
- Markets have lost ~$4T-$6T
- Could be worse if you count how workers are hurt
- If they really didn’t care about Wall St then why were they happy about market going up a couple of days ago?
- This can reduce demand, increase unemployment, increase prices - which is all bad for people
- US is trading like an emerging market country right now
- Zeitgeist around America changing to that of Peron’s Argentina style
- Authoritarian tendencies, cronyism, etc
- Counter
- World is happily embracing 10% tariffs for US
- China isolated
- Can’t achieve this by asking nicely - that’s not how things work
- Stock market is crash or mean reversion?
- How do we judge success?
- US reindustrialization
- Chips - US must control supply chain
- Energy
- Rare earth minerals
- Pharma APIs - design and manufacture anything needed to help Americans when they get sick
- Impact of China into WTO
- Clinton’s claims
- US exports to China increase
- Export democracy
- Improve national security
- Clinton’s claims
- Biden administration approach to regulation was too restrictive - they had the right goal but bad specific policies
- Do we need specific policies or targeted policies?
- Seems Trump advocates are conflating a lot of benefits of tariffs with other adjacents goals like combating dumping, etc - why project - be specific
- Is it rational to declare a new era of American economic order?
- Good analogy by Ezra to Mark Danner article about Iraq war - everyone projecting their own goals for the war - coming together as a coalition
- PNTR - Permanent New Trade Relations
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Recession chances
- Almost definitely will happen (might have already been there)
- Bretton Woods 2.0
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Democrat party future
- Cost to build housing in CA vs TX is 2x (4.4x if public subsidies)
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Breakthrough prize
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