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All In Podcast Episode 193 Recap and Notes August 23 2024

August 23 2024



  • Sit to pee

  • BLS revises job numbers down ~30%

    • 818000 down - March 2023 - Mar/Apr 2023

    • 2.9M → 2.1M

    • Largest revision since 2009 (GFC)

    • Professional and business services down

    • Sacks called it




  • MIT publishes admissions data post affirmative action end

    • Racial composition has changed from previously
    • Tier 2 schools’s students might be better than Tier 1 schools’s because they are not corrupted by woke DEI nonsense, are less entitled and work harder

  • Election

    • Kamala doing better in the polls (Silver Bulletin shows her kinda in the lead)
    • But Polymarket has Trump ahead
    • Polling vs Prediction Markets is interesting

  • Comparison of tickets

    • Private vs Public
    • JD Vance is historically the most unpopular VP pick
    • Media coverage of Harris is 84% +ve and Trump is 89% -ve
    • Walz and Harris have only ever worked for the government
    • Vance and Trump have worked in private business
    • Gina Raimundo caught being unaware of BLS - reacted with shock to jobs report
    • These government employees have no clue how to create value in society
    • Need to care about the future
      • Having kids makes you care about the future
      • Being an investor makes you care about the future
      • Maybe home ownership also helps?
    • Democrats have Bernie and Warren have as their heart
    • Republicans have become right wing populist
    • Democrats are left wing populist
      • Soak the rich, hate the billionaires

  • Harris backs Biden’s tax plans

    • Proposals

      • 25% wealth tax on people over $100M in assets
        • Including unrealized gains
      • 28% corporate tax rate (up from 21%)
        • Trump had proposed 15%
      • 4% stock buyback tax (currently ~1%?)

    • Enough people don’t feel the positive effects of capitalism so want to push back against it

    • History of Federal Tax rates



    • In the 40s and 50s tax rates were higher but those people didn’t have many options at the time of moving out, etc

    • Realization is important in the tax code

      • You have a price
      • You have liquidity to pay the tax

    • Whole new tax bureaucracy is going to be created

    • US GDP is $25T

    • Federal Budget proposed is $7.2T

    • State + Local is about $4.2T

    • So government budget is half of GDP

    • That’s why socialism is becoming more acceptable

    • Mitt Romney said way back when that ~47% of Americans are government recipients - got hammered for it

    • If the balance is 51% - then it becomes socialist

    • Government workers vote overwhelmingly for Democrats



    • CA unions almost always vote Democrat

    • American capitalism required a middle class

    • But globalization has hollowed out this middle class

    • Factory workers lost their jobs

    • Inflation Reduction Act was a huge bonanza for energy investors

    • $400B is best case what unrealized gains tax would raise (CBO estimate) - thats like 20% of interest spending - so how will it help?

    • Investment class will emerge to help entrepreneur exit the US

      • Other countries will pay that tax

    • This happened in France - French citizens left

    • This will not stop at rich people - when many of them leave and government doesn’t raise as much as it thinks, they will come for everyone else

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