August 2 2024
- Chamath frees the button
- Jason out sick with Covid
- Friedberg moderates!!
- Kamala Harris is doing well in the polls
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Nate Silver’s model is quite favorable to Harris now, she’s gaining on Trump
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Biden dropped out of the race - he was a surefire loser, so Dems were divided, now there’s euphoria for Kamala, so they’re united and happy
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Biden was down because he couldn’t campaign
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This will be a close race
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But Kamala hasn’t done any real interview or press conferences, no tough questions, has only read from a teleprompter, done scripted appearances and has reversed policy
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Switched on single payer, court packing, fracking, border, crime, gun buybacks, fund raising for rioters from 2020 (now distancing herself)
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So she’s getting a free pass because MSM is basically part of DNC
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But is it sustainable for 100 days leading up to the election?
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J D Vance
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Dems called Mitt Romney a fascist
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Hopefully Trump and Harris can do 2-3 debates
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Nate Silver analysis - these are the most competitive states
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5 camps of voters before Biden dropped out
- Anything but Biden
- Anything but Trump
- Pro Biden
- Pro Trump
- Middle
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Now the first camp is up for grabs - a lot of them could be switching into the Harris bucket
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What’s the difference between Biden and Harris?
- She also doesn’t make any unscripted appearances
- So its just a construct in charge - same handlers are handling her now instead of Biden
- Trump walks into a hostile interview at NABJ, but Harris didn’t come
- Biden staff is still running for President
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Harris’s campaign has come out separate from Biden’s position
- When Netanyahu came here, she issued a pro-Israel statement
- But she also boycotted Netanyahu when he came
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Dem establishment is pro-Israel, but progressive base and youth vote is pro-Palestine
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Dems are trying to have it both ways so they’re trying to thread the needle
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Harris wants to separate herself from her Biden-Harris administration
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We are in a recessionary stance - that will have to get put on the feet of sitting President and VP
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So its smart for her to stay quiet
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She will get all the pent-up goodwill for an no-Trump candidate
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- Trump NABJ interview
- Rachel Scott tried to ambush him and he pushed back very effectively
- Harris chickened out on her part
- You want a President who is willing to engage and has a capacity to deal with adversity and conflict
- Trump’s power - for good or bad - is that he authentic
- Audience reaction shows you how well he was doing
- When Mitt Romney spoke at this forum many years ago, he was booed
- Rise of authenticity is a general trend now anyway - CEOs, founders, celebrities - so it will hold him in good stead
- Harris will be a prompter President - a lot like Biden - this is similar to criticism to hired CEOs, in contrast with founder CEOs
- This election is a good test of what kind of President people want - a Chief Executive or someone who represents their staff
- In any large organization if you don’t have a strong Chief Executive, the org gets run from the bottom
- Market rate cuts to come maybe in the Fall
- Market is expecting a 50bps rate cut at some probability or a 25bps rate cut at higher probability
- We might be in a recession
- WFJ series on folks affected by inflation is quite poignant
- This could hurt the Democrats in the election
- The problem is the deficit
- Federal government spending is > 2 x - all combined state spending
- 30% of US employment is direct govt employment or indirect
- The govt is an integral part of maintaining flow of money through the economy
- Hard industries like food, agriculture, industrial production - situation is very hard
- 100% of job creation in the last few months is govt
- Company earnings
- AMD up
- Nvidia
- Now crash
- Meta rally - given up all their gains
- Best AI enabled companies in the future will have 70-80% margins
- They will be in much smaller markets, there will be many such companies
- Ismail Haniyeh Assassination
- Killed by a bomb smuggled into the guest house he was staying at
- Was hidden there 2 months ago
- Set off once he stayed in the guest house
- Crazy intelligence capacity demonstration
- Deeply humiliating to Iran that it happened on their soil
- Israeli airforce is second only to the US
- 90000 active and reserve personnal
- 400 nuclear weapons in Israel
- Mossad is unrivalled anywhere in the world basically
- Israel’s military and intelligence strength is their biggest asset and their biggest liability also
- They also did Stuxnet a long time ago
- This seems like a reaction to Israel’s earlier failed strategy of attacking Gaza in response to Oct 7
- Seems we’re on a path to a regional war in the Middle East
- US is now in 3 wars/conflicts
- Bill Ackman withdraws Pershing Square IPO
- Attempted $25B raise, dropped to $2B, order books came < $1B, so he withdrew plans
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