August 9 2024
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Jason back from covid
- CDC admits you can treat Covid like the flu now
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Japan yen carry trade
- Ideally could be safer to invest in US TBills at 5% with yen borrowings
- Algorithmic trading could have led to cascading effects
- Japanese economy
- Demographic time bomb
- Average age is 48 now, from 21 in 1950
- 30% of their budget is social security
- But to fund this you need to keep interest rates low
- So that leads to inflation
- So now you raise interest rates - causing things to crash
- There’s 4 kinds of economies/countries
- Developed
- Undeveloped
- Japan
- Argentina
- This is good for US treasury - coz this yen goes into US T Bills - US debt is growing by $1T every 100 days
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Recession fears in the US?
- Airbnb stock dropping could be a leading indicator?
- Need some government efficiency
- Private sector is already in recession basically - economy is being propped up by government spending
- Open border policy causes lower wages and competitive job market - this is their way to get around high interest rates and government spending
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Buffett selling Apple
- Sitting on a big cash pile (cash, cash equivalents and treasuries)
- It was reported recently that they have been selling Apple
- China angle?
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Google antitrust
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Most important thing that’s happened in tech since Microsoft antitrust ~2000
- They missed out on social and mobile because of this
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Vast majority of Google employees are liberal democrats
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Journos have become more liberal
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Harris picks Walz
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AIS Parties
- Top gun beach volleyball
- Back to the Future
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