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All In Podcast Episode 191 Recap and Notes August 9 2024

August 9 2024



  • Jason back from covid

    • CDC admits you can treat Covid like the flu now

  • Japan yen carry trade

    • Ideally could be safer to invest in US TBills at 5% with yen borrowings
    • Algorithmic trading could have led to cascading effects
    • Japanese economy
      • Demographic time bomb
      • Average age is 48 now, from 21 in 1950
      • 30% of their budget is social security
      • But to fund this you need to keep interest rates low
      • So that leads to inflation
      • So now you raise interest rates - causing things to crash
      • There’s 4 kinds of economies/countries
        • Developed
        • Undeveloped
        • Japan
        • Argentina
    • This is good for US treasury - coz this yen goes into US T Bills - US debt is growing by $1T every 100 days

  • Recession fears in the US?

    • Airbnb stock dropping could be a leading indicator?
    • Need some government efficiency
    • Private sector is already in recession basically - economy is being propped up by government spending
    • Open border policy causes lower wages and competitive job market - this is their way to get around high interest rates and government spending

  • Buffett selling Apple

    • Sitting on a big cash pile (cash, cash equivalents and treasuries)
    • It was reported recently that they have been selling Apple
    • China angle?

  • Google antitrust

    • Most important thing that’s happened in tech since Microsoft antitrust ~2000

      • They missed out on social and mobile because of this

    • Vast majority of Google employees are liberal democrats

    • Journos have become more liberal

  • Harris picks Walz

  • AIS Parties

    • Top gun beach volleyball
    • Back to the Future

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