July 11 2024
- Sacks modeling Hawk Tuah
- Jason is now appearing on Fox
- Sacks appearing at RNC - was leaked to NYT
- Economy
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Inflation ~3%
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Chances of rate cut might be higher
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Big stocks in market going up
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SP500 PE ratio has gone up a lot
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Fed is changing the goal posts to normalize 3% inflation
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So we will see permanently high interest rates
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Partisan gap on perception
See the times both sides agree things are going down - during recession or election?
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Spread between SP500 equal weight vs regular version is highest since March 2000 right before the dotcom crash
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- AI build out might be over done?
- Chamath called this out in May
- So did Friedberg
- Lots of reports coming out that benefits are not being seen from AI investments yet
- However models are getting better and better
- Lots of hardware spending and investment (big tech and startups) because folks want to diversify from NVidia - so payoff will take time
- We probably just need to be patient
- A16Z building 20K GPU cluster!!!
- They want to help win deals with AI startups
- Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross did this last year
- French elections and commentary
- France
- Adding taxes
- Reducing retirement age
- Price caps on commodities
- India elections also BJP didn’t win as big mandate as they expected
- Mexico election winner with leftist government - thinks institutions should manage progress, not individuals in free markets
- There is an emerging tactical alliance between left and center on the global stage - against right
- There is a big battle between socialism and free market economy
- Globalism is making this happen
- The world is reacting against income inequality and so wants socialism
- Argentina is on the other side of this problem
- Sacks commentary
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First round of voting: Marine Le Pen - nationalist party - they won every district in the country except Paris
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Their biggest issue is unlimited immigration
- Not good for economy, crime, social cohesiveness, national identity
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Second round
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How did this happen - Macron conspired with Far left to block Marine Le Pen from winning - by having 200 French election candidates withdraw - to have a bunch of voters move far left
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So they threw the election through legal manipulation to reject the rights of the French people
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The people voted for national sovereignty - but instead got communism
- Increase tax rate to 90% over $400K income, etc - craziness
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And now the Far left are saying they will not work with Macron
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Similar situation in the US - if Biden had shut down the border he would have been in a different situation
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Center left should not cater to far left and radicals - just stay centrist
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- Biden hot swap?
- George Clooney writes NYT op-ed asking Biden to step down
- He just held a fund raiser a few weeks ago
- Anonymous sources are saying Biden fund raising is down now
- Adam Schiff is also asking Biden to slow down
- Pelosi gave a non answer
- Something suspicious going on at White House with Biden’s condition
- Media is lying now - they have all known all this time - it was a dereliction of duty
- Turning point was debate where the whole country could see it
- Dean Phillips told the truth when he came on the pod - he didn’t have special access to the President - but it was obvious - he would try to talk to the party elite and be shut off
- Jason’s idea from a week ago for speed run primary is being floated by others also - there’s a Sema4 article
- How many hoaxes have been perpetrated by the Democrat party now?
- George Clooney writes NYT op-ed asking Biden to step down
- France
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