November 1 2024
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Jason partying stories from the previous week
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AllIn holiday party Dec 7 at Palace of Fine Arts
- Apparently it’ll be $1M party???
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Election Night YouTube Live stream at 7pm pacific
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US GDP growth seems healthy
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2.8% growth in Q3 (adjusted for inflation)
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Better than other western countries
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Lots of national debt though
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3M federal government employees
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Total almost 25M people working for the government (fed + state + local, etc)
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Both candidates are proposing lots of spending
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Government consumption of GDP
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Most of the gains under Biden administration are from the government
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But private sector is struggling
- DropBox layoffs latest example (announced layoffs)
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Questionable whether this will affect voting because its come so late in the news cycle
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Voters might be more affected by inflation and jobs
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Prime Rate is 8%
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This rate determines bond rates
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Bank unrealized losses are crazy
- This is worse than in 2008
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Buffett warned BofA publicly (kinda obliquely) - and has been selling/dumping - and is either completely out or almost
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Fed controls short term rates
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Market controls long term rates
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People with ARM loans will hurt a lot 😟
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Roughly $10T of government debt will be re-issued soon - at higher rate
- This is the compounding problem you can’t get away from - this hits every empire in history
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BRICs challenge will also hurt US dollar
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Next President will face a wicked set of problems related to govt debt and interest rates
- Have to cut spending - which will cause recession and inflation and unemployment
- There is no win-win scenario here
- Alternatively real economy will perform better with less govt holding private sector back
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All the Federal govt will end up doing is Defense and Entitlements - nothing else will pass
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Tragedy of the commons
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Google earnings awesome
- Cloud and YouTube killing it
- $80+B revenue
- YouTube revenue ~$50B over the past 12 months
- GCP $11B in Q3
- Shareholder might want the company broken up because each part might be higher valuation
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Broadcast licenses monopolized by ABC, CBS, NBC
- Obsolete model
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Lack of trust in media
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Americans are losing trust in institutions
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Internet democratized information
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So media focuses on emotions, etc
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Sacks and JCal predicted last year May/August that podcasts could decide the 2024 election
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Trump going on Rogan, AllIn, Andrew Schulz, etc is designed to help him
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Rogan allows you to be who you are over the course of the 3 hours
- This was Chamath’s experience
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Trump on Rogan not showing up initial search
- Was it flagged?
- Is the general trend of negative results for Trump and positive results for Harris a reflection of the search engine’s editorialization OR a reflection of the content corpus
- Have someone from Google on the show and explain it 🙂
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Election Update
- Important to get a decisive victory to avoid questions about election integrity
- Its not a direct democracy
- Voters don’t vote for the President - each state is making a vote
- Heritage Foundation found 1600 voter fraud cases in 40 years - 40 per year basically
- CA passed a law that you’re not allowed to ask for voter ID apparently?
- How come every employer has to ensure employee has I-9 etc but for voter ID we don’t need it?
- If you change verification standards, prior fraud rate is not predictive of future fraud
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