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All In Podcast Episode 202 Recap and Notes November 1 2024

November 1 2024

  • Jason partying stories from the previous week

  • AllIn holiday party Dec 7 at Palace of Fine Arts

    • Apparently it’ll be $1M party???

  • Election Night YouTube Live stream at 7pm pacific

  • US GDP growth seems healthy

    • 2.8% growth in Q3 (adjusted for inflation)

    • Better than other western countries

    • Lots of national debt though

    • 3M federal government employees

    • Total almost 25M people working for the government (fed + state + local, etc)

    • Both candidates are proposing lots of spending

    • Government consumption of GDP

    • Most of the gains under Biden administration are from the government

    • But private sector is struggling

      • DropBox layoffs latest example (announced layoffs)

    • Questionable whether this will affect voting because its come so late in the news cycle

    • Voters might be more affected by inflation and jobs

    • Prime Rate is 8%

      • This rate determines bond rates

      • Bank unrealized losses are crazy

        • This is worse than in 2008

      • Buffett warned BofA publicly (kinda obliquely) - and has been selling/dumping - and is either completely out or almost

      • Fed controls short term rates

      • Market controls long term rates

      • People with ARM loans will hurt a lot 😟

    • Roughly $10T of government debt will be re-issued soon - at higher rate

      • This is the compounding problem you can’t get away from - this hits every empire in history

    • BRICs challenge will also hurt US dollar

    • Next President will face a wicked set of problems related to govt debt and interest rates

      • Have to cut spending - which will cause recession and inflation and unemployment
      • There is no win-win scenario here
      • Alternatively real economy will perform better with less govt holding private sector back

    • All the Federal govt will end up doing is Defense and Entitlements - nothing else will pass

    • Tragedy of the commons

  • Google earnings awesome

    • Cloud and YouTube killing it
    • $80+B revenue
    • YouTube revenue ~$50B over the past 12 months
    • GCP $11B in Q3
    • Shareholder might want the company broken up because each part might be higher valuation

  • Broadcast licenses monopolized by ABC, CBS, NBC

    • Obsolete model

  • Lack of trust in media

    • Americans are losing trust in institutions


    • Internet democratized information

    • So media focuses on emotions, etc

    • Sacks and JCal predicted last year May/August that podcasts could decide the 2024 election

    • Trump going on Rogan, AllIn, Andrew Schulz, etc is designed to help him

    • Rogan allows you to be who you are over the course of the 3 hours

      • This was Chamath’s experience

  • Trump on Rogan not showing up initial search

    • Was it flagged?
    • Is the general trend of negative results for Trump and positive results for Harris a reflection of the search engine’s editorialization OR a reflection of the content corpus
    • Have someone from Google on the show and explain it 🙂

  • Election Update

    • Important to get a decisive victory to avoid questions about election integrity
    • Its not a direct democracy
      • Voters don’t vote for the President - each state is making a vote
    • Heritage Foundation found 1600 voter fraud cases in 40 years - 40 per year basically
    • CA passed a law that you’re not allowed to ask for voter ID apparently?
    • How come every employer has to ensure employee has I-9 etc but for voter ID we don’t need it?
    • If you change verification standards, prior fraud rate is not predictive of future fraud

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