September 27 2024
OpenAI memoriam parody
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Chamath on Joe Rogan
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OpenAI $150B valuation
- Converting to B corp - benefit corp - kinda like C corp - so fiduciary for not just shareholders but some external factors that’s more than just profits
- Patagonia is similar - for profit with a mission
- Non profit is a minority shareholder - much smaller now
- Profit cap will be removed
- Probably raising $6.5B
- Altman might get 7% stake
- Bull case
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Can probably invest the capital well - they have lead in model performance, etc
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Could become a true global player
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Maybe computing extensions stuff
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Revenue growth seems strong
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Some rumors have it higher than 3.4B so closer to 5B maybe?
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So valuation might be warranted
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- Bear case
- Underlying technology could be replaced by open source (is Llama really good?)
- Meta could incorporate AI assistants into their app eco system - Google could do the same thing - so you don’t have to go to ChatGPT maybe
- Competing with large companies will be harder (Google, Microsoft, Meta, etc) for synthetic data, etc
- High level churn is concerning (maybe unprecedented in a company that is apparently so successful)
- Non profit vs For profit
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How can this be allowed - why wouldn’t everyone just do this?
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Contrast Elon losing $56B the way he did vs Sam making $10B the way he did
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Weird structure
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AI vs SaaS
- JCal example of using o1-preview for analyzing a cap table is quite impressive
- Enterprises could replace a lot of knowledge workers with this technology
- o1 does in a few minutes what the analyst would have taken days to do
- Google Notebook LM also looks impressive - you can ask good questions about the documents
- System of records will be disrupted - NetSuite, Workday, Oracle, Salesforce, Hubspot, etc
- Now AI agents will do this work
- Benioff called Sacks after previous pod and made a compelling case for System of Record companies
- AI models aren’t 100% reliable
- Companies can’t do that themselves
- Mechanical orchard will disrupt lot of companies maybe
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Meta’s AR glasses look cool
- Apple Intelligence also making progress (for Siri)
- Something will happen - we will get a new type of device or form factor
- Ambient computing
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Blue collar boom
- Tech jobs drying up so trade jobs rising
- “Generation toolbelt”
- Old model of getting into mountains of debt getting a useless degree isn’t sustainable
- We will pay a premium for handmade stuff and human touch
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Risk of nuclear war increasing
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Israel, Lebanon, Iran
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Russia Ukraine also getting more testy
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Nuclear weapons tested in history
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Zelenskyy just visited the US to ask to be admitted to NATO
- Seems to be the only change Ukraine has
- Apparently he’s asking for long range missiles from US and UK
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We are waltzing into WW3
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You do no get a second chance in the nuclear age - Jeffrey Sachs
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We are fighting a potential nuclear threat on 3 fronts - Russia, Iran, China
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