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All In Podcast Episode 197 Recap and Notes September 27 2024

September 27 2024

  • OpenAI memoriam parody

  • Chamath on Joe Rogan

  • OpenAI $150B valuation

    • Converting to B corp - benefit corp - kinda like C corp - so fiduciary for not just shareholders but some external factors that’s more than just profits
    • Patagonia is similar - for profit with a mission
    • Non profit is a minority shareholder - much smaller now
    • Profit cap will be removed
    • Probably raising $6.5B
    • Altman might get 7% stake
    • Bull case

      • Can probably invest the capital well - they have lead in model performance, etc

      • Could become a true global player

      • Maybe computing extensions stuff

      • Revenue growth seems strong

      • Some rumors have it higher than 3.4B so closer to 5B maybe?

      • So valuation might be warranted

    • Bear case
      • Underlying technology could be replaced by open source (is Llama really good?)
      • Meta could incorporate AI assistants into their app eco system - Google could do the same thing - so you don’t have to go to ChatGPT maybe
      • Competing with large companies will be harder (Google, Microsoft, Meta, etc) for synthetic data, etc
      • High level churn is concerning (maybe unprecedented in a company that is apparently so successful)
    • Non profit vs For profit

      • How can this be allowed - why wouldn’t everyone just do this?

      • Contrast Elon losing $56B the way he did vs Sam making $10B the way he did

      • Weird structure

  • AI vs SaaS

    • JCal example of using o1-preview for analyzing a cap table is quite impressive
    • Enterprises could replace a lot of knowledge workers with this technology
    • o1 does in a few minutes what the analyst would have taken days to do
    • Google Notebook LM also looks impressive - you can ask good questions about the documents
    • System of records will be disrupted - NetSuite, Workday, Oracle, Salesforce, Hubspot, etc
      • Now AI agents will do this work
    • Benioff called Sacks after previous pod and made a compelling case for System of Record companies
      • AI models aren’t 100% reliable
      • Companies can’t do that themselves
    • Mechanical orchard will disrupt lot of companies maybe

  • Meta’s AR glasses look cool

    • Apple Intelligence also making progress (for Siri)
    • Something will happen - we will get a new type of device or form factor
    • Ambient computing

  • Blue collar boom

    • Tech jobs drying up so trade jobs rising
    • “Generation toolbelt”
    • Old model of getting into mountains of debt getting a useless degree isn’t sustainable
    • We will pay a premium for handmade stuff and human touch

  • Risk of nuclear war increasing

    • Israel, Lebanon, Iran

    • Russia Ukraine also getting more testy

    • Nuclear weapons tested in history

    • Zelenskyy just visited the US to ask to be admitted to NATO

      • Seems to be the only change Ukraine has
      • Apparently he’s asking for long range missiles from US and UK

    • We are waltzing into WW3

    • You do no get a second chance in the nuclear age - Jeffrey Sachs

    • We are fighting a potential nuclear threat on 3 fronts - Russia, Iran, China

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