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All In Podcast Episode 293 Recap and Notes October 16 2026

October 16 2026

  • Ben Horowitz joins the show
    • #1 VC by AUM apparently
  • AllIn was #1 podcast last week
  • AI Bubble Pop?
    • Coreweave bond sell off
    • Stock tank
    • Chamath, Elon join the chorus
    • Interest rates on treasuries going up seems to be impacting them - rate they have to pay seems higher
    • They have high revenue concentration - 75% of revenue comes from 3 customers
    • Is this volatility or a bubble?
      • Sacks says former
    • OpenAI and Anthropic threaten every single company in the world
  • AI has a deflationary impact
    • Decompilation?
    • We are short on power generation - this might hit everything
      • Need to own land and power
      • Startups will be hurt because of this
    • Might want to pay attention to payback period
    • Maybe does Coreweave cancel their contracts, pay the penalty and move to spot pricing?
    • NEED TO GET LONG ENERGY
  • Anthropic investor day numbers got a mixed reaction
    • Might go public this year
    • Q3 revenue ~$16.8B
    • FCF+
    • Clearly great company
    • Is it better to raise more money at lower valuation or take lower money at higher valuation?
      • Line of thinking: if the only thing stopping the risk is financing risk then why take it
    • Optimize for “surity” of compute vs Optimize for valuation
      • Is it a question?
  • Besties live during Election Night Nov 3
  • Anthropic claims small models could start self replicating
    • Psyop Corner 🙂 ?
    • “Terminator is coming” → “Your toaster is going to kill you” 🙂
    • Anthropic also published a post saying they have new methods that reduce distillation effectiveness by ~99%?
    • Seems like their latest ploy to scare folks after their previous push against open weight models
    • So this is similar to how Bill Gates manifested the (man made) covid pandemic by talking about it all the time
    • Bill Gates is fear mongering about AI
    • Ali Ghodsi framework for model to get out of control
      • Next model has to need less compute
      • Next model has to take less time to train
      • Next model has to have better accuracy
      • Then it has to happen again/again
      • We are 0/4 right now
    • The most dangerous thing happening in AI right now is Anthropic and Bill Gates
  • Bill Gates
    • Polio eradication gave him access to all world leaders
    • Giving Pledge gave him karma without doing the donation

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