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Allin Summit 2022 - May 16 2022 - Nate Silver - What makes Gamblers tick?

May 16 2022

Nate Silver - What makes gamblers tick?

  • He is working on a book with this theme
  • The best gamblers:
    • Need to understand probability
    • Complex mathematics combined with intuition
    • Are highly competitive, not average
    • Care about small edges, win 54-57% of sports bets
    • Are contrarians - there’s a fine line between being ahead of the curve and being permanently contrarian
    • Take shots
    • Work well with incomplete information
    • Focus on the process, not results
    • Are opportunistic
      • Good players fold 70% of the time
    • Thinking, focusing and concentrating hard on taxing on the brain and body - Magnus Carlsen loses 5 lbs in a chess game
    • Apply Practiced Intuition - read “Thinking Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman
    • Are structured thinkers
    • Don’t care that much about money - move between states: {super rich, rich, broke}

Q and A

  • In politics, people just look for their priors
  • Need good BS detectors
  • Get boundary policed a lot
  • Challenger party is more motivated to turn out
  • You always want to play counter-attack in politics

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