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All In Podcast Episode 146 Recap and Notes September 22 2023

Sep 22 2023



  • Jason in cold plunge

    • Cold, warm, cold

  • GOP primary

    • Vivek hitting the right notes
    • He might be clear #2 4-8 weeks from now
    • Affluent voters seem to like Vivek
    • Friedberg seems impressed
    • Chamath also seems impressed
    • Democrats seem to not be giving RFK Jr a fair chance
    • Sacks has acceptable-unacceptable framework - he thinks folks pushing the war are unacceptable
    • If something can’t go on forever, it won’t
      • restraint will be imposed on us eventually

  • AIS 2023 recap

    • People are saying its the best content from a conference ever

  • IPO and M&A

    • Cisco acquires Splunk for $28B - all cash

    • Instacart, Klaviyo and ARM all IPOed in the last week

    • These IPOs weren’t great - because of the way the banks structure them

    • All are kinda down

    • We have been in a software recession for a year now

      • or B2B recession

    • B2C part of economy has been strong

      • But this could come down because credit card debt and interest on it is at all time high
      • Real estate transactions have cratered




  • VC model

    • WhatsApp was a monster - capital efficient, they didn’t burn much or raise much

    • Nice visualization Instacart vs SP500



    • LPs can maybe generate better returns in the market, especially coz its liquid

    • Klaviyo Business maybe?



      • Shopify owns ~11% of the company?
      • Shopify owns ~13-14% of Flexport also?
      • Shopify apparently owns some Stripe also?
      • But Klaviyo should be careful of having ~70% of their revenue on Shopify

    • Airtable

      • Not sure which vertical helps them the most
      • They are probably worth less than the money they have raised
      • Every popular excel can be a SaaS app


      • Craigslist is so many businesses



      • Other companies like this - situation is rough - founders and senior management get wiped out, investors are hurt, new rounds are heavily discounted

  • Fed says rates will stay higher for longer

    • Victory lap for Chamath
    • Really good for the magnificent 7 - the top tech companies
    • Now be default alive into 2026
    • There will be less money going into startups - less money has to do more
    • There will be some portfolio consolidation
    • People will skip an iPhone cycle, keep their car, not buy a bigger house
    • Labor deal is an existential risk to auto business in America
      • They want more money for 4 day work week and the cars will not be sold because people cant afford a new car with higher rates
      • China auto workers work 54-60 hours a week, US workers want to work 32 hours a week - so you can’t compete
      • You can get higher bump in pay in short term but will destroy the pension in the long term - people are not thinking about it
      • Media keeps making it a moral issue about CEO pay vs worker pay
    • Automation will win because of this

  • Inverse vaccine?

    • Auto immune conditions
    • Able to eliminate auto immune disease in animals in trial
    • Can maybe cure MS, type 1 diabetes, etc
    • New paper published in Nature

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