October 27 2023
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Besties putting their cabinet together
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Sacks Twitter Space
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Vivek
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Elon
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Col. Daniel Davis
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Alexander Mercouris
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Vivek had the idea to do it
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Elon is also hearing this kind of concern from leaders he speaks with
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Ukraine war needs to end - counter-offensive started in June has not worked - need to stop the war
- Continuing war just withers the flower of Ukrainian youth 😟
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US should not be in a proxy war with Russia
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This should not continue with what’s happening in the middle east
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Middle East crisis, 3 possible scenarios
- Israel wants to go in but being asked to wait by Americans so they can get ready
- 1 - Successful Israel, Hezbollah and Iran can’t get in
- 2 - Attack doesn’t really work, muddle way to ceasefire after public outcry
- 3 - Backfires - west bank as 3rd front and hezbollah in the north activate, so fighting wars on multiple fronts
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Republican neocons like Lindsey Graham wants war with Iran
- They wanted to invade Iran back in 2003 when Bush administration chose Iraq first with the understanding Iran will come later
- WSJ is a leading neocon publication
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How to interpret Iran’s role intertwined with history of petrodollars
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Friedberg is worried about the world marching towards nuclear war
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Conventional weapons - we are running out of them
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So might not be able to retreat or recede from these wars
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Humans who are convinced of the righteousness of their cause will just waive away or justify any tactical concerns
- MacArthur who was not a “crazy” wanted to use nukes but got fired by Truman who paid a political price
- In Cuban missile crisis our generals wanted to use nukes also
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1 year before Biden admin said use of cluster bombs was a war crime but 1 year later when they ran out of other stuff, they justified their use of cluster bombs
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We are dangerously low on key types of ammunition
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Biden sees no limits on US power - all his experiences are shaped by times when US was global hegemon - no longer in that position and so he’s dangerous, he doesn’t realize we’re not so much stronger anymore
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Iran is stronger than Iraq
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World nuclear powers
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Macro picture
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GDP up 4.9%
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Fintech companies not doing well
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Starlink and Stripe are the only businesses that could open up IPO markets
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Crazy amount of startups shutting down
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100% NDR companies trade at 3-5x ARR
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Stripe is the benchmark company
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Google, Tesla, Facebook and even Microsoft are down
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People are pricing in higher rates for longer
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Cruise
- They apparently didn’t share all the video footage initially - this is reckless and disappointing 😟
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Hurricane Otis
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Became a category 5 hurricane in 6 hours from the storm it was
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Sad photos 😟 of devastation
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Hits at 1am
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There was no warning
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Ocean receives and retains majority of energy coming to the earth from the sun
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No models predicted this 😟
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Extreme condition wasn’t accounted for in the models
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During events like this reinsurance markets harden and rates go up
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Home insurance too high in Florida - apparent example: $121000 a year for a home in a recent WSJ article
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Most of the country has to underwrite coastal communities’ housing
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Malibu homes at risk of corroding and falling into the sea
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Jason in the middle east
- Thinks it will be #2 region in Venture Capital in the next 10 years
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New House Speaker
- Mike Johnson - in Congress since 2016 - 4th term
- Has apparently never met Mitch McConnell - several members had to google him
- From Louisiana
- Anti-abortion, Anti-gay marriage
- Wants to cut medicare and social security
- Voted against more funding for Ukraine
- Bought into Dominion scam apparently
- Why he won - they perceive him as a nice guy who is sufficiently conservative enough
- Jim Jordan has rubbed folks the wrong way so he lost
- Not anti-CRT
- Campaign ads will write themselves
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Trump cases
- Going after lower level folks to flip on higher level folks to get Trump eventually
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