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All In Podcast Episode 163 Recap and Notes January 26 2024

January 26 2024



  • Besties body shame Phil Helmuth and mock his fashion sense

  • Markets going up

    • SP 500 up
    • Gas prices down
    • Consumer sentiment positive
    • Counter
      • BTFP ending in March
      • China negative economic signals
    • National debt and debt service are out of control

  • Media job cuts

    • Business Insider, LA Times did lots of layoffs, Conde Nast
    • Sports Illustrated, Pitchfork, etc are in trouble
    • Bill Ackman (virtually) sticking the knife in
    • People prefer experts going direct instead of random media
    • Google trends shows Twitter is doing quite well for the mainstream
    • If you don’t have a strong personality at the center of your publication, you have to lie or make up stuff or toe the party line, so there’s a glut of outlets doing the same thing
    • Gellman amnesia effect starting to wear off - people are realizing that they are not telling the truth

  • Immigration and Border Crisis



    • Texas vs Federal government

    • Border security is removing barbed wire

    • Mayor Eric Adams of NY is also saying migrants will destroy the city

    • 63% americans according to a poll want Biden administration to be tougher

    • Why would government do this?

      • They can get low cost labor in the US
        • Shouldn’t they be organized about it then?
      • Just a lie to those of us who came the right way

    • Tucker theory about how Democrats want to add 22 million voters to their rolls in perpetuity

      • Yale study shows there might be 22 million illegals
      • Most new immigrants vote liberal at least in the first cycle

    • Maybe rich liberal elites want to help people who are more unfortunate

    • CA offering 700K illegal immigrants free healthcare

    • Typical oppressor oppressed dynamic being favored by woke elites

    • No thought about how we will afford housing, social services, food

    • Big majority thinks its a problem



    • 2 democratic parties

      • Working class democrats who are against Biden’s immigration policy
        • These people are moving Republican
      • Rich democrats who are in favor
        • These people run the democrat party
        • So they got debt forgiveness

  • Confidential financial data leaks

    • Brex and Anthropic data leaked
    • This is bad journalism - hurts the employees, hurts the company, hurts the investors, makes a bad impression on the public - not sure how this helps the public
    • Usually this is an insider who leaked it, using the press
    • Journalists have pgp, private phone numbers, etc to get inbound
    • The point is to hurt the companies - the journos have a different incentive than company builders
    • Fintech businesses are hard
      • They are mostly just fin businesses - their margins are going down
    • Sp500 average margin is usually ~43%
    • Increasingly its hard to say technology is a separate sector - everything is now tech enabled
    • It used to be that tech companies used to sell technology to other companies
    • Incredible scale and volume is needed to make these businesses exciting
      • Because their cut is so small

  • ARkStorm 2.0

    • Could get very wet for quite some time

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