January 26 2024
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Besties body shame Phil Helmuth and mock his fashion sense
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Markets going up
- SP 500 up
- Gas prices down
- Consumer sentiment positive
- Counter
- BTFP ending in March
- China negative economic signals
- National debt and debt service are out of control
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Media job cuts
- Business Insider, LA Times did lots of layoffs, Conde Nast
- Sports Illustrated, Pitchfork, etc are in trouble
- Bill Ackman (virtually) sticking the knife in
- People prefer experts going direct instead of random media
- Google trends shows Twitter is doing quite well for the mainstream
- If you don’t have a strong personality at the center of your publication, you have to lie or make up stuff or toe the party line, so there’s a glut of outlets doing the same thing
- Gellman amnesia effect starting to wear off - people are realizing that they are not telling the truth
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Immigration and Border Crisis
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Texas vs Federal government
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Border security is removing barbed wire
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Mayor Eric Adams of NY is also saying migrants will destroy the city
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63% americans according to a poll want Biden administration to be tougher
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Why would government do this?
- They can get low cost labor in the US
- Shouldn’t they be organized about it then?
- Just a lie to those of us who came the right way
- They can get low cost labor in the US
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Tucker theory about how Democrats want to add 22 million voters to their rolls in perpetuity
- Yale study shows there might be 22 million illegals
- Most new immigrants vote liberal at least in the first cycle
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Maybe rich liberal elites want to help people who are more unfortunate
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CA offering 700K illegal immigrants free healthcare
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Typical oppressor oppressed dynamic being favored by woke elites
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No thought about how we will afford housing, social services, food
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Big majority thinks its a problem
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2 democratic parties
- Working class democrats who are against Biden’s immigration policy
- These people are moving Republican
- Rich democrats who are in favor
- These people run the democrat party
- So they got debt forgiveness
- Working class democrats who are against Biden’s immigration policy
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Confidential financial data leaks
- Brex and Anthropic data leaked
- This is bad journalism - hurts the employees, hurts the company, hurts the investors, makes a bad impression on the public - not sure how this helps the public
- Usually this is an insider who leaked it, using the press
- Journalists have pgp, private phone numbers, etc to get inbound
- The point is to hurt the companies - the journos have a different incentive than company builders
- Fintech businesses are hard
- They are mostly just fin businesses - their margins are going down
- Sp500 average margin is usually ~43%
- Increasingly its hard to say technology is a separate sector - everything is now tech enabled
- It used to be that tech companies used to sell technology to other companies
- Incredible scale and volume is needed to make these businesses exciting
- Because their cut is so small
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ARkStorm 2.0
- Could get very wet for quite some time
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