February 9 2024
- Friedberg is back
- Apple Vision Pro
- Better than MetaQuest Pro - no dizziness and disconnectedness apparently
- Lots of image collection, data collection, etc can be done while you’re working
- Enterprise applications - data is being ingested in real time
- Workforce can be trained by the goggles in a way video can never do
- Relate this to how young people are having bad outcomes because of technology and social media - might exacerbate it
- When Apple comes into the race, its the starting gun for the space
- Friedberg predicts they will get $100B in sales over the next 5 years
- You can do all your work without people seeing your screen, etc
- Jason thinks its an enterprise device
- Chamath, Friedberg, etc have strict rules for their kids’ electronics
- Can also go long SSRIs, etc with Apple
- Meta vs Snap
- Meta is rocking, Snap is rocked
- Snap has voting imbalance and maybe that’s what’s hurting them
- A different kind of investor will go to them because they have no say
- Zuck has 60% voting control, Spiegel has 99%
- Snap’s operating losses increased like a billion dollars
- They generated $35M free cash and paid $1.3B in SBC
- Meta cut headcount 22%, Snap cut 3%
- Meta makes $70B free cash and paid $14B in SBC
- Meta 3.2B DAU vs Snap’s 400M
- Meta responded well to the Apple ad change
- SaaS recession appears to be over
- market is an escalator on the way up and an elevator on the way down
- Software adoption is going up
- VCs approach to AI investing
- Founders Fund put money in OpenAI at ~$29B valuation, not much else
- A16Z spraying everywhere - character.ai, replit, etc
- Chamath conversation with Jonathan Ross was apparently interesting
- 3 kinds of AI apps
- Foundation Models - Open source, closed source
- AI tools/infrastructure - vector databases, etc
- Applications - copilots, AI apps, etc
- Most SaaS like
- OpenAI will likely win - like Google winning the whole market
- Custom GPTs will help them even more - flywheel
- OpenAI vs open models
- YouTube is the best dataset in the world - Google has that lead - it might be ingesting 1-2PB per day and have like 1000s of PB already
- It is multi modal
- All other models will converge on same performance because they are trained on the same dataset
- Facebook and Google realize their advantage and have made models free
- Notion also allows you to query your workspace
- Commercial Real Estate
- US wide its a $20T asset class
- $6T of that is debt
- Owned 50% by Banks and Thrifts
- Multi family housing situation could be worse
- China has excess housing for 150M people
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