| Biggest Winner Politics |
Fiscal conservatives |
Gen X (Elon, Rubio, etc) and Elder millenials (Vance, Vivek, Tulsi) |
Young candidates (avg Trump candidates’ age is 45 or so - Biden had like 60+ - so by end of 2025 younger political names will rise) |
Trump and centrism |
| Biggest Political Loser |
Progressivism (Pierre > Trudeau, LePen > Macron, Farage > Starmer, AfD wins, etc - repudiation of class based identity politics) - Said Koch family last year and claims he got it right |
Racist vocal minority on both sides |
Pro war neocons (said Ukraine last year) |
Putin (European will re-arm itself so US will redeploy to Japan and South Korea so Xi Jinping will decouple from Putin) |
| Biggest Business Winner |
Dollar denominated stable coins (https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/state-of-crypto-report-2024/) - Visa and Mastercard will be hit (last year said bootstrapped startups - did well) |
Elon’s AI play (Tesla/xAI) and Google (Gemini Deep Research) (last year said training data set providers like Reddit, NYT, etc - did well) |
Autonomous hardware/robotics (just ordered some UniTree for use on farms - < $3000 cost, Humanoid is G1 - ~$16K) - Year of the robot (last year said commodities business - didn’t work) |
Big businesses that use AI thoughtfully - they can pay for AI to solve problems at high cost that smaller businesses won’t be able to - inference compute will be derivative winner of that |
| Biggest Business Loser |
Absolute dollar drawdown of Mag 7 will be a lot - worried about concentration of top companies - about 40% - this has historically foreshadowed a drawdown https://x.com/chamath/status/1873144394100187263 - (Last year said Sports teams - Gavin is taking the opposite side of that) |
OpenAI (too many external headwinds), Other Candidates - Commercial real estate, Microstrategy, Truth Social |
Similar to Gavin - companies dependent too much on gov - so gov contractors - so as a corollary traditional consulting companies will also be hit (Wipro, Tata, Cognizant, etc) Age of cost plus is over - its terrible (Last year said Vertical SaaS (got it right) |
Government service providers (age of DOGE - might not want gov being ~35% of your market) |
| Biggest Business Deal |
Collapse of auto OEMs - thinks Honda/Nissan combination is foreshadowing what might happen in the rest of the industry - Tesla will beat everyone else - Gavin agrees saying they are losing their Chinese business - only counter is gov intervention (Last year said Starlink public - failed) |
Some self driving partnership (Amazon, Tesla, Waymo, Uber, Doordash, etc) Last year said ByteDance would go public or Tiktok divestment will happen (almost there) |
Massive funding deals for hardware manufacturing in the US, Also thinks Waymo will do a deal (Last year blockbuster AI rights deals - got it right with Reddit) |
Lots of tech M&A (pent up demand), something will happen with Intel, independent frontier AI labs will get acquired |
| Most contrarian belief |
Banking crisis in 1 of the mainline banks (Last year said OpenAI value will go down - got it wrong) |
Last year said Apple will enter AI - they did with Intelligence but its so bad |
Dramatic rise in socialist movements in 2025 in US - we will see a lot of overall growth but some parts of the economy will lose big - so large contingents of people will be left behind - Gavin agrees with saying that AI will disrupt a lot of income in 2025 (Last year said nuclear weapon use probability will go up (hard to say he got it right)) |
Frontier models won’t release their research as much - America will print at least 1 year of > 5% GDP growth in the next 4 years |
| Best Performing Asset |
Credit Default Swaps (some insurance) |
Mag 7 |
Chinese tech ETFs (Last year said Uranium ETF - got it wrong) |
High Bandwidth Memory companies (bigger part of NVidia GPU cogs - 2 companies today - Hynix and Micron) |
| Worst Performing Asset |
Software Industrial Complex (not sure their thesis is valid anymore) - talking his book with 8090 - Last year late stage tech stocks |
Legacy auto OEMs and real estate - Last year said LLM startups |
Vertical SaaS - pricing being compressed as companies explore internal tools - Last year - short vertical SaaS, long cloud providers - good spread trade |
Enterprise application software (if you don’t have your own models or own your compute, all you have is a little bit of a data moat) |
| Most anticipated trend |
End of the deep state - small arcane regulatory changes that allow us to kick the debt can down the road (Last year said BTC will hit $100K - nailed it) |
Exits and DPI will shower down, M&A etc will go up (Last year said AI entering industries - claims win with Athena) |
Announcement of nuclear power build out in 2025 - new gov will be more accommodating (Last year said predictive AI models - Demis won Nobel Prize nailed it) |
AI will make more progress per quarter in 2025 than per year in 2023/2024 - reasoning trace - might get ASI (artificial super intelligence) |
| Most anticipated media |
Declassified files from Trump administration (LY - Mr Beast - got it right) |
Chaos in editorial newsrooms in leftwing media (LY - 3BP, Gladiator 2) |
AI video games (LY - AI generated news) |
1923 season 2 |
| Super Prediction |
Mag 8 concentration drops to 30% in SP500 |
Trump will deport 750,000; National debt (grown $2T/year in each of last 8 years on avg) - betting $1T increase - so $38T in Dec 2025 |
MSFT, AWS, GCP who will win in revenue growth in 2025 |
UFOs and Drones information coming out (last time there was a rise in reports it was in 1945-1960s when we learnt nuclear power and now its coming again when we have AI breakthrough) |
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