January 31 2025
-
Friedberg episode with Ray Dalio
- New book on how countries go broke
-
Travis Kalanick joins the show
- Cloud Kitchens
- Uber
-
Cloud Kitchens intro
- Future of food
- Bowl builder
- Cooks prep, machine plates
- Tie in to health
- Friedberg did the same thing with ~Eatsa? ~10 years ago
- Used a canister model
- He got sick, company closed
- Had conversations with Chipotle, Sweetgreen, etc
- 800 sqft restaurant doing $3M a year
- NY had automats in the early 20th century
-
Sacks is here!!!!
- Has an office in the Eisenhower building
- Has a pass to the West Wing
- Can take people to lunch at the Navy mess
-
Deepseek
- New startup disrupting AI space
- Sacks new role lets him get access to all the big people in the space
- China vs US
- Open source vs Closed source
- 2 kinds of models
- LLM
- 4o
- Reasoning
- o1
- LLM
- Final training run cost vs full training cost is different
- Some credible reports that Deepseek has extensive training cluster which isn’t exactly cheap
- If you’re on the outside guessing, you have your own incentive for the narrative you’re embracing
- Regardless of speculation, it seems they have used novel techniques
- Balaji - It might turn out that the GPT wrapper has more of a moat than GPT
- Microsoft is also hosting R1 - what does that do to their relationship with OpenAI?
- Was there distillation?
- Security implications on calls to the models?
- Lot of pressure on Meta to show its better than R1
- Lot of pressure on Open AI with so many external pressures
- Embrace and extend
- Does this hit Nvidia?
- Apparently they bypassed Cuda?
- This could herald the time of amazing AI usage explosion
- Jevons paradox
- When you’re behind then OpenSource is a good strategy to catch up
-
US vs China in AI
- China has epic intensity of copying based on Travis’s experience with Uber in the past
- But after they are done copying, they move to innovation and creativity - and you can’t compete with that - they are light years ahead right now in terms of delivery, etc
- Same thing might happen in AI
- Is Singapore being used as a backdoor to funnel NVidia chips to China?
- Export controls could have bad second order effects
-
OpenAI fund raise
- ~$340B valuation?
- Taking money from Masa can be a double edge sword
- Getting the money is good - then your competitors don’t get it
- But diligence means they might invest in competitors also
- Smaller models could have a good future
-
DOGE first 10 days
-
Claiming to save $1B/day
-
Generous buyout kinda deal offered to government workers - might save another $100B
- Bill Clinton did the same kinda buyout during his Presidency - he did an amazing job
-
Terminating leases to buildings, etc
-
RTO
-
Doge eggplant?
-
All this was announced a while ago
-
Dalio book shows we need to cut about a $1T in spending to get the government spending under control
-
Interest rates might go down
-
The faster you cut spending, the less you have to cut
-
Real estate owners will be hit by Government cutting leases
-
Amazing how little real negative impact has happened - so cool
-
3 layer onion
- People
- Infrastructure
- IT and services and spend
-
2019 spend vs 2024 revenue would be $500B surplus!!!
-
Need 2 deflationary things
- DOGE
- AI benefits
-
Support from people
-
Border policies are also popular
-
-
Self driving - Waymo, Uber, Tesla
- Cheap AI will enable cheap autonomy
- For CA to go full electric vehicles - crazy amount of power generation will be needed
- Might need combustion engine AVs
- There is a huge real estate play, electrification play here - fleet management
- Robots need actuators need magnets need rare earths
- Car ownership could drop
- Parking lots could drop
- 10x fewer cars, 1/10th the land needed for parking
- 20% of the land in the city goes fallow
-
Interest Rates
- Might go up before they go down
- DOGE needs to work harder super faster
-
Fatal DC plane crash 😟
- Need some upgrades to these systems - very sad situation 😟
Comments