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All In Podcast Episode 215 Recap and Notes February 14 2025

Feb 14 2025

  • Naval thinks this is the best podcast
    • Secrets
      • 4 is the max who can have a good conversation
      • They are having fun
  • Naval intro
    • Iron fist on Angellist
    • Mage of early stage
    • Has a way with words - king of the nerds
    • Started VentureHacks → AngelList
    • Startups
      • Twitter
      • Uber
      • Notion
      • Postmates
      • Udemy
    • Now building
      • Airchat - kinda didn’t work
      • Trying hardware now
    • Wants to build things that are hard - inspired by Elon
    • Technical risk vs Market risk
    • SEC came after him for Angelist
      • Worked with DC to get the laws changed
    • Truth, love and money
    • How to get Rich was really viral
    • Likes compound interest in ideas
    • Twitter For You is like TikTok for nerds
  • Parenting
    • Big fan of David Deutsch
    • As you age you lose intelligence but acquire wisdom
    • Treating kids like adults
    • Rules - 1 hr of math a day 2 hrs of reading a day - everything else is allowed after that
    • Optimizing for the kids to have agency
    • Turn on captions watching YouTube - learn to read faster
  • Sacks joins the show
  • JD Vance AI speech in Europe
    • Amazing to have a VP who is smart
    • On point speech
    • Goals
      • American AI continues to be gold standard
      • Excessive regulation could kill AI just as its taking off - told the EU crazy regulators
      • AI must remain free from ideological bias
      • Pro worker growth path for AI - to boost job creation in the US
    • AI opportunity > AI safety
    • Huge moment
    • Last 2 events in this series were about AI safety
    • Biden EO was based around safety - EU regulation is about safety
    • Media and regulators only talk about safety
    • For US to win we need to win chips, models, applications - energy
    • Criticized DSA
    • Europe passes onerous regulations that basically hurts American companies who are doing all the work
    • Techno optimism
      • Not scared of AI vs scared of small set of folks who control AI for everyone’s own good
      • GDP per capita - US 82000, EU 60000, China 12000, India 2500 - so the lower ones want AI opportunity and techno optimism, bigger ones are techno pessimistics
    • Tale of 2 VPs

      • Harris early in Biden administration went to Mexico/Guatemala for illegal immigration

      • Even sympathetic folks weren’t too happy with her

        Screen Shot 2025-02-15 at 11.35.27 AM.png

      • A/B test

    • Technological supremacy is important
      • Example Anduril getting $22B government contract over Microsoft from the government
      • JD made this point well
      • Countries need economic and military supremacy
    • Immigration vs Productivity growth
    • Skilled assimilated immigration vs open borders
    • Its to the left’s advantage to collate legal and illegal immigration
    • Open borders lead to wage suppression
    • 3 cohorts
      • Asset lite middle class
      • Patriotic business owners
      • Leaders in innovation
      • MAGA gets all 3
    • What is evidence that AI is destroying jobs
      • Self driving will destroy driver jobs - but those didn’t exist 10 years ago
      • So lots of new jobs will be created
      • YouTube created so many jobs
    • There is a false level of certainty in EU style regulations that you can predict what will happen and put in regulation now - same with incumbents who are incentivized to be gatekeepers
    • AI will spawn insane new industries
    • In free societies - capital and labor follows to fill gaps
    • New things will be created faster than the old things will be lost
    • AI is enabling more opportunity
    • Someone using AI will take your job, AI won’t take your job
    • These are natural language computers
    • Need high EQ
    • Techno optimists vs Techno pessimists
      • but also Techno realists - this will happen anyway so we might as well do it else get disrupted
    • Deepseek has shown that US has no monopoly
    • Almost all technology is good if its open
    • US embraced open internet and so won with the best companies
  • Tariffs
    • Network effects explain Uber, Airbnb, Amazon etc all dominating
    • We act like this doesn’t exist in trade
    • Certain industries have hysteresis or economies of scale - if people raise tariffs on you and subsidize their network effect companies (eg Tiktok, BYD, etc) then they can beat you - you have to reciprocate
    • We have persistent inflation, broken Fed
    • Biden and Yellen going out issued insane short term paper - this will be hard time for Trump - we will have high rates probably 5%+ - simultaneously with inflation, etc
    • Biggest buyer of US ag exports is China
    • Tariffs vs lower taxation (which can increase capital flows) - can be very weird
    • China has biggest drone supply chain (through DJI) - both sides of Russia Ukraine war are using DJI drones basically
    • US should have massive energy surplus
    • Drone factories will create jobs
  • Thomson Reuters wins major AI copyrights case in the US
    • AllIn already covered this in Dec 2023 - E157
    • If you trained on the Open web, your model should be open source
    • Andrej Karpathy tutorials are good
    • NYT might make a lot of money from LLM licensing
  • Chamath’s dinner with Bryan Johnson
    • Its all about sleep
    • Wind down
    • No phone
    • Read a book
    • Apparently Khabib the fighter sleeps 3 hrs after training in the morning and 10 hrs at night - since he was a kid
  • Van Leeuwen ice cream
  • Confirmations
    • Tulsi confirmed
    • RFK Jr confirmed
    • Polymarket called it
    • Elon is inspiring

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