Feb 14 2025
- Naval thinks this is the best podcast
- Secrets
- 4 is the max who can have a good conversation
- They are having fun
- Secrets
- Naval intro
- Iron fist on Angellist
- Mage of early stage
- Has a way with words - king of the nerds
- Started VentureHacks → AngelList
- Startups
- Uber
- Notion
- Postmates
- Udemy
- Now building
- Airchat - kinda didn’t work
- Trying hardware now
- Wants to build things that are hard - inspired by Elon
- Technical risk vs Market risk
- SEC came after him for Angelist
- Worked with DC to get the laws changed
- Truth, love and money
- How to get Rich was really viral
- Likes compound interest in ideas
- Twitter For You is like TikTok for nerds
- Parenting
- Big fan of David Deutsch
- As you age you lose intelligence but acquire wisdom
- Treating kids like adults
- Rules - 1 hr of math a day 2 hrs of reading a day - everything else is allowed after that
- Optimizing for the kids to have agency
- Turn on captions watching YouTube - learn to read faster
- Sacks joins the show
- JD Vance AI speech in Europe
- Amazing to have a VP who is smart
- On point speech
- Goals
- American AI continues to be gold standard
- Excessive regulation could kill AI just as its taking off - told the EU crazy regulators
- AI must remain free from ideological bias
- Pro worker growth path for AI - to boost job creation in the US
- AI opportunity > AI safety
- Huge moment
- Last 2 events in this series were about AI safety
- Biden EO was based around safety - EU regulation is about safety
- Media and regulators only talk about safety
- For US to win we need to win chips, models, applications - energy
- Criticized DSA
- Europe passes onerous regulations that basically hurts American companies who are doing all the work
- Techno optimism
- Not scared of AI vs scared of small set of folks who control AI for everyone’s own good
- GDP per capita - US 82000, EU 60000, China 12000, India 2500 - so the lower ones want AI opportunity and techno optimism, bigger ones are techno pessimistics
- Tale of 2 VPs
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Harris early in Biden administration went to Mexico/Guatemala for illegal immigration
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Even sympathetic folks weren’t too happy with her
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A/B test
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- Technological supremacy is important
- Example Anduril getting $22B government contract over Microsoft from the government
- JD made this point well
- Countries need economic and military supremacy
- Immigration vs Productivity growth
- Skilled assimilated immigration vs open borders
- Its to the left’s advantage to collate legal and illegal immigration
- Open borders lead to wage suppression
- 3 cohorts
- Asset lite middle class
- Patriotic business owners
- Leaders in innovation
- MAGA gets all 3
- What is evidence that AI is destroying jobs
- Self driving will destroy driver jobs - but those didn’t exist 10 years ago
- So lots of new jobs will be created
- YouTube created so many jobs
- There is a false level of certainty in EU style regulations that you can predict what will happen and put in regulation now - same with incumbents who are incentivized to be gatekeepers
- AI will spawn insane new industries
- In free societies - capital and labor follows to fill gaps
- New things will be created faster than the old things will be lost
- AI is enabling more opportunity
- Someone using AI will take your job, AI won’t take your job
- These are natural language computers
- Need high EQ
- Techno optimists vs Techno pessimists
- but also Techno realists - this will happen anyway so we might as well do it else get disrupted
- Deepseek has shown that US has no monopoly
- Almost all technology is good if its open
- US embraced open internet and so won with the best companies
- Tariffs
- Network effects explain Uber, Airbnb, Amazon etc all dominating
- We act like this doesn’t exist in trade
- Certain industries have hysteresis or economies of scale - if people raise tariffs on you and subsidize their network effect companies (eg Tiktok, BYD, etc) then they can beat you - you have to reciprocate
- We have persistent inflation, broken Fed
- Biden and Yellen going out issued insane short term paper - this will be hard time for Trump - we will have high rates probably 5%+ - simultaneously with inflation, etc
- Biggest buyer of US ag exports is China
- Tariffs vs lower taxation (which can increase capital flows) - can be very weird
- China has biggest drone supply chain (through DJI) - both sides of Russia Ukraine war are using DJI drones basically
- US should have massive energy surplus
- Drone factories will create jobs
- Thomson Reuters wins major AI copyrights case in the US
- AllIn already covered this in Dec 2023 - E157
- If you trained on the Open web, your model should be open source
- Andrej Karpathy tutorials are good
- NYT might make a lot of money from LLM licensing
- Chamath’s dinner with Bryan Johnson
- Its all about sleep
- Wind down
- No phone
- Read a book
- Apparently Khabib the fighter sleeps 3 hrs after training in the morning and 10 hrs at night - since he was a kid
- Van Leeuwen ice cream
- Confirmations
- Tulsi confirmed
- RFK Jr confirmed
- Polymarket called it
- Elon is inspiring
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