February 28 2025
- Comedian guest drop out last minute due to sickness
- Jason turned off free replies coz of MAGA and crypto scammers
- Epstein files anti climax
- Can FBI really withhold information from higher ups?
- Friedberg on Celebrity Jeopardy
- 7-9M a night viewership for regular Jeopardy, Celebrity one is 2-3M
- Friedberg won handily
- Brett Adcock tweet
- CEO of Figure
- Autonomous robots timeline might be coming up
- Stepped away from deal with OpenAI recently
- Amazing video demo of 2 robots collaborating together to sort groceries
- Could be the year of robots
- Segway lawnmower Navimow
- Stripe report
- Stripe and Adyen both crushing it
- Stripe has strong network effects
- Stablecoin rise around the world is in full effect
- This could help them grow a lot
- Rise of AI is helping Stripe a lot
- Markets
- Stocks down
- BTC down
- Low unemployment
- Deportations not much seems like - 500-1000 people a day apparently
- CPI back around 3%
- DOGE + low immigration + tariffs mean growth will be slow
- Regression of Mag7 towards everyone else
- Seems bond market is being kind to Bessent and Trump
- Maybe interest rate could drop to under 4%
- What is the release valve in the US (in UK it was Brexit) when austerity is felt by people for 6-7 years
- Question is around tariffs vs tax cuts vs spending cuts
- US used to very tariff heavy to protect US industry - no taxes
- Can we go back to that model?
- Bond market might be an indication
- Senate and House budgets don’t seem to be helping solve the problem
- Budget seems to be main st friendly vs wall st
- Recent Harvard discussion showed if you make > $100K a year and/or you went to college - you’re a reliable democrat voter - everyone else is Trump voter
- Then its bad news for stock market and asset owners
- Either you don’t care because you don’t have these OR you’re too rich
- Many years of austerity - to cement political power - means dropping values of assets
- Trump Gold card
- Polymarket bets are on for how many will be sold
- Maybe some immigrant founders will take some chips off the table in secondary to get their visas
- Similar to EB-5 green card in some ways (used in Miami real estate apparently)
- Its basically $5M for a green card
- This is way better than a green card - coz no taxes on international assets
- Apparently there are 28000 $100M+ net worth folks in the world - how many of the 17000 internationals will take this deal?
- Sophisticated investor test
- Should everyone just invest in S&P - what about poor people not having access like rich people to startup investing?
- Sp500 has become Sp7 almost
- Can folks who are educated choose to invest in startups at their own risk?
- But the distinction already exists between private and public markets
- USPS dissolution
- Lutnick had an idea about USPS also doing census
- Jeff Bezos changes at WaPo
- Have to be pro free markets and personal liberties
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