Skip to main content

All In Podcast Episode 234 Recap and Notes July 4 2025

July 4 2025

  • AIS 2025
  • AllIn Tequila orders
  • Big Beautiful Bill
    • Vance had to cast tiebreak vote
    • AI regulation
      • Federal vs State?
  • Clean Energy Subsidies
    • Marginal cost of energy has to go to zero - any way you can produce energy - its a winning trade in the US over the next decade
    • CA has only 5 days of energy deficit per year (PGnE data)
      • Mostly ~50% utilized
  • Elon vs Trump wrt BBB
    • Seems both sides have a valid point of view about the deficit
    • Both too powerful to be able to get along too long
    • Ray Dalio has been calling this situation for a long time - our debt death spiral is probably already here
    • Goals vs Reality
      • 3% inflation → 2.4%
      • 3% GDP growth → 1.4%
      • 3% deficit to GDP → 6%
    • Question is if tax cuts and AI increase GDP growth - how will tariffs help - not sure how any of this works out
    • Balaji has already called that the US is bankrupt
    • This is the issue of our time
  • US dollar down > 10% in 2025

    • Dollar has devalued 50% or so in the last 35-40 years

    • So this is nothing new as an operating environment

    • See what Buffett says about it not being a winning trade to bet against the US

    • In the last 10 years - US treasuries held by foreign owners has dropped

    • Will the debt become more expensive in a smaller market?

    • Is this good that foreigners have less influence over US treasuries?

  • Harvard vs Trump
    • Harvard issuing $750M bond - they have budget issues - now with Trump conflict over DEI, etc
    • Not clear these universities are following through on the last affirmative action ruling
      • They might still be discriminating against Asian students 😟
    • Their PE asset allocation in endowment went from 20-40% since 2019
    • They will have to sell it at a discount because they need the funds - and this is an illiquid asset - bought it at the top and selling low
    • Another threat to universities is first the internet and then AI - everything is available for free online - the best courses - and folks will learn personalized
    • But at the end of the day - parents value brand - so that isn’t easily circumvented
    • But even for that there are new ways to filter - coding challenges, work challenges, etc
    • There are great opportunities available for folks who don’t have money
  • Grammarly acquires SuperHuman
    • They also bought Coda
    • Figma filed their S1 for IPO
    • AI startups are eating all other tools
  • Pop culture shout outs

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

What's your favourite Iron Maiden song?

Part of the NWOBHM ( ignoramuses can go ahead and google that :P ), Iron Maiden have rocked for a long time, with many brilliant compositions (yes compositions, as intricately crafted as any symphony you philistines - the cadence of mcbrain's drums, the richness of dickinson's voice, steve harris's incomparable lyrics and I will stop before waxing lyrical about the guitars of Dave Murray, Adrian Smith and Janick Gers....man!). So what is your favourite Iron Maiden song? I ask because frankly I don't think I have one, and I doubt if its possible for me to single any one out. (get it -- "single"? I use it while referring to songs? mmmpff :D, k, never mind) (wrt the inaugural blog post which was in keeping with the spirit of this webpage, I thought I might as well clear the air regarding the only thing meaningful in the whole piece - the title )
12 comments
Read more

Mxyztplk

kljfkldsajfks djfsdfklj23kj2kl3j423kl j4l23k jrkl;qjr;lwqej klqwjdklasdjklj234kj23kjsa kljdaskd'asdasd sad w 23 424k 23l4k23lk 4l23 4l32 kweerkwqe23 14 wqd asda d 234 2134 23 42343rldla;dkl;sakdl;kasl;dkas;ldk;asdklkasdklal23l;k4klsaldksaldksl;adk
7 comments
Read more

All In Podcast Episode 214 Recap and Notes February 7 2025

February 7 2025 Jason grifting for USAID (tongue in cheek!) Ray Dalio episode with Friedberg was a big hit Government seems to be kind of following his recommendations Antonio Gracias joins the program Legendary investor (Tesla, SpaceX, Uber, Athena, etc) DOGE vs USAID JFK established it via EO in 1961 Programs in ~130 countries Budget under Biden ~doubled from $26B to $45B Insane spending Twitter takeover ~$12.5B in debt Breaking even Biggest turnaround in history Company doing well No one came into the office - pens had gone dry in the conference room due to unuse Flowers were impeccable - 1000s of people’s worth of food being cooked everywhere and thrown into trash and not being even given to homeless Fixed the woke mind virus This is like a warmup for DOGE First he thought democracy was turning into bureaucracy Instead its becoming a kleptocracy Pure corruption Similar to 1941 Truman committe/commission Formed...
Post a Comment
Read more