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All In Podcast Episode 234 Recap and Notes July 4 2025

July 4 2025

  • AIS 2025
  • AllIn Tequila orders
  • Big Beautiful Bill
    • Vance had to cast tiebreak vote
    • AI regulation
      • Federal vs State?
  • Clean Energy Subsidies
    • Marginal cost of energy has to go to zero - any way you can produce energy - its a winning trade in the US over the next decade
    • CA has only 5 days of energy deficit per year (PGnE data)
      • Mostly ~50% utilized
  • Elon vs Trump wrt BBB
    • Seems both sides have a valid point of view about the deficit
    • Both too powerful to be able to get along too long
    • Ray Dalio has been calling this situation for a long time - our debt death spiral is probably already here
    • Goals vs Reality
      • 3% inflation → 2.4%
      • 3% GDP growth → 1.4%
      • 3% deficit to GDP → 6%
    • Question is if tax cuts and AI increase GDP growth - how will tariffs help - not sure how any of this works out
    • Balaji has already called that the US is bankrupt
    • This is the issue of our time
  • US dollar down > 10% in 2025

    • Dollar has devalued 50% or so in the last 35-40 years

    • So this is nothing new as an operating environment

    • See what Buffett says about it not being a winning trade to bet against the US

    • In the last 10 years - US treasuries held by foreign owners has dropped

    • Will the debt become more expensive in a smaller market?

    • Is this good that foreigners have less influence over US treasuries?

  • Harvard vs Trump
    • Harvard issuing $750M bond - they have budget issues - now with Trump conflict over DEI, etc
    • Not clear these universities are following through on the last affirmative action ruling
      • They might still be discriminating against Asian students 😟
    • Their PE asset allocation in endowment went from 20-40% since 2019
    • They will have to sell it at a discount because they need the funds - and this is an illiquid asset - bought it at the top and selling low
    • Another threat to universities is first the internet and then AI - everything is available for free online - the best courses - and folks will learn personalized
    • But at the end of the day - parents value brand - so that isn’t easily circumvented
    • But even for that there are new ways to filter - coding challenges, work challenges, etc
    • There are great opportunities available for folks who don’t have money
  • Grammarly acquires SuperHuman
    • They also bought Coda
    • Figma filed their S1 for IPO
    • AI startups are eating all other tools
  • Pop culture shout outs

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