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All In Podcast Episode 235 Recap and Notes July 12 2025

July 12 2025

  • Chamath fun at Lake Como - at Friedberg’s expense
  • Travis Kalanick and Keith Rabois join the show
  • Pony.ai
    • People are interested in an alternative to Waymo, Tesla etc in autonomous driving - and they are reaching out to TK (presumably others also) for breaking into this space
  • Cloud Kitchens
    • Bowl builder machine
    • Infra for better food (real estate, software, robotics)
    • Uber was “everyone’s private driver” and now he wants to do “everyone’s private chef”, etc
    • The machine can do 300 bowls an hour
    • Internet food court
  • AIS 2025 - Sep 7-8-9
  • Grok4 launch
    • Scores well in benchmarks
    • The Bitter Lesson - best to use a general approach that scales with computation
      • Any problem should be an endless search or learning task
    • Investable opportunity could be who has a leg up on scientific breakthroughs?
    • What is an AI model that can incorporate the scientific method? Then you could have 1000s of PhDs at your disposal once you have enough GPUs
    • Can these models help us create new physics? New treatments - then figure out how to test them in the real world
  • How can Grok4 catch up with ChatGPT?
    • OpenAI Product team is cracked!
    • Grok4 will need missionary zeal employees
    • What Tesla does well is the factory that produces the car - that is their true advantage - and in some ways that is the product, not the car itself
    • Vertical integration is their advantage (using Apple analogy)
    • They could ship a device that could really help them win
    • Bitter Lesson might apply only with enough data - some use cases there might NOT be enough data
  • OpenAI and Perplexity launching browsers
    • Perplexity Comet
    • ChatGPT has the advantage - they are becoming the verb for AI use
    • Google should be able to compete but their search is not going to win
    • Maybe an alternative strategy for Perplexity could be to pick a vertical and own it (like Bloomberg etc)
  • Elon’s “America Party”
    • Will be hard for Elon to make headway
    • People vote for ideas AND people
    • Trump has 95% approval rating in Republicans - highest in recorded history (Reagan was 93% tops)
    • “Elon is almost always right” - hard to bet against him
  • Trump federal govt layoffs

    • Supreme Court supported the layoffs

    • Insane increase in regulations over the last 3 decades

    • President is in charge of executive - but Congress can appropriate spending

  • Recommendations
    • American Manhunt on Netflix (Bin Laden documentary)
    • Water skiing
    • TK loves backgammon

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