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All In Podcast Episode 106 Notes December 2 2022

December 2 2022

  • Friedberg hungover
  • Scam Bankrun Fraud
    • Andrew Ross Sorkin gave him softball after softball
    • NYTimes continues to embarass themselves but George Stephanopoulos killed it on GMA
    • GMA interview was 2 hours reduced to 10 minutes
    • SBF was also on a 2 hour twitter spaces afterwards
    • Media has a very variable way to deal with this obvious fraud and crime
    • Strategy here is: cop to criminal negligence in order to avoid more serious charge of fraud
    • Wants to avoid image of Bernie Madoff in the press
    • He wants to succeed muddying the waters - so prosecutors can give him a plea deal so he doesn’t get sent away for life
    • Such narcissistic fraudsters think they can talk their way out of everything - because they have
    • Before this he was portraying himself as the smartest guy in the room - now he’s a babe in the woods
      • Hard to believe when he loaned himself a billion dollars of the company money
    • SBF and Trump through the lens of the media
      • 2016 Trump violated every rule of left liberal western media - in election they were proven wrong - 50+% of the country had a very different view of the person
      • So they doubled down and wanted to control the narrative and power
      • SBF went to perfect elite private high school - then perfect elite universities - MIT - parents went to elite institutions of america - Stanford - so they are in political left - wrapped himself in effective altruism - all the stuff people on the left have bought into
      • So now they refuse to underwrite this kid - its eating your own tail - because it would be admitting they were wrong
      • He manipulated them 1st time by making them think he’s like them
      • Now its to protect himself
      • Enormous financial fraud that millions of people lost money in - and media is missing accountability
      • Health establishment wants amnesty - atlantic magazine was willing to give it to them - media and institutions want authority but if they get it wrong they don’t want to be held accountable
    • Propublica/Vox/Semaphore etc all paid off by him
    • When there is institutional rot mice will come out to look for cheese - if not him, it would have been someone else
    • Prescribed legal prescription drugs using patches on their body
    • There is too much evidence of sophisticated behavior here to accept narrative of simpleton
      • Alameda had backdoors
      • Intentionality to hire people like Caroline Ellison
      • Who wasn’t hired: No board, no CFO
      • He is more sophisticated
    • Saying it had to happen excuses too much - he courted regulators, he donated to politicians, he courted the media
    • Only an insider could have pulled this off at scale -
    • Gensler is intertwined to the parents - parents bundled money to Elizabeth Warren - he is clearly a sophisticated con
    • Not a single reporter or a regulator thought to dig in - he said every thing they wanted to believe
    • Replace him with a random kid from public high school or public school - they don’t have the elite patina
    • So its not a crypto problem, its an elitism problem
    • He monetized his parents’ life work
    • People have been confused to think that opposite of liberal is republican or conservative, the opposite of liberal is illiberal - its to be puritanical, intolerant
      • If you are an elite you get to make the rules
    • No one in the media asked any questions about Alameda or FTX - no disgruntled employees? Not a single person came out - because the elites gave him a hall pass and he paid a lot of hush money
    • Media, regulators and VCs (capital allocators) failed to do due diligence or put in governance
    • SEC not only didn’t regulate him but he was in the room with them trying to craft regulations
    • CZ pulled out his funds and is being framed maybe not in the best light
  • FTX culpability
    • Semaphore is trying to frame it as a run on the bank - like its not his fault - they were not a bank
    • Margin accounts typically allow 30-35-50% tops
    • This token could not have got more than 5-10%
    • His collateral was no good
    • Alameda had auto liquidation turned off
    • David Z Morris coindesk article is quite good
    • John Carreyrou exposed Theranos but no one could have done it with FTX?
    • Bulk of responsibility rests with who
      • Investors
      • Regulators
      • Journalists
    • NYTimes and Semaphore should also apologize - when they make a mistake they never admit it
    • You are on your own now as a consumer - consumers have to become extremely literate and trust their own process for figuring out the truth
  • Media coverage
    • Xi Jinping is very powerful
    • Newsom had 10 pages of exceptions for his political donors for his lockdowns
    • Gretchen Whitmers, Tony Fauci etc all imposed lockdowns - when did they repent or disavow lockdowns
  • OpenAI
    • ChatGPT
    • Table read of Chamath, Sacks, JCal script talking about ChatGPT
    • Model takes only 200G of space - can fit on your iPhone
    • knowledge workers replaced
      • kids can get homework done
      • code can get written
      • real estate insurance sales people
      • copy writers
      • customer support
    • 100K startups are going to emerge
      • Bubble will form
    • Next hype cycle in SV will be this generative AI thing
    • This will disrupt the search box
      • Google started the onebox
      • Is there an entirely new model here that disrupts search
      • Andreesen tech VC vs journalist example is amazing
    • SaaS will be replaced by MaaS - Models as a Service
      • Models are still imprecise - so last 1-2% of getting it perfect will be important
      • Inference and Training
      • These model companies might need to go vertical - like tumor finding startups getting a hospital so they can get proprietary data
  • SaaS slowdown
    • Salesforce huge slowdown - net new ARR dropped 2-3rd from previous quarter
    • CAC payback was 2.5 years - now its 155 months
    • Vicious cycle:
      • Layoffs → Seat Contraction → Sales slowdown → Cut Costs → Layoffs: Repeat
    • Idea that growth is on autopilot could go in reverse
    • 2x is the new 3x
      • in this environment
    • Eventually all these models will get commoditized
    • Data is the new oil
    • Use devices as trojan horses to collect data

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