January 13 2023
- Slate did a profile on AllIn - can’t handle how big the Pod has become
- Journalist have a class hatred of tech investors and entrepreneurs - if you genuflect to their points of view they treat you well
- Why would you want to subject yourself to their filter if you always get a hit piece
- Its not journalism, its activism
- Journalists want to do what they’re doing is because they want influence
- Fox vs NYT, Vox, CNN, MSNBC, Atlantic
- Matt Yglesias can’t understand basics of finances - percentage vs basis point
- He is considered mainstream
- Journalists are subjective and biased and uninformed
- There are zero checks and balances for these terrible journalists - it isn’t caught in proof reading, editing, etc
- So numerically illiterate so it stood out - what else is being missed - these guys are chasing clicks
- Gell-Mann Amnesia effect - you know journalists know only 10%
- Now describing AllIn in terms of Elon - its Elon for clicks
- Nitish Pahwa?
- Another article called Sacks prophet of urban doom if he calls out how san francisco streets are messed up
- Basic society breakdown - homeless person hosed down by frustrated store owner
- You show the 10 second video but don’t show the 10 steps that led to it
- 1/4 or 1/3 of SF stores are vacant
- Lack of treatment is the problem, lack of homes is not the problem
- See Shellenberger’s work on this - 99% of people he speaks to say its very easy to be a drug addict in San Francisco
- We have gone too far from the opposite bad situation where there was mandated locking up of people with mental issues when it hurt some people who weren’t really mentally ill
- Power of language - untreated persons instead of homeless
- Because the mentally ill person is an adult you can’t force them into anything
- Reagan defunded psychiatric hospitals and emptied them up - he repealed the Mental Health Systems Act
- Gavin Newsom said he would end homelessness when he became Mayor of SF - and he has failed
- This problem wasn’t so bad 10-15 years ago
- $800 a week to homeless people in city of SF - this is politicians’ fault - the new ones
- Massive surplus to $25B deficit overnight due to Gavin Newsom
- They appropriated $10B out of budget for homelessness
- Special interest - homeless industrial complex - giant special interest and lobby
- ESG
- This week in grift
- $2T in debt owned by developing world - debt for nature swaps
- Toxic emerging market debt becomes ESG debt into your 401k
- Exxon is #7 top ranked company according to ESG but Tesla is not even ranked
- Industry of grift
- Microsoft putting $10B into ChatGPT
- $29B into business losing $1B in Azure credits per year
- Definitely next VC hype cycle - VC needs a savior - public markets are in the toilet - so VC really want something to be true
- Mobile was real, Cloud was real, Social kinda real, Crypto/Web3 hype cycle and bust, VR probably in hype cycle
- AI - hype real technically - unsure yet about return for VCs
- OpenAI is Microsoft proxy
- Google with DeepMind
- So probably this is for bigger companies?
- Amazing machine learning services available through cloud vendors today
- BioNTech buys UK AI startup
- This technology is being used in many industries already so its real obviously
- Google will become big - Microsoft will react, Facebook needs to figure out AR/VR vs AI
- They can all compete and make it free
- 2014 Google bought DeepMind
- People thought it was biggest threat to humanity that Google owned DeepMind
- So Reid Hoffman, Elon Musk etc started OpenAI to compete with this
- Started as non profit originally
- Sam Altman, Greg, Elon, Reid, Jessica Livingston, Peter Thiel, AWS, Infosys, YC Research
- $1B initially
- But Google gave away bunch of stuff for free - while OpenAI became profit-seeking
- Biggest opportunity here is for Facebook
- Google and Facebook are not really making progress
- 13yo kid knows when ChatGPT is out of resources
- Probably iPhone was the last technology that was so mainstream so fast
- Jason has ChatGPT ios app on his phone - looks like iMessage and threads
- Showed demo using Yelp kinda queries
- Jason signed up for ChatGPT premium - he filled out a survey
- History of online search/query is information retrieval
- AI/ML systems do synthesis or presentation - not just information retrieval
- Maybe not a hype cycle but an opportunity in rewriting all compute tools
- BioTech is using some such techniques - novelty in data is one way an advantage might arise
- Every business model that is dependent on legacy of information retrieval will have to be rewritten
- Sacks passed the bar first try
- He is an investor in copy.ai
- How accurate is the answer from ChatGPT is important - some professions it might be 6 9s of accuracy
- Parking ticket vs murder trial is a big difference
- Reid Hoffman having fireside chats with chatbots
- Real advantage will come from applications that can leverage proprietary datasets and use moat of reinforcement learning - you can build a sustainable business
- Prompt engineer will become a new title maybe - someone who is very good at talking to these instances
- 10x-20x more valuable in the company
- You might need much fewer people than you think you could reduce
- Reality is new work emerges and new opportunities emerge
- Minority Report, Ender’s Game
- 26% of US employment in manufacturing in 1970, now 10%
- Biden’s documents
- Office, library, garage with corvette
- Merrick Garland appointed special counsel to investigate Trump, and now has appointed for Biden also
- Biden, Trump and Hilary Clinton all ensnared in this classified documents issue
- Seems we have an over classification problem
- Since FOIA act, government is marking everything as classified
- Compounding problem is that we never declassify issues
- CIA keeps filibustering JFK assassination documents
- What incentives being created for politicians
- Never use email
- Never let anyone hand you a document
- So always go to a clean room, make an appointment, no photos - this is no way to run a government
- Don’t go into politics as a business person - they will investigate every deal you ever did
- Who does this benefit - not elected officials - benefits insiders - the permanent government
- This puts Trump in the news cycle
- Merrick Garland now has to drop the prosecution against Trump for the documents
- The washington establishment, the deep state are creating a system where they run everything and the elected officials have to listen them
- When you take an appointment - like say Ken Griffin - you can sell without capital gains
- Madoff series on Netflix
- SBF is going to be much bigger - so too much for SD of NY - because SBF donated all over the place
- Triangle of sadness
- Steal a little and they throw you in jail, steal a lot and they make you king
- Cabinets and Ambassadorships
- Cabinet heads are figureheads
- London is probably best ambassadorship - $10-$15M - spend per year to run it
- No one wanted to be ambassador under Trump
- Ambassador is a lifetime title
- AllIn Pod is more impactful than ambassadorship
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