January 27 2023
- Sacks moderating
- Won the poll 40%, Chamath 35%
- Roasting Chamath, Jason, Friedberg
- DOJ sues Google, pursues break up
-
Abuses role as largest broker, supplier in mobile ad auctions
-
Google says they’re trying to rewrite history
-
This just shows more of the personal enmity that people in US government have towards entrepreneurs
-
This is not a monopoly
-
Ma Bel had effectively 100% share
-
If you had done this chart a few years ago, Amazon would not have even been here - and now its 12% share - and only growing
-
Focused on trying to punish great american companies
-
Texas version of this exact lawsuit already fell out of court
-
If they want to target Google, they should go after search
-
Defined another way DOJ says Google has more market share - is this the right way to look at Google’s business?
-
Friedberg was Business Product Manager around the type of DoubleClick acquisition
-
Auction dynamic is powerful - creates best price for publisher and best quality for user
-
Google right now pays ~70% to publishers - very competitive
-
Historically publishers built their own salesforce to sell ads - but have found its better to use an ad network
-
Google is leader because they pay the publishers the most - if you break this up, publishers will be hurt
-
Because its an auction model, it prevents Google from making monopolistic rent
-
Netflix and Disney now have ad tiers to go up against YouTube
-
Seems DOJ is 10 years too late - should have done this decade ago when DoubleClick acquisition happened
-
Not good to unwind acquisitions - if you get approval from Government, you should assume you’re good
-
Else companies will have chilling effect on M&A
-
Hits US competitiveness against other regimes that will allow this
-
Instead rewrite actual laws if you have an issue with how the market has evolved
-
This action is like killing the golden goose - its one of the biggest tax payers
-
Market is becoming so much more competitive for ecommerce - companies have stopped spending on Google/Facebook and go directly to Amazon
-
Google is removing 3rd party cookies from 2024 - will be hard to track users across websites - like what Apple did
-
This is the definition of dynamic market
-
This example shows how our elected and appointed officials don’t understand policy - they should have asked the AllIn folks and others like them - if not who are they talking to?
-
Government is lashing out because they feel the companies are becoming too powerful
-
Uber is also doing an ad business now - $350M last year, projected to do $1B
-
In a marketplace its always easy to hate the winners - but it doesn’t mean its a monopoly
-
Envy is the doom of innovation and democracy
-
- Microsoft EU probe over video calls
-
Slack filed lawsuit in 2020 against Microsoft bundling
-
Chamath did Slack Series A and was there till they went public/exit
-
But now that Salesforce acquired them - it seems their hand was forced because they were not going up against another startup
-
Microsoft has done with this with Slack, Okta, Zoom
-
They used to do Vaporware announcements before
-
Microsoft is basically doing dumping - sure you get a slack clone for free initially which is good but then they raise the price of the bundle which is bad
-
So instead Microsoft should show price of each offering in bundle which should add up to the bundle price
-
Counter - these are not directly equivalent products like commodities, if your product is the same as the thing in the bundle, then you don’t deserve to win, your product needs to be differentiated
-
Startups also offer free initially and then raise prices later
-
So B2B software is effectively a commodity - so B2B SaaS should just all pack up
-
Maybe make ELA more transparent
-
- Pfizer CEO grilled at Davos
-
Rebel News reporters approached him on a walk
-
This video was removed from YouTube, etc but still on Twitter
-
Pfizer is commercial enterprise and so want to make money - $10B-$15B this year
-
Efficacy of vaccine waned pretty quickly - transmission rate went up actually over time
-
So is the vaccine ineffective or the virus (as expected) mutated?
-
They didn’t have another product to sell
-
Nature study out of France that says 18-24 males have elevated risk of myocarditis or pericarditis after vax
-
Another paper - Mass General studied this issue
-
Still can be 30 times higher in young people who take the moderna vaccine
-
It seems some proteins in your heart look like this vax spike proteins
-
Very active immune system causing more inflammation
-
People who had myocarditis had a lot of the spike protein floating around in their blood
- It was still there 3 weeks later
- Body is not clearing the spike protein
-
Rogan almost got cancelled for saying that he wouldn’t have got vaxed if he was a young person ~20 years old or something
-
There was tremendous social and legal pressure but people didn’t have option - there was dancing on the graves of people who died, there was idea of rejection from hospitals if you didn’t get vaxed
-
For normal FDA approval
-
Takes 9-10-12-13 years
-
Do studies to find if people will get worse or not
-
Strong process
-
Maybe AstraZeneca/JnJ vax were better?
-
Older white woman also shows troponin levels post vax - this can maybe cause myocarditis
-
-
Cost of lockdowns was very high - benefit was negligible because virus continued to evolve
-
Every other vaccine like polio, MMR ended those diseases
-
Consequences of not being willing to say you were wrong
-
Fair to say its not a vaccine like other vaccines
-
There is a massive incentive for Government to not admit their mistake → Keep influence
-
There is a massive incentive for Pfizer & Moderna to ship the vaccine → Make money
-
If we are going to do emergency use, then lets not mandate it
-
Booster?
- Friedberg → No
- Sacks → (Friedberg agrees) No unless it turns into Ebola
- Chamath → No
-
AllIn will get banned now 🙂
-
This has become a tribal issue
-
Speak to doctor and not 4 VCs
- Remember vax developers have business to run and politicians have to get reelected
-
- Ukraine War
- US is sending best most expensive tanks
- Ukraine wants jets as well
- Biden administration is warming to idea of helping Ukraine with Crimea
- Ukraine reconstruction will be ~$750B
- Ukraine will default (Fitch ratings)
- Europe could be radioactive wasteland
- Should we have pursued any diplomatic efforts to stop war?
- Seems US and Ukraine have decided to push Russia into a corner
- War Machine
- Reconstruction Machine
- Infrastructure funds
- War costs are always underestimated
- Telegraphing of these decisions publicly is being done with some reasoning
- Tactical nuclear weapons could happen
- These are a key part of the Russian war playbook
- They have systems in place
- When someone has outlived their usefulness, its time to sanction them - former US diplomat about Roman Abramovich
- Gen Milley had said a few months ago that Ukraine has exhausted all their military resources and should negotiate
- American objectives have been achieved - Ukraine protected and Europe is on American Natural Gas
- Reverse aging?
- Changes in Epigenome could cause aging but maybe not random mutation
- Historically though DNA changed a lot and mutations keep happening
- Mice study
- Genetically identical
- Aged one population
- Figured out it was epigenome
- Then reversed their aging using Yamanaka factors
- Epigenome is driver in aging
- Altos Labs raised $3B last year - in this area
- Now have much more definitive proof point for information theory of aging
- Really great paper by team led out of Harvard
- Mice lived 107% longer than they were supposed to - lived healthier also - health span
- Something here should be available in the next 10 years
- Can make money as an investor putting money into companies in this space
- Can reverse aging in lots of cells
- Might still have to live with plaque in arteries and brain - alzheimer’s, etc
- Canadian fan got his dad’s tumor found in PreNuvo and got it removed
- Heartflow
Comments