E122: March 31 2023
- JCal also doing sea salt and vinegar pistachios
- Joe Manchin calls out Biden flip flop
- Manchin - Nikki Haley will be an interesting ticket (or the other way around)
- OpenAI + Sacks writes GPT-4 powered blog post
-
Covered Jigsaw and their strategy of give to get
-
OpenAI release ChatGPT plugins
- Most important developer platform since the launch of the iPhone or maybe even ever
-
Fastest growing application of all time - 100M users in 2 months
- Fastest growing site of all time
-
They are now making ChatGPT a destination site - anything you could do through an application, you will now with a plugin
-
Google search could be destroyed by ChatGPT + plugin interface - very disruptive to commerce providers - disruptive to a lot of different industries
-
Apparently some Google employees quit because Bard was being trained on data from ChatGPT? This is a question right now
-
There could be an M&A bonanza coming for Silicon Valley - buying or getting exclusive licenses to Reddit, Quora, etc
-
Sacks started Genie, Chamath at AIM, Reid Hoffman started SocialNet - but the winner was someone who came later like Facebook - same with Google that came later after a bunch of companies had started
-
Bigger than the internet and mobile or biggest ever in history
-
OpenAI has a substantial lead and will only grow
- User Attention - 100s of millions of users
- Developer platform
- 1 problem is that training data ends in 2021 so it stops sometimes because it doesn’t have fresh data
- But now it has a browsing plugin - it searches the internet the way a human would and gives you browsing history
- Retrieval API - can share with ChatGPT - so you can share information with ChatGPT (Sacks is going to share his database of articles with ChatGPT to write a book) and the AI will get smarter and smarter
- Consumers and developers will want to use the smartest API - and that feeds on itself
- ChatGPT will eat a substantial amount of search - and then it will eat browser based websites - competitors will have to participate in it
-
Bard will be rolled into everything at Google and they could roll ChatGPT
-
Google Assistant is already used by 100s of millions of people
-
You can see how distribution gives you an advantage - when how Teams is so ahead of Slack inspite of not being as good a product
-
These companies are not stupid to give up their golden goose
-
- Google caught flat footed
- They were apparently violating the terms of use of OpenAI for their own AI - that’s not a good sign
- ChatGPT4 - they were working on it for 7 months, so its not even the state of the art - so Bard has no chance against ChatGPT right now
- Pace of innovation and development is going to be massive right now
- Typically in all these tidal waves the earliest folks don’t necessarily capture all the value - if history is a guide then its in the early third that the winners emerge
- The word on the street is that Larry and Sergey are back in the game and engaged at Google
- OpenAI’s advantage is that incumbents are hampered by their scale
- Google has been so targeted by governments around the world, etc for privacy, monopoly, etc
- Google has amazing talent
- Best user base, best data corpus, best hardware, etc
- This is their chance to not lose their lead - its their battle to lose - Larry and Sergey have to prove their founders letter right now - their founders share has to count
- If they don’t use it now, what will it take and when
- Google search, YouTube (transcripts, comments), Gmail
- Look at how Gerstner came after Zuck - the backlash against Google making a big bet like this would be hard - they are part of every public endowment, basically
- Larry and Sergey might be a little out of shape for this :) - Sam Altman has been in the arena for 8 years, head of YC before that and learning all the things that work
- Defensive posture at the top of Google exec team is going to hurt them
- Sundar and Friedberg started at Google on the same day - wearing same Noogler hat
- Google needs a Ballmer type of moment - war time CEO - or more of a Satya type of moment
- He also had to operate under a consent decree from the DOJ - government lawyers had to approve everything Microsoft shipped - that slowed him down - so Satya started from a blank slate without the consent decree and executed flawlessly
- Right now it doesn’t matter what Sundar, etc want - the problem is middle management - inability for them to get out of the way - you need someone to fire them - Facebook is targeting middle management - Elon’s companies have virtually no middle management
- Build product and ship it
- Containing AGI
- Elon, Steve Wozniak, DeepMind researchers, etc have signed this
- Short term its clear AI is very helpful like the guy whose dog was saved by ChatGPT
- Its just a matter of time before we find out the hard way that this is out of our control
- 70% of last year’s startups were AI, now it will be 90% - so a lot of positives will come out because everyone will follow this trend
- Coding for hire jobs will get disrupted - TCS, Cognizant, Accenture
- This is the first time that humans are being challenged with autonomous systems that also can provide judgement
- AI could fly planes for us too
- Limiting factor on progress is engineering bandwidth - product roadmap is usually the problem (not getting enough of it done)
- So much software still needs to be made
- Restrict Act is dangerous
- Actively monitoring citizens’ network traffic
- This looks and feels a lot like what happens in China
- Biggest bait and switch that US govt has ever pulled on us
- They are restricting people, not Tiktok
- US person using VPN to access Tiktok could be imprisoned and fined $1M
- Sweeping powers to executive branch
- How is this different from great firewall from China
- Just do what they do in India - they just directly block Tiktok
Comments