Skip to main content

All In Podcast Episode 124 Recap and Notes April 14 2023

April 14 2023



  • AllIn Fan Meetups for E125
    • 31 cities where people are getting together to listen/watch the show
    • Similar to Rush rooms in the early 90s for Rush Limbaugh
  • Understanding AutoGPTs
    • Bunch of GPTs talking to each other in the background - like updating CRM, databases, book meetings, etc
    • Github - code repository - where AutoGPT
    • You can give it an assignment and then it can string together a bunch of prompts - so its the basis for autonomy
    • Example: you are an event planner AI, plan a trip for me in Healdsburg this weekend including wine tasting, kid friendly requirements, people, etc - it did all of this by itself
    • This is basis for a personal digital assistant
    • Seminal moment - one after the other coming thick and fast
    • This will be hard for people to control this
    • Stanford and Google paper on Sims style simulation
    • This week shows how fast the recursion is with AI
    • Other technologies - takes a year or more - iPhone1, iPhone2, app store, etc
    • Now breakthroughs are in days or weeks
    • Huge implications to big actors
      • How do you start a company anymore
        • Why do you need a 40-50 person company to try to get to an MVP - you can do that with 3-4 people
      • What about investors and VCs
        • You would write huge checks for teams and now Midjourney shows you can do it with an extremely small amount of money
        • Example: Fund 4 for Chamath was $1B - now it will be $50M
      • Disrupt big companies
    • Just the founders should be needed to build v1
    • Its a tool that gives humans leverage
    • Whole concept of publishers and publishing might go away - software could also go the same way - don’t need software startup or company - but user just tells the AI agent what they need and it does everything for them
    • Individuals could speak plain english and everything happens for them
    • Augmentation, Automation, Deprecation
    • Developers will be replaced - 10x developers will be good, 1x developers will not be needed
    • AI is emotionless - was not sold something
    • Agents execute within budgets
    • Don’t need sales and marketing staff in a bunch of places
    • This creates an obvious set of public company shorts
    • Can fund 100s of 1 person teams - ask them to crack various problems
    • Runway is an example of getting films, etc from text prompt
    • ILM on down could get replaced - Directors will use Runway, etc - the difference between storyboards and outputs is closing in the next 30 months or so
    • ILM or Pixar entire team could be unneeded in the next decade
    • All the tooling creators now have will be much more powerful - you can choose the limits of your content - creators who win will have more dynamic range of their content
      • Different viewers will have their own options of consuming the content
        • Different characters, different names, different length of the content itself
    • Business model - platform is the play, not publishers
      • Can create multi-$100B franchises
  • AI regulation
    • Should regulate AI like drugs, air travel, etc
    • Section 230 was a failure
    • AI should have a regulatory body that is not politicians
    • Not sure how this will work - how can you regulate writing software?
    • ChaosGPT
      • It can be scary
    • There is no double blind study in AI that anyone can do right now
    • Software’s magic is permissionless innovation - replace this with going to Washington to get it approved by highly regulatory body - this will turn into a game of political connections
    • There is no drug company which is 2 guys in a garage
    • Other countries will not slow down and will beat the US to the punch
    • Catastrophic outcome might hurt us so bad that it might be worth it to slow people down
    • Chainalysis - figured out BTC addresses
      • it has cleaned up BTC community - has helped - the blockchain preserves evidence perfectly
      • James Zhong - got a bunch of extra BTC - now got hit by the Feds
  • Bob Lee case
    • Very different story from earlier speculation
    • People commented on SF - never considered the possibility that he was murdered by someone he knew
    • Still a commentary on SF
      • Same week of Bob Lee - Don Carmigniani was hit on the head within an inch of his life by homeless people - one of the people was a known Marina trespasser
      • Whole Foods on Market St shut down - they said they could not protect their employees - bathrooms were full of needles, etc engaging in altercations with store employees
      • Board of Supervisors had to disband their own meeting because their fiber connection was vandalized
    • Media reacts as an immune system to not let narrative change
    • How Elon dismantled BBC - they just want more censorship
    • Now with SF they want decarceration - so they want to deny rise in crime - majority of SF people believe there is higher crime
    • Multiple levels
      • Open air drug market
      • Poop
      • Harassment
      • Car break in
      • Mugged
      • Murder
    • Just because you’re not getting murdered - doesn’t mean bottom of pyramid wasn’t huge - the whole pyramid exists
    • This is the essence of gaslighting - the people who created these conditions - decriminalizing crime under $950, decarceration, etc
    • Mayor’s office said they are short 500 police officers
    • Rumors about quiet quitting by police officers
    • Prosecutory zeal only for dealing with police officers
    • The BBC reporter filled in his own narrative even though the data wasn’t there

Comments

Post a Comment