April 14 2023
- AllIn Fan Meetups for E125
- 31 cities where people are getting together to listen/watch the show
- Similar to Rush rooms in the early 90s for Rush Limbaugh
- Understanding AutoGPTs
- Bunch of GPTs talking to each other in the background - like updating CRM, databases, book meetings, etc
- Github - code repository - where AutoGPT
- You can give it an assignment and then it can string together a bunch of prompts - so its the basis for autonomy
- Example: you are an event planner AI, plan a trip for me in Healdsburg this weekend including wine tasting, kid friendly requirements, people, etc - it did all of this by itself
- This is basis for a personal digital assistant
- Seminal moment - one after the other coming thick and fast
- This will be hard for people to control this
- Stanford and Google paper on Sims style simulation
- This week shows how fast the recursion is with AI
- Other technologies - takes a year or more - iPhone1, iPhone2, app store, etc
- Now breakthroughs are in days or weeks
- Huge implications to big actors
- How do you start a company anymore
- Why do you need a 40-50 person company to try to get to an MVP - you can do that with 3-4 people
- What about investors and VCs
- You would write huge checks for teams and now Midjourney shows you can do it with an extremely small amount of money
- Example: Fund 4 for Chamath was $1B - now it will be $50M
- Disrupt big companies
- How do you start a company anymore
- Just the founders should be needed to build v1
- Its a tool that gives humans leverage
- Whole concept of publishers and publishing might go away - software could also go the same way - don’t need software startup or company - but user just tells the AI agent what they need and it does everything for them
- Individuals could speak plain english and everything happens for them
- Augmentation, Automation, Deprecation
- Developers will be replaced - 10x developers will be good, 1x developers will not be needed
- AI is emotionless - was not sold something
- Agents execute within budgets
- Don’t need sales and marketing staff in a bunch of places
- This creates an obvious set of public company shorts
- Can fund 100s of 1 person teams - ask them to crack various problems
- Runway is an example of getting films, etc from text prompt
- ILM on down could get replaced - Directors will use Runway, etc - the difference between storyboards and outputs is closing in the next 30 months or so
- ILM or Pixar entire team could be unneeded in the next decade
- All the tooling creators now have will be much more powerful - you can choose the limits of your content - creators who win will have more dynamic range of their content
- Different viewers will have their own options of consuming the content
- Different characters, different names, different length of the content itself
- Different viewers will have their own options of consuming the content
- Business model - platform is the play, not publishers
- Can create multi-$100B franchises
- AI regulation
- Should regulate AI like drugs, air travel, etc
- Section 230 was a failure
- AI should have a regulatory body that is not politicians
- Not sure how this will work - how can you regulate writing software?
- ChaosGPT
- It can be scary
- There is no double blind study in AI that anyone can do right now
- Software’s magic is permissionless innovation - replace this with going to Washington to get it approved by highly regulatory body - this will turn into a game of political connections
- There is no drug company which is 2 guys in a garage
- Other countries will not slow down and will beat the US to the punch
- Catastrophic outcome might hurt us so bad that it might be worth it to slow people down
- Chainalysis - figured out BTC addresses
- it has cleaned up BTC community - has helped - the blockchain preserves evidence perfectly
- James Zhong - got a bunch of extra BTC - now got hit by the Feds
- Bob Lee case
- Very different story from earlier speculation
- People commented on SF - never considered the possibility that he was murdered by someone he knew
- Still a commentary on SF
- Same week of Bob Lee - Don Carmigniani was hit on the head within an inch of his life by homeless people - one of the people was a known Marina trespasser
- Whole Foods on Market St shut down - they said they could not protect their employees - bathrooms were full of needles, etc engaging in altercations with store employees
- Board of Supervisors had to disband their own meeting because their fiber connection was vandalized
- Media reacts as an immune system to not let narrative change
- How Elon dismantled BBC - they just want more censorship
- Now with SF they want decarceration - so they want to deny rise in crime - majority of SF people believe there is higher crime
- Multiple levels
- Open air drug market
- Poop
- Harassment
- Car break in
- Mugged
- Murder
- Just because you’re not getting murdered - doesn’t mean bottom of pyramid wasn’t huge - the whole pyramid exists
- This is the essence of gaslighting - the people who created these conditions - decriminalizing crime under $950, decarceration, etc
- Mayor’s office said they are short 500 police officers
- Rumors about quiet quitting by police officers
- Prosecutory zeal only for dealing with police officers
- The BBC reporter filled in his own narrative even though the data wasn’t there
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