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All In Podcast Episode 156 Recap and Notes December 7 2023

December 7 2023

  • Tucker episode feedback was great
  • Ivy League antisemitism hearings
    • Harvard has abysmal record on free speech (see FIRE survey results)
    • Victim groups vs oppressor groups
    • Donors were OK to donate to universities when they didn’t realize whether they were in the oppressor or victim group
    • What if other ethnic groups were targeted?
    • Can be traced back to when USNews and World Report started ranking schools - these schools started chasing asset management - learning became secondary
      • Mission of these universities has been lost
    • Color blindness is now considered racism
      • Was the civil rights movement’s basic tenet
    • TBD if these leaders will get fired
    • Kids and parents have to decide whether they want to go to these schools
  • State of the economy
    • Only in the US is feeling tied to politics but not reality
    • Are wages keeping up with inflation?
    • If there is a quarter point interest rate cut, $1T out of $5.7T sitting in money market accounts will become active
  • SaaS
    • Lots more startups shutting down



    • Seems SaaS ARR is going up



    • Seems Software Recession has ended?

    • But Spotify just did layoffs?

  • Friedberg is Ohalo CEO
    • Very excited about it
    • Read a paper and contacted Judd about it and they brainstormed and started the company
    • Gene editing
    • Dearth of great leadership talent in the valley
    • Hard problems require a lot of money - you want to entrust that money into someone who has proven themselves - those people have a lot of options because they have done a good job
    • If there’s a lot of free money, you have fragmented talent - instead of concentrated talent at a bigger company
  • Google Gemini
    • Google has the most data on earth
    • Can everyone inside the company get together to go in the same direction
    • There will be lots of foundational models and their cost will go to zero
    • Who will make money - infra and apps
  • Adobe Figma acquisition is stalled
    • UK CMA
    • Merger was announced over 15 months ago - regulators taking too long - what are they doing? Businesses deserve better turnaround times
    • US - DOJ, EU, UK - CMA
    • How can 1 country hold up a deal?
    • This pertains to the whole startup ecosystem
    • They are making a novel argument
    • Figma and Adobe are different - former creates code for websites but latter creates marketing collateral
    • They can just block any deal based on their bogus argument on that these companies might compete in the future
    • This is gonna have a chilling effect on the startup ecosystem
    • CMA document is 460 pages!!!
      • Speculating nonsense (their assessment of probability of future competition is bogus - precogs crap)
      • Punishing companies’ SWOT analysis as acknowledgement of being a bad actor
    • UK GDP is $3T, EU is $16T, US = $20-$25T
      • Smallest market is creating biggest problems for the merger
    • This fundamentally hurts UK productivity in the long term
    • How can companies not get a reasonable SLA
    • In order to have a healthy startup ecosystem, we need exits - if you’re an acquirer or a target and you know it will take 15+ months and the standard to vet it is arbitrary then there will be less risk capital that goes into this

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