April 12 2024
- Friedberg moderating, JCal out
- AIS 2024
- Back to LA
- Sep 8-10
- Upgraded experience
- Nvidia
- They are strong in learning
- They are trying to build a business in inference
- Structural innovator’s dilemma - learning vs inference
- There might be an opportunity for new chip startups
- Western cities in decline
- Chamath was in Paris, complaining about same stuff like London and San Francisco, etc
- Decriminalization, de-carceration agenda is hurting at least the big US cities that are mainly blue
- Lessening of prosecutions for crime
- Hard to change a 1 party state
- People who live in these places are complaining
- Google Cloud Next trip for Friedberg
- Platform is amazing - so many companies build ecosystem around that
- Everyone is also trying to do multi-cloud
- Cloud is a wide open competitive market
- There is no AWS or Azure lock-in - or less of it
- The clouds are competing for the consultants who will do the work for their customers - CapGemini, Deloitte, etc
- Inflation higher than forecast - 3.5%
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Reported by Bureau of Labor statistics
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Next rate move could be upwards instead of downwards
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Larry Summers has been right about inflation all along
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Inflation higher than being reported - government just changed the formula
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Bad news for Biden
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If we get a rate hike, Biden is toast
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Narrative of inflation under control is being refuted clearly with the data
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Apparently someone at the Fed plagiarized?
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One way other countries affect politics in US for example
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Oil prices going up (chart 1), even though US producing more oil (chart 2), rest of the countries produce less (chart 3)
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So now oil prices here go up, so inflation goes up, hurts the US, hurts the current US administration
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So this is a vote against Biden
- Structural disillusionment with current administration
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Other countries making decisions in their own interest
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So this is why persistent inflation rate might be true
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So now to buy votes they are doing student loan forgiveness and debt forgiveness type work - this will just lead to more inflation
- Clearly trying to buy votes
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Govt debt service is going up like crazy - debt spiral - borrowing money to pay off all the interest
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Govt will try to distract the population with war, etc
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- AI copyright bill
- Introduced by Adam Schiff (known for Russia gate)
- Special interest deal to do lobbying and for regulatory capture
- He is an LA congressman and just currying favor with his clientele
- OpenAI transcribed a million hours of YouTube to train GPT-4 - according to NYT - if that’s true then simple musicians won’t be able to do anything
- How do we define what is copyrightable and what is not?
- The infringement is on the production of the new artifact - not on how the model was trained, right?
- Incumbents will just get fined but get their moat
- Udio - music GenAI
- Things are moving really fast - so shouldn’t let lawsuits slow things down
- Drone warfare
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New normal
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Heavily being used in Ukraine-Russia war
- Russia might have 7-1 drone advantage
- Russia able to jam Ukrainian drones also
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Houthis also able to use drones to their advantage
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Chamath invested in Saildrone
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Might lead to fewer human casualties on all sides over time
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Next generation could be autonomous drones that don’t need a tele-operator sending them signals that can be jammed
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70% of Li-Ion battery production in China - so how will US compete in drone warfare?
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To combat, use EMP?
- Lot of SV startups getting funded recently
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There is no choice but use machines for war because there is an all-time low in enlistment over time
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Sacks invested in a company that makes something called BullFrog - that shoots down drones
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