All the crap you never needed

August 30 2024 Reif Hoffman joins Paypal memories Sacks figured out the business model quick Hoffman kept all attackers at bay Bill Harris fired from Paypal - conspiracy at Antonio’s Nut House in Palo Alto apparently AI Crazy NVIDIA growth Training vs Inference will play out in a year or two Satya is the best public market CEO of our generation - Hoffman Big tech is buying GPUs to be better positioned - can’t miss out on the wave Lots of winners to come in AI - open source as well as closed Multi model approach will quickly be universal OpenAI corporate structure InflectionAI Lina Khan, FTC Can’t hurt the chance for returns on risk capital Her actions are chilling that market and having the opposite effect - not increasing competition Apple - fewer people hate it - its less offensive Politics chat Biden vs Kamala RFK Jr ballot controversies Extremist rhetoric is to get the votes of the extremes Jan 6 is red line RFK Jr Was offered VP - refused Found c...

August 23 2024 Sit to pee BLS revises job numbers down ~30% 818000 down - March 2023 - Mar/Apr 2023 2.9M → 2.1M Largest revision since 2009 (GFC) Professional and business services down Sacks called it MIT publishes admissions data post affirmative action end Racial composition has changed from previously Tier 2 schools’s students might be better than Tier 1 schools’s because they are not corrupted by woke DEI nonsense, are less entitled and work harder Election Kamala doing better in the polls (Silver Bulletin shows her kinda in the lead) But Polymarket has Trump ahead Polling vs Prediction Markets is interesting Comparison of tickets Private vs Public JD Vance is historically the most unpopular VP pick Media coverage of Harris is 84% +ve and Trump is 89% -ve Walz and Harris have only ever worked for the government Vance and Trump have worked in private business Gina Raimundo caught being unaware of BLS - reacted with shock to jobs repo...

 E192: August 16 2024

August 9 2024 Jason back from covid CDC admits you can treat Covid like the flu now Japan yen carry trade Ideally could be safer to invest in US TBills at 5% with yen borrowings Algorithmic trading could have led to cascading effects Japanese economy Demographic time bomb Average age is 48 now, from 21 in 1950 30% of their budget is social security But to fund this you need to keep interest rates low So that leads to inflation So now you raise interest rates - causing things to crash There’s 4 kinds of economies/countries Developed Undeveloped Japan Argentina This is good for US treasury - coz this yen goes into US T Bills - US debt is growing by $1T every 100 days Recession fears in the US? Airbnb stock dropping could be a leading indicator? Need some government efficiency Private sector is already in recession basically - economy is being propped up by government spending Open border policy causes lower wages and competitive job market - this is...

August 2 2024 Chamath frees the button Jason out sick with Covid Friedberg moderates!! Kamala Harris is doing well in the polls Nate Silver’s model is quite favorable to Harris now, she’s gaining on Trump Biden dropped out of the race - he was a surefire loser, so Dems were divided, now there’s euphoria for Kamala, so they’re united and happy Biden was down because he couldn’t campaign This will be a close race But Kamala hasn’t done any real interview or press conferences, no tough questions, has only read from a teleprompter, done scripted appearances and has reversed policy Switched on single payer, court packing, fracking, border, crime, gun buybacks, fund raising for rioters from 2020 (now distancing herself) So she’s getting a free pass because MSM is basically part of DNC But is it sustainable for 100 days leading up to the election? J D Vance Dems called Mitt Romney a fascist Hopefully Trump and Harris can do 2-3 debates Nate Silver analy...