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All In Podcast Episode 230 Recap and Notes May 31 2025

May 31 2025

  • Sacks wearing Brioni
  • AIS 2025
  • AI Doomerism

    • Anthropic CEO predicts layoffs to rise

    • AI has risks but seems these guys have a pattern of creating sensationalism

    • When you have more leverage possible - then you do more - just because software can be written by AI models - now you will see more investment, not less

    • Premise that AI destroys jobs is wrong because it ignores the much higher return on capital that you will get when you use AI

    • Is there any correlation between these pronouncements from Anthropic and their fund raising activity?

    • There seems to be a whole industrial complex of this

    • There is a lot of patterns here

    • Dustin Moskovitz is apparently involved - Dario’s family is also apparently involved

    • The agenda here is global AI governance maybe?

    • Global Compute governance proposing all kinds of globalist AI regulations

    • This seems similar to Biden AI agenda also

    • Powerful Biden staffers work at Anthropic (Elizabeth Kelly, Tarun Chhabra, etc)

    • So Anthropic, Biden administration and Dustin Moskovitz (EA) are all interlinked it seems

    • Existential risk (x risk) is not the only risk - what about China winning the AI race?

    • Tried and true tactic of people who want to give more power to the government by scaring people

    • Government control of AI is the biggest risk with AI (and a risk that we have evidence for - see what happened with woke AI last year and how people involved with the AI were infusing the AI with their left wing biases)

      • Biden admin was almost requiring DEI to be part of the models

    • Effective Altruism holier than thou types

    • The EA ideology is trying to lock down compute

    • Satya (Nadella) talks about how AI and automation might affect GDP growth

    • Every technological revolution has only made people’s lives better

    • Its a power grab to give the government and these orgs all this power before the problem is here

    • Entry level jobs and new grad jobs will be harder to come by - they can go to smaller and younger companies

    • Be AI-native from the jump

  • Life with AI
    • Will AI hit management jobs first or entry level?
    • Is it a false narrative that any 1 country will “win” the AI race? Who won the industrial revolution or the internet revolution?
    • AI has economic benefits and military benefits
  • Big Beautiful Bill

    • DOGE cuts can’t happen in BBB because its a reconciliation bill but it can happen in a separate rescission bill

      • DOGE affects discretionary spending
      • This bill affects mandatory spending

    • CBO scoring affects perception of the bill

    • Chamath expects GDP growth above 3% in the next cycle

    • Medicaid spending even after cut is 40% above pre-covid level

    • Even SNAP spending grew too much so even after cut its still much higher than pre-covid level

    • Peter Navarro op-ed should be read

      • Points out how GDP growth numbers are higher than what CBO had estimated

    • Deregulation will also help GDP growth (easier faster to build factories, start new drugs, etc)

    • Federal receipts as percentage of GDP

    • Federal net outlays as % of GDP

    • The US is short on power

      • Can do solar and get power demand fixed today - everything else is going to take much longer
  • US Steel/Nippon Steel deal
    • Biden had blocked it - Trump approved it
    • New precedent in US (similar to other countries) where government can invest in a company
    • What is the balance between allowing free market and avoiding crony capitalism vs government playing favorites?
    • This is a slippery slope - bureaucrats will make this worse
    • Govt should instead fix $4.5T of social security funds

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