March 6 2026
- Emil Michael - Under Secretary of War
- Operational axe/Fixer/Rainmaker for Travis Kalanick at Uber
- Chamath having fun on Twitter
- Iran War
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US and Israel attacked Saturday
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Trump claims this is to nerf Iran’s ability to develop ICBMs
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Iran is a prodigious drone maker
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This likely is to hit Iran and China’s relationship
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China is currently projecting its lowest growth in 30 years
- With rising unemployment (youth especially), lower growth, higher population, they are in trouble
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China energy mix
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This could hem in China at an opportune moment to get a Grand Bargain with China
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Rules of Engagement have changed - they were punishing and needed to have a legal understanding - those things have changed now
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Drones are increasingly important in warfare, security, surveillance, golden dome
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He told Anthropic that if you don’t let US use the models, it will just hurt us because anyway their model is being stolen by the Chinese
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Jason claims he’s a moderate
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- Oil prices and Insurance
- Strait of Hormuz is not open for business just now (shutdown by IRGC)
- Good move by Trump to help US Development Finance to ensure maritime trade keeps working
- This could reshore or onshore maritime insurance on to the US (vs Lloyd’s of London, etc)
- Anthropic vs US
- Deemed supply chain risk (first US company this has happened to vs earlier against Russian or Chinese companies)
- Anthropic got into government quite sticky with FDEs, etc during Biden administration when that admin was trying to restrict AI companies
- Anthropic wanted to impose their morality - it became a PR campaign for them
- Raises question about risk using these tools - they are supposed to be tools but surprisingly the company insiders have a lot of influence based on their own preferences and political tendencies
- Sam Altman to his credit didn’t trash Anthropic and tried to help
- Emil wants to give all the competitors the same terms
- In enterprise people are seeing 3x cost increase in 3 months but revenue is not going up 3x as fast
- 8090 Cursor costs > Claude costs
- Supply Chain Risk terminology because Defense can’t risk anything down the pipeline
- It seems Dario wants to be the Secretary of War implicitly
- One of the fastest growing businesses ever - apparently added $6B ARR in the last month
- Anthropic claims they are being penalized because they didn’t donate to Trump
- US Defense Supply chain
- One of the reason there were just a few defense “prime” players because they succeeded in navigating government bureaucracy - so that’s a competitive advantage that’s not good for the system
- Also oversees DARPA
- Chinese competition - they have had the biggest military build up in world history
- Defense is the thing we need to keep doing the things we do
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