All In Interview - Ray Dalio - Recap and Notes - March 3 2026

March 3 2026

• Ray Dalio 3rd time back
• Had made some good input on last appearance just when Trump was getting inaugurated
• Deficit was hoped to be reined in to 3% but now its 6% (deficit to gdp)
• Backdrop - sadly too much war and irreconciliable differences between both parties
• Foreign buyers will be hesitant then
  • Dollar denominated debt is already a large percentage of their portfolio
  • Geopolitical risks also there - debtor and creditor could have conflict (US/China, US/Europe even?)
• These kinds of cycles have happened repeatedly through history
• Structurally a little difficult to do DOGE kind of efforts at this stage
• Gold
  • Not some precious metal that people speculate on - its the second largest currency that central banks choose to keep
  • Distinguish wealth from money
    • Wealth you can’t spend (buildings, etc)
      • You have to sell it to spend
    • Money you can spend
  • Gold could be considered to now have reached a fair value vs being undervalued earlier
  • Countries and people should worry if they have enough gold?
  • Have 5-15% of your portfolio in Gold
    • Diversifier when **** hits the fan
    • Ask the question if that is safe?
• BTC didn’t go up so much - why?
  • can be monitored - doesn’t give privacy
  • who else owns it? need to know
  • seems to have correlation with tech stocks
  • relatively small market that can be relatively controlled
• Silver?
  • Might be more of a trend
• Fed
  • Taxes, Spending and Interest rates are 3 important factors right now given how much debt we have
  • One man’s debts are another’s assets
  • The K-economy
    • Challenging for the Fed
• Tariffs
  • Economists typically don’t include taxes in inflation
  • 3% 3 part solution - taxes, spending, interest rates - he is in favor similar to Scott Bessent
  • The biggest problem with the wealth gap - which is a social problem is a productivity gap and that needs to be solved first
• 3 things needed to have a successful country
  • Need to educate your children well so they can learn to be civil with each other
  • They need to come to a civil environment so they can be productive so no civil wars
    • When the causes people are behind are more important to them than the system, then the system is in jeopardy
  • Have to stay out of wars - no international wars
  • So we basically need to stop fighting
  • This is mob disorder and inefficiency - only way out is to have a tough leader who can force tough choices
  • We are in the stage 5 of the end of empire cycle
    • Bad finance, large wealth and values differences, external threats and domestic threats - these things cause problems
• AI Bubble?
  • You think you are buying the technology when you buy the company’s stock - but that’s not true - companies can behave in all kinds of ways
  • AI might eat itself if its not producing adequate profits
  • American profit system (expenditures need to be paid back) might get hit by Chinese usage based system (free + open source)
  • Its tough to balance financial prudence with innovative inventions