September 10 2022
- Intro
- Chamath Birthday party recap
- Besties are influencers
- Kevin Hart did great
- Code conference - Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher - 20 years now
- Steve Jobs at the first one
- Hit pieces on All In
- Information reached out (Eric Newcomer)
- New Republic trying to do a hit piece on Sacks
- Kevin Roose, NY Times
- JCal is getting a lot of interest - 1200 people reached out for webinar
- Queen Elizabeth 2 death
- 17 prime ministers
- witness to history of modern world
- 70 years of service, stoic, diligent
- Winter is coming
- Europe’s energy crisis
- Western alliance fracturing potentially
- Russia turning off Nordstream 1 - claiming faulty turbine
- Russian gas import has fallen 89 percent
- France’s 56 nuclear plants are running at 50% strength because of rusting issues
- 40% of Europe’s energy consumption comes from Russian natural gas
- Heating and cooling is directly tied to above and below 65 F
- When power goes away
- Cut base load
- Cut industrial production
- Cut heating and cooling
- Normal cuts are 5, 10, 15 % - 40% is too much
- Price rise of like 8x 15x is unbearable for normal household, normal business
- European citizens, increasingly in Eastern europe are saying that war needs to end
- A voice that was not very loud at the start of the war
- Why is Europe in trouble?
- An entire continent was shamed into walking away from energy independence by a 16 year old girl - Greta Thunberg - goofball on the left - goofball on the right (Trump) whose language turned people off - in the UN he was right, Germans were laughing - they are ones who are clearly proved foolish - Greta Thunberg has no understanding of science and technology - she was nominated for a Nobel Prize - entire world turned a blind eye to science and mathematics and forget supply and demand - entire Europe is on brink of recession - maybe worse - this is forcing a Russian Endgame
- Germany will probably be the first to capitulate
- US and Europe have to create the settlement
- 10s of millions of people’s lives are going to be affected
- An entire continent was shamed into walking away from energy independence by a 16 year old girl - Greta Thunberg - goofball on the left - goofball on the right (Trump) whose language turned people off - in the UN he was right, Germans were laughing - they are ones who are clearly proved foolish - Greta Thunberg has no understanding of science and technology - she was nominated for a Nobel Prize - entire world turned a blind eye to science and mathematics and forget supply and demand - entire Europe is on brink of recession - maybe worse - this is forcing a Russian Endgame
- Goldman Sachs Sep 8 report on Europe energy crisis has details
- 20 euros per megawatt hour, its now 200 euros per megawatt hour - this is crazy
- Yet, France, Germany and UK are still supporting Ukraine and opposing Russia
- A report came out that Boris Johnson asked Zelensky to not take a deal with Russia when there was a chance earlier this year
- Agenda of european leaders is to pursue a policy of no compromise and will not stop at hurting their people with no food and energy
- So European governments are going to be turned over - Liz Truss in, Boris Johnson out
- Tony Blair was Bill Clinton of UK - very talented as a politician - made 1 mistake - went up with GW Bush’s Iraq war - he has 0 credibility in the UK now - sad story
- European leaders are making similar mistake now with Biden’s proxy war on Russia
- Obviously this is retaliation by Russia - but how stupid that Western leaders are indignant about what Russia is going to do - play their only card - Western leaders should have worked out a peace deal
- So US has to broker a deal with Russia for Europe - now that winter is coming
- Putin’s calculus is to go as far and as deep as he can go so he can retreat to his basic stuff - what he actually wanted - this is his face saving
- Face saving from West is going to be - see we got him out of this, out of that, etc
- European economies will be shattered, food will climb, people will become unhappy, currency will climb, imports will be extremely expensive
- The dominant narrative is its binary - between autocracy and democracy
- Its more complicated than that - american and british media pretend like this whole thing started on Feb 24
- Bill Clinton’s Defence Secretary William Perry wrote an article about how the US lost Russia
- He almost resigned regarding NATO expansion eastward - which was against the deal
- US started this in the late 1990s - it would be seen as provocative by Russia
- When Russia collapsed going away from Soviet - US didn’t help them and so a strong man emerged
- Russia had 2 demands before the war
- No Ukraine in NATO
- No missiles near their border hitting Moscow within 5 minutes
- US refused those demands - and so when Russia says those are their problems, they claim its a pretext - you want to take it off the table, then if Russia still claims it then its a pretext
- When a war goes bad in the US, we just ghost it - we never talk about Iraq and Afghanistan - there is no accountability - same people who drove disastrous Middle East policy are now driving Ukraine policy
- You can’t just be energy independent - then countries wouldn’t trade
- It doesn’t matter if there is an autocracy or democracy on the other side, trade is governed by global trade agreements - and when the trade breaks down, its a failure on both sides
- Neo-liberal theory - economic inter-dependency leads to less war - hasn’t turned out well
- Global trade is amazing - consumers get cheapest goods, producers get biggest market
- Energy isn’t needed to be traded today - because of technology and each nation can produce its own energy
- There is very little historical precedent remaining that economic interdependence prevents war
- Chinese policy from US has been a disaster - because China got rich - they had $2 per day per person in 1990 - the Chinese tiger became a dragon - now their economy is as big as US - US has created a competitor to itself - that will challenge US for primacy in Asia
- Administration said 4 pillars to Ukraine policy
- Ukraine could beat Russia with US support -hasn’t happened
- Russia economy would crash - hasn’t happened
- Sanctions would hurt Russia more than Europe - its the opposite - will get worse
- Western alliance would strengthen - its the opposite actually (protests in Prague, etc)
- All policies have failed - Washington, London leaders etc are not listening
- Kim Kardashian’s Newest Business Venture - Private Equity
- Her company valued at $3.2B - 329M followers on Instagram
- 1 point of view is that over the next 30 years all traditional brands will die
- Creators will become trusted source of influence - they are becoming the brand - Mr Beast launched a Chocolate bar - became #1 in the country - his burger restaurant had 100K people come to the opening
- Most important business transaction of 2022 is when Penn gaming bought barstool sports
- So everything is about content creation
- Influencers will rule - content creation replaces advertising and marketing
- Kim Kardashian is amazing at business
- Entrepreneurs need to learn that you have to go direct to consumers - you can do that at virtually zero cost - first build the brand, then convert it into distribution and then tack on a bunch of services on top of that
- Creating a great product is hard, distribution is even harder
- B2B - you can always charge enterprise enough that you can fund sales people to sell it - so good enterprise products have distribution built in
- B2C only works if you have low cost distribution channel
- So either you have extraordinary virality to the product like Paypal, Facebook or you take forever
- Coca Cola and McDonalds cant compete with creators who create content - so not technology companies, but simple businesses which are not differentiated - like cereal, chocolate bars, burgers, etc - will all be replaced
- Overprescription of amphetamines to children
- who are diagnosed with ADHD
- Even happening to adults
- Chamath invested in Akili - your kid can play a video game for 30 minutes a day that can use software to help train your brain - launching in the next few weeks - have written prescriptions to kids in every single state in the US
- Millions of kids of ADHD drugs, attention drugs, anxiety drugs - crazy
- We don’t know what the outcomes are going to be
- 38% increase in anti-depressant prescriptions
- Teachers are unable to deal with kids
- Chamath’s kid was asked to take it by a guidance counselor at one of his schools
- This is going to be like the Opioid crisis
- D2C marketing has doubled, tripled on Facebook, Google over the last year - so now content creation strategy is becoming a crucial lynchpin
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