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All In Podcast Episode 219 Recap and Notes March 14 2025

March 14 2025

  • All In Live at Miami
  • Andrew Schulz joins All In
  • Yamanaka factors
    • You can convert stem cells (say from skin cells) to egg cells
      • Do IVF at any age
      • Produce offspring at any age
    • Can get around the problem of not having enough viable eggs (women are born with a certain number of eggs and run out of it over time)
  • Gavin Newsom podcast
    • Makes him human
    • Unwinding all Dem land mines - positioning himself for 2028
    • Active listening from a politician
      • Might be unprecedented on both aisles
    • Willing to acknowledge that issues are not binary
    • Democrats are not grappling with the fact that voters rejected them - and so chose the alternative - they still think people like Trump
  • Tariffs
    • Chinese stance was quite aggressive in response to Trump tariff positioning
    • Consumption taxes vs income taxes and how we didn’t have income taxes before WW1
    • Renewables provided 90% of all energy added in US in 2024
    • What is the motivation - fentanyl, reciprocal, is it income tax, is it self sufficiency?
    • Centralizes power with Trump?
    • People care about saving money - so if they can pay less taxes that’s valuable
    • The American dream falls apart when people can’t feel like they can be a millionaire
      • That’s when they start cheering for the health care CEO who gets shot
    • Ever since the great financial crisis - asset holders have had a great ride
    • Trump is going to take wealth away from asset holders
    • No one cares about the rich people who lost their homes in the Palisades fires
    • No tax on tips was squarely targeted at regular folks
    • Trump is the democratic party that GenZ grew up with
    • Bernie was a good candidate but the establishment Dems made his supporters radioactive by calling them sexist and bigoted
      • Then they went to identity groups
    • Housing market will lose value next
      • American tax payer dollars are propping up the US housing market
      • Artificially inflated prices all around the country
    • Next wave is deeply beneficial to the middle class
    • You want as many Americans as possible invested in the American economy
    • This is why crypto was popular because folks were like this is something I can get a piece of
    • US Social Security was setup for folks who didn’t have private investment accounts
      • Its like a trust fund
      • It gets invested in 1 thing - US treasuries - 4.8%/year return since inception - SP500 instead is 11%
      • If we had picked the SP500 - 1/3rd of the value would have been owned by social security $15T
      • Instead social security has $2.7T - will go bankrupt by 2032 at current rate
      • If we put $500B in the trust fund today it won’t go bankrupt ever
      • Could have our own sovereign wealth fund
      • Why did we do this - we forced US people to loan money to the government using social security to buy treasuries
      • Middle class and rich people had 401k IRA etc and got the benefit instead
      • Friedberg emotional about how folks are targeting rich people forgetting how hard they had it
    • 60% of middle class household net worth is in their home, only 10% is in the SP500
    • Because people own houses our policies are in the service of increasing housing values so people feel good about themselves
      • Eventually we kept pumping it so high that now homes are unaffordable
    • RE needs to be 20% of net worth
    • Market drops inflict crazy psychological damage to you
      • Have to teach people to deal with the drawdowns
    • Invest then investigate
    • Magic of compound interest
    • Rule of 72
    • Teach kids how to invest
    • There’s always hope
  • Andrew comedy career
    • Lived with parents
    • Managed restaurants
    • Mamoun’s Falafel was his favorite
    • Standup gigs
    • Podcast
    • Had a lot of success through YouTube
    • Earlier way to make money was to get a special on a streaming service
    • Then YouTube clips + live show became better
    • Has the most diverse audience in comedy history
    • Where is America right now
      • Conspiracy theory thrives - dumb people get happy on that
      • Low confidence in institutions
      • Low confidence in information
    • Under Biden
      • Most incredible stock market
      • Most money printing
      • Most cumulative total budget deficits
      • Most short term refinancing of debt
  • JD is worth keeping an eye on

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