March 28 2025
Chamath abusing Friedberg’s dog Marshall
Gavin Baker joins the show
Nvidia
Gavin called on by Jensen
Nvidia balance sheet questions
NVidia reference architecture for example that Coreweave went with worked out for Nvidia
It means their buyers were more fragmented (vs hyperscalers to begin with) - and so it worked well
Nvidia has gone through a big product cycle
AR - accounts receivable went up more than sales
Coreweave IPO
Raising $1.5B (down from $2B)
Have $8B debt
Microsoft biggest customer
NVidia big customer and investor
Neocloud with GPUs
Crazy GPU demand right now (even in China)
Seems investor sentiment is negative going into the IPO
Folks are not sure what the differentiation is (this might be a commodity investment)
People might be underestimating the complexity of the implementation
Wrath of Lina Khan is over - perception or reality?
Many acquisitions happening in the last month
Very good for the market
AI cold war
US raising export controls with an eye to China
China looks ahead a century - US can barely look ahead a decade - CCP vs changing administrations
AI agents
Manus AI
MCP is a big development
China could blow a hole in the American Software Industrial Complex (SaaS) using AI and moving fast
Tariffs
Trump has been on this issue since 1987 (see Larry King interview and full page newspaper ad then)
To maximize the odds of tariffs succeeding is to make it easier to business in America (deregulation, etc)
Need to figure out the difference between manufacturing and IP
Similar issue with Facebook and other companies exporting their IP to Ireland (Zuck, Meta and Chamath getting sued for this kind of issue)
Tax cuts can help
If you remove money from the economy (tariffs raise prices so you spend less) you need to add money into the economy (tax cuts so you can spend more)
Scott Bessent probably the single most respected macro investor in the world
They can always retool if things don’t work out
They are trying the risky stuff first and if it doesn’t work then they can change their plans
Bessent and Lutnick were life long democrats
Administration can’t afford a recession so they will have to adapt
FY2025 budget deficit was $1.9T - what will it be for FY2026?
Estimates of how much federal revenue increase will happen is ~$250B roughly
DOGE needs to end “Time and Materials” and “Cost Plus” contracts
TMZ and Kara Swisher trying to spin AllIn DC interviews negatively
Gavin Baker has someone in his own immediate family who has had their SSN stolen and getting unemployment benefits in Alabama
Lutnick said in the interview that retirement age being raised is an outrage
Jason offering to do DOGEPod
He didn’t vote for Kamala
Signalgate
Jeffrey Goldberg (Atlantic Editor-in-Chief) was added to a Signal group chat with highest US government officials (Vance, Tulsi, etc)
Freight charges change depending on if you can take the Suez Canal o
Europe affected most - even US a little bit
Group chat shows British, French etc can’t handle it - only US can
Seems the attack was successful in its purpose to alleviate shipping through the Suez Canal
Using Signal was a mistake likely and also the fact that the journalist was added to the group chat
Question about whether its legal to even use these apps and bypass government archival requirements
The administration took ownership (Trump, Rubio, etc) but then they attacked the messenger - thats wrong
The journalist maybe also needs to explain why they were apparently just lurking
For all the rhetoric its clear that US recognizes who is on the home team (US trade 3% affected, Europe 40% affected) - and US is also helping Europe a lot
El Salvador deportations
Execution matters to accomplish their goals - if innocent people are sent by mistake they need to rectify it
103/100K was homicide rate in 2015 in El Salvador
Now its < 2 per 100K (1.9 last year) - had a radically positive effect on society
But what about due process?
Seems Trump admin is taking a cue from El Salvador
At least do a court trial, judge, evidentiary hearing, etc - that matches the standards expected in the US
Might be fairer to ship people through a port of departure instead of just imprisoning people
Might cost them the mid terms if they don’t communicate effectively
Administration is also sending a signal to the criminals to leave on their own accord
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