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All In DC with Howard Lutnick - Recap and Notes March 20 2025

All in DC - March 20 2025

  • Howard Lutnick joins the show
    • House renovation
  • Relationship with Trump
    • Known for 30+ years
    • Trump was on the cover of Time magazine 59 times
      • Has been famous for 30+ years
      • If you attack him - he gets recharged
      • He is never just talking
        • Panama Canal
        • Research showed he’s right about Chinese influence (~70% signage characters etc through the area)
      • Transition chair
      • (Lutnick, Trump and Chamath have all donated to Chuck Schumer in the past)
      • Socially liberal fiscal conservative
      • Has great relationship with Hilary Clinton (she helped him after 9/11)
        • So he can never forget how she helped him - so DJT gives him a hard time as a joke
      • Trump asked him to help in 2023 - so he agreed
      • Helped pick Sacks
      • Helped understand how Chief of Staff role should work and not a “gatekeeper” - related book
      • Idea for DOGE is about balancing the budget
        • Fix entitlement fraud, etc
        • Pitched using tariffs to help offset income tax for folks (85% of US) making < $150K/year if you can balance the budget
      • Roped in Elon
      • Explained Gratis vendor
        • You give goods to US but don’t sell it
      • Came up with the name DOGE (was floating around on the internet) and registered it
      • Trump makes decisions by orchestra
      • Had 8 candidates for each role - down to 4 - down to 2 - then 1
      • Played role of recruiter in chief
  • Balancing the budget
    • How will this happen given congressional interest
    • Easiest way to find the fraudster is stop payments and listen
    • Consolidate census into USPS 625000 people
    • Try to separate non productive parts of GDP
    • Will explain by publishing data of how government spending jumps the quarter before an election
    • $200B of $1.2T during covid PPE - apparently went to chinese gangs
    • Wants to ensure people get social security money - US is the richest country
  • Tariffs and global trade
    • No income tax until 1913
    • From 1880 to 1913 US had blue ribbon commissions
    • Added taxes before WW1
    • Then after WW2 we let rest of the world tariff us but we kept low tariffs for them
    • Long term strategy was to help the rest of the world rebuild - Japan, Korea, Kuwait, etc
    • Trump understood this 40 years ago
    • It seems these are linked to the wars abroad that America feels it should help rebuild after
    • Typical economist refrain is that tariffs lead to inflation
    • US had auto industry in Detroit and Ohio - decimated by NAFTA signed by Bill Clinton
      • So tariffs is about reshoring
    • Its a globalist view to export jobs to get better profits for US corporation
    • But for humans in America its better to keep jobs here
    • Rest of the countries are more protectionist
    • Have to be strategic with tariffs - choose to tariffs goods that will ensure reshoring
    • We now have $2T of committed domestic production because of tariffs
      • Better paying jobs and more productive than government jobs
  • Trump card
    • John Paulson idea
    • Sold 1000 cards
    • Global income stays out
  • Govt software
    • Software hasn’t been bought by government because they pay the whole contract up front - 10 years of paying - no one wants to agree because they will be out in 4 years
    • Has made deals with big companies to make software for the government for free
    • Aware of requirement for post quantum cryptography
  • Sovereign wealth fund strategy
    • Cruise ship tax workaround example
    • Ireland taxes and IP workaround example
    • How much is the court system of America worth - how is Nvidia worth $3T without the court system that protects it?
  • Family
    • Wife and 4 kids
    • 2 older boys running his company
    • Don’t take your teachers for granted
    • Bought Bret Baier’s house

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