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All In Podcast Episode 240 Recap and Notes August 22 2025

 E240: August 22 2025


  • Sacks Jason bulldog adoption - Moose
  • Eric Schmitt interview recap
    • Government censorship
  • AIS 2025
    • Alex Karp
    • Vlad Tenev
    • Chris Wright
    • Uber CEO
    • Circle CEO
    • Diplo performing
    • Sponsors: Solana, OKX, Google Cloud ($350K again, mini campus), Athletic Brewing, etc
  • AI bubble pop?
    • MIT report on 95% failure of AI pilots
    • Sam Altman bubble claim
    • People are discovering difference between probabilistic software and deterministic software
    • Back office software is a good target - can get high accuracy
    • Sacks vindicated in his stance from earlier that AI is not going to become a be-all end-all all-powerful fantastical utopia
    • We’re not in a recursive loop of self improvement
    • We are in a normal technology race and not some single winner outcome
    • So we can apply a more normal investment and policy mindset to it - so its healthy
    • Different models have different specializations - this belies the idea of 1 model becoming all knowing and all powerful
    • So all the doomers were crazy
    • We’re still learning how to pair humans and AI - and how to integrate AI into business
    • Lots of partner models are also being developed
      • Sora + Unity for example
    • ROIC will increase with AI deployment - leading to higher token production
    • We might be in the trough of disillusionment
    • Huge pushback when AI solutions percolate down (8090 got fired after their first big deal)
    • Zuck spending freeze
    • Maybe some of the big hiring targets should have taken the lucrative offers before the bust cycle
    • OpenAI $500B valuation might work out and they will do really well
  • 2028 election
    • Newsom leading Dems for primary
    • He is mimicking Trump - Dems are responding positively
    • He comes across as synthetic and plastic - not as authentic as Trump
    • Current polling is non-Trump aligned market’s response to Trump
    • Dems will likely prop up a socialist - AOC will do well there
    • Dem moderates might pick Newsom over outward socialists
    • If the people who lead never win applies here (like it did with DeSantis) then he might not win
    • Do voters want a replay of California on an American 50 state scale? Hard for him to explain it away
    • But in the land of the blind, the 1 eyed man is King - so it could work for him
    • Dem process might elect a socialist - but Republicans and moderates won’t back a socialist so socialist might win the primary but lose the general election
    • CA record under Newsom
      • Highest taxes in the country with worst public services
      • $75B surplus to $20B deficit
      • None of that money went to reservoirs and fire hydrants - neighborhoods burnt down and not rebuilt due to permitting
      • 4th largest economy in the world but highest rates of poverty, inequality, wage stagnation, homelessness, illiteracy
      • 3rd highest unemployment in 50 states
      • Second to Hawaii in housing cost
      • Worst in energy costs
      • Highest rate of retail crime and frivolous lawsuits - businesses leaving the state
        • Bed Bath and Beyond leaving CA and still opening new stores (some 300) outside
    • Dems lost to Trump because of policies and record
  • Russia Ukraine
    • Trump Putin meeting in Alaska

    • Trump Zelenskyy EU heads of state meeting in the White House

    • First meeting between US and Russian presidents since 2021 and first since war

    • Even Ukrainians want peace but Dem media was hysterical in their opposition to end the war

    • Complicating factors are ceasefire vs war end (if you’re losing a war you don’t get to call a timeout)

    • Ukraine can’t be joining NATO which is the key source of friction for this war

    • There will be some concessions

    • Trump has actually increased sanctions

    • India tariff is bold issue - even if it might backfire

  • Besties kids growing up

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