August 29 2025
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Moose is on the loose
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AIS 2025 will be awesome
- Sponsors: Oracle, Circle, etc
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Trump vs the Fed
- Firing Lisa Cook - one of the Fed governors
- She sued questioning his authority to fire him
- FHFA accused her of mortgage fraud
- First time in US history that a President has fired a Fed governor
- Can stop pretending that the Fed governors are independent because their appointment was also kinda political
- Fed moves too slowly - meets once a month which is not frequent enough for fast moving markets
- Seems like there’s too much responsibility given to a handful of humans who probably use fewer and poorer inputs
- Commerce department is more innovative - storing data in the blockchain
- This can help the market react in real time - Fed should be trying to do more such things
- These folks get 14 year terms so its supposed to not be affected by politics
- Powell himself made some questionable decisions
- Called inflation transitory in May 2021 inspite 5% inflation print, then got renominated Nov 22 2021 and Nov 30 2021 he says its not transitory
- Lets not diffuse accountability from Powell - he is the leader of the organization - by saying the other Fed governors have votes we’re obscuring his role
- SOFR rates might be better?
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US takes 10% stake in Intel
- Better to have companies be financed privately - but as a country if we decide to get chips onshored then what else can we do? Instead of just giving them a loan at least we get some equity upside as taxpayers
- Free market failure if government
- provides capital
- provides unique regulatory unlock
- becomes biggest buyer
- This is like socialism
- In line with trend of government playing an unduly large role in the economy
- Where does this equity go - even if we agree that its better to get equity instead of giving money for free
- Maybe social security trust fund would benefit from equity in private markets
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US Sovereign wealth fund
- Relatedly, Colorado has an interesting provision to cap spending based on population and inflation rate - and have had to return money to taxpayers in some cases
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Corporate bankruptcies trending up in 2025
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2010 was bad
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Real estate crash to come?
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Refinances are going to hurt
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OpenAI and Longevity Research
- Yamanaka factors (4 proteins O S K M if applied to a cell change it to a stem cell?)
- OpenAI LLM predicted many protein structures
- Shows power of tuning base models for specific applications
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