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All In Podcast Episode 245 Recap and Notes October 3 2025

October 3 2025

  • Push up challenge
  • EA going private
    • $55B
    • Silver Lake, Saudi PIF, Kushner’s Affinity Partners
    • Games are huge - 3B DAU
    • IP creators (EA, etc) vs Gatekeepers (Microsoft, XBOX, Playstation, etc)
    • This is a huge asset - probably bigger than social media - but creators don’t win enough
    • AI will accrue to video game entertainment much more than social media or traditional media engagement - this is one view - and could explain part of the thesis for this deal (at least in potential)
    • Deflationary effects of AI will give people more free time - so general market for entertainment will grow - Gaming is a huge part of entertainment
    • Saudis are going big after gaming - chunks of blizzard, take2, etc - and whole games/companies, etc
  • Why is PE becoming so large?
    • When too much money goes in, returns compress
    • Distributions on Paid in Capital - DPI is more important than IRR - this has been less in PE recently - so money will leave this asset class
  • SPAC 2.0
    • Traditional IPO, Direct Listing, Reverse Merger (SPAC)
    • Hoping for improvements from SPAC 1.0
  • AI rollup opportunity
    • Transform businesses with AI - like Josh Kushner doing at Thrive - roll up of CPA firms
    • People incentives at typical PE companies is misaligned to AI outcomes
    • Maybe there’s a new kind of private equity that can execute this well
    • Owner operated model is the only way the AI transformation happens
    • AI video generation/game generation can help create new content opportunities - just do it genuinely
    • Jason selling mahalo.com
  • OpenAI, Meta releasing video generation
    • New media will distribute production (vs trad media where its centralized production and distributed consumption)
  • Deepseek’s new model
    • Cheaper costs
    • Might herald a new architecture of how models work and how much energy they consume
    • 8090 redirected a lot of their workload on bedrock to kimik2 on groq and it was quite cheap
    • hard to hot swap models because prompts, etc don’t just work interoperably
    • Getting worse the more complicated tasks companies undertake
    • Open source is a big check on the power of big tech
    • Open source running on your own infrastructure is cheaper if you know what you’re doing
    • Question about whether the OSS models have backdoors - relying on safety testing by the infra providers (AWS, Groq, etc)
    • Jensen said - no one wants nuclear weapons, everyone wants AI - so the view of doomers and policy makers from a couple of years ago was completely wrong - AI is highly decentralized - 5 major US companies, like 8 Chinese startups, etc
    • AI energy problem will become worse sooner
    • Energy costs are doubling due to AI companies and they will take your jobs - that’s a bad look
    • Need energy fast - nuclear takes 5 years, natural gas needs gas turbines but there is a backlog on those
    • So can we squeeze it out of the grid?
  • State AI regulation
    • CA SB53
    • Insane requirements - need govt intervention to deploy models, etc
    • These guys just want control over private market actors and their actions
    • They have no idea what they are talking about and have no idea what they want
    • Worse than EU style regulations
      • 50 authorities instead of 1
    • Look how CO law from 2024 talks about algorithmic discrimination
    • These things just want to add a DEI layer to AI outputs
    • We already saw this with the car market - how CA emissions vs rest of the country hurt the manufacturers
    • We already have statutes that protect people from harm
    • These regulations are not about harm prevention but are about oversight
    • States have rights to set their regulations - but they are clueless here
    • Blue states will make woke AI return if Federal pre-emption doesn’t happen
    • Commerce clause in the constitution helps the US have 1 economy

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