All In Podcast Episode 246 Recap and Notes October 10 2025

October 10 2025

BG is back!!!!! 👏

I. The "Moonshot Presidency" Agenda: Geopolitics and Domestic Policy

The "Moonshot Presidency" involves high-risk, high-reward efforts across multiple fronts, including China, AI, re-industrialization, India, Pakistan, Ukraine/Russia, and the Middle East.

A. Geopolitical Success: The Middle East Peace Deal

1. Gaza Peace Deal Details:

◦ President Trump announced the first phase of a multi-stage peace deal between Israel and Hamas, notably two years after the October 7th attacks.

◦ The deal is based on Trump's 20-point peace plan.

◦ Phase 1 Components: Includes a ceasefire, unrestricted aid into Gaza, release of all remaining Israeli hostages, release of 2,000 Palestinian prisoners by Israel, and the start of troop withdrawal.

2. Diplomacy and Brokerage:

◦ The deal is seen as a "big breakthrough" and a "big accomplishment".

◦ President Trump demonstrated "a degree of will unlike any other president" in pressing Israeli Prime Prime Minister Netanyahu on an issue vital to his political survival.

◦ The U.S. adopted the role of an "honest broker," willing to pressure both sides (Netanyahu and Hamas). Trump warned Hamas that "all hell would break loose" if they did not agree to the deal.

◦ If successful, this would mark the eighth war Trump has ended in seven months.

3. Economic and Strategic Outcomes:

◦ Stability is crucial for the region to focus 100% on the forward monetization of oil reserves.

◦ Monetization allows rapid economic diversification, shifting funds into areas like private equity, solar, renewables, AI, venture capital, tourism, and building new cities, which is impossible if the region is unstable or dangerous.

◦ Legacy: Resolving this conflict, along with potential deals on Ukraine/Russia and China/Taiwan, would take the "trifecta" of the three biggest global hotspots off the table. Hillary Clinton reportedly stated that if Trump pulls off peace between Ukraine and Russia, she would nominate him for a Nobel Peace Prize.

B. Domestic Policy: Immigration Enforcement and Political Backlash

1. Enforcement Actions (Chicago):

◦ DHS executed "Operation Midway Blitz" in Chicago, resulting in 800 arrests of illegal aliens. A raid on September 30th involved flashbangs and a Blackhawk helicopter.

◦ Trump deployed 500 National Guard troops from Illinois and Texas to Chicago to protect ICE agents who are allegedly being targeted by violent leftist protesters, such as Antifa.

◦ Local Opposition: Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson labeled Trump an authoritarian and filed a lawsuit. Johnson established "ICE-free zones" and banned city employees from aiding ICE (unless required by a criminal warrant), which the White House called a "disgusting betrayal".

2. Legal and Policy Context:

◦ Precedent: Presidents (like Eisenhower and JFK) have the authority to deploy federal troops to enforce federal laws (e.g., desegregation).

◦ In Washington D.C., where federal authority was unchallenged, deployment of the National Guard led to immediate positive results, dramatically reducing homicides and carjackings, leading to happier residents.

◦ Bipartisan Trend: Deportations are currently tracking back toward the historical average of 300,000–400,000 annual removals, consistent with rates seen under Presidents Clinton and Obama.

3. Critiques and Impact on Agenda:

◦ Political Drift: Critics argue the violent and cruel nature of the raids, including ICE agents "in masks beating powerless hardworking immigrants," is causing Trump to drift from the popular "Trump 2.0" platform (pro-business, peace efforts) back into the chaotic "Trump 1.0" agenda (authoritarian tendencies, January 6th violence).

◦ Constitutional Concern: Opponents argue that deploying federal troops into states where local governments resist violates the constitutional principle of states' rights regarding internal security.

◦ Negative Polling: The Chicago raids are linked to a dip in Trump's net approval rating to an all-time low. His net approval rating on immigration plummeted from +10% to approximately -5%.

◦ Inefficiency and Cruelty: The cost of deportation is high (approx. **100,000perperson∗∗).Asuggestedalternativeisfiningemployerswhohireundocumentedworkers(10,000, doubling subsequently). Critics also cite issues of racial profiling and the separation of families.

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II. The AI Race and Technology Investment

A. The AMD/OpenAI GPU Deal

1. The Transaction: OpenAI committed to purchasing six gigawatts (GW) of AMD's next-generation GPUs (MI450), a deal potentially worth $60 billion or more over five years.

2. Warrant Structure: AMD granted OpenAI warrants for up to 160 million shares, or 10% of the company.

3. AMD's Strategic Imperative: Nvidia controls nearly 100% of the incremental AI data center revenue, growing 10x faster than AMD in the last 2.5 years. AMD's earlier chip was uncompetitive, making this deal a "bet the farm" move on the success of the MI450 to re-enter the market. Success could yield $150 billion in incremental revenue from OpenAI alone.

4. Metric Shift: The industry is moving from measuring deals in chip counts (e.g., H100s) to gigawatts (GW) because power (GW) is the fundamental, constrained resource, providing a unified metric to compare power input to token output across different architectures.

B. Constraints and Control Points

1. Energy (The Primary Constraint): Energy (electrons) will be the gating item for AI expansion. Companies that control energy inputs (hydrocarbon to electron, etc.) will gain leverage and can demand equity participation in foundational model makers, moving beyond low-margin supply chain participation.

2. Supply Chain Control (HBM): High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is a critical input largely consumed by Nvidia and Google. OpenAI secured forward capacity on HBM from manufacturers (SK Hynix, Samsung), allowing them to "allocate allocation" and receive a "tax" (like the warrants/equity in the AMD deal).

C. Market Size, Demand, and "Round-Tripping"

1. TAM Projections:

◦ Wall Street estimates for Nvidia's growth flatline after 2027, with less than 10% CAGR in growth projected from 2027-2029.

◦ The cost of a 1 GW data center is approximately 500 billion investment per data center.

◦ Global AI revenue is projected to exceed **1trillionby2030∗∗.Productivitygainsof5–10125 trillion) translates to $6–12 trillion in productivity gains, justifying the investment.

◦ CAPEX vs. OPEX: CAPEX (trillions) is dwarfed by OPEX (tens of trillions) over the useful life, including costs for power, water, and upgrade cycles.

2. Demand and Bubble Thesis:

◦ Unlike the dot-com era's "dark fiber" (unused capacity), there are currently no "dark GPUs" in the world.

◦ Demand is expected to be massive due to applications not yet invented. Demand is fueled by the Jevons paradox (as the cost per token drops, new use cases become economically viable).

◦ Investment is encouraged as it represents American exceptionalism and creative destruction.

3. Round-Tripping (Conflicted Party Transactions):

◦ This refers to large transactions, often involving equity or credit extension (e.g., Nvidia extending credit to buyers like OpenAI to fund the buildout).

◦ Legitimacy: While concerning, these transactions are common in legacy industries (e.g., auto OEMs giving floor loans to dealers).

◦ Economic Substance: Regulators (SEC, PCAOB) must determine if the transaction has economic substance or is a "sham". Given OpenAI's massive revenue ramp rate (projected to hit a $20B run rate this year, potentially $50B next year), the downstream demand for tokens provides economic substance.

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III. Macroeconomic Shifts

A. Gold Rally

1. Performance: Gold broke $4,000/ounce for the first time, up over 50% year-to-date, outpacing Bitcoin and major indices.

2. Drivers:

◦ Loss of Confidence: A loss of confidence in global central bank policy is driving macro funds toward gold and away from bonds and currencies.

◦ New Demand: Net new buyers include Tether, which issues a gold-backed stable coin (Tether Gold).

◦ Geopolitical De-Dollarization: China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, diversifying away from US dollars and US Treasuries.

◦ US Weaponization of USD: This trend accelerated after the Biden administration used the dollar complex (freezing Russian assets, cutting off SWIFT access) as a geopolitical weapon during the Ukraine war, demonstrating the risk of total reliance on the dollar complex to BRICS countries.

◦ BRICS Alternative: BRICS countries are contemplating developing alternatives, potentially involving gold-backed certificates for settling large international trade flows.

B. Prediction Markets (Poly Market)

1. Major Investment: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), parent company of the NYSE, invested $2 billion in Poly Market (at a reported $9 billion valuation) and will distribute the platform to thousands of global financial institutions.

2. Market Convergence: This signifies a shift where "everything is becoming a market," meaning knowledge, sports, equities, and debt instruments will converge and become highly liquid, tokenized, and fungible.

3. Core Value Proposition: Prediction markets professionalize the "wisdom of the crowds," a concept that holds crowds are smarter than individual experts. The ability to put money on predictions increases the crowd’s intelligence.