All In Podcast Episode 248 Recap and Notes October 24 2025

October 24 2025

• CA Wealth Tax
  • SEIU filed a ballot initiative - direct to voter vote - introduce 5% of net worth for Billionaires - 1 time payment to state of CA
    • Even if it doesn’t pass, they will use this as bait to catch the people who oppose it and target them in the next election cycle
  • This is why JCal left CA for Texas just in time
  • They are already trying to pass Prop 55 - for people making more than a million dollars
  • Voters will just agree to hurt the 200 californians - draw a bright line between these 200 and the others
  • Eventually most of the entrepreneurs will leave
  • No one will educate the people that we have a $300B budget, most of which is waste
  • They are doing this mainly to fund pension programs, etc
  • Devious people have drafted this - Roth IRAs over $10M are also not exempt (even if you paid tax up front)
  • We all know this won’t be a 1 time thing - if its to plug a deficit, they will run deficits every year
  • They have no incentive to fix their mismanagement if this passes
  • Jeffrey Katzenberg, Ari Emanuel think that they have the tiger (socialism) under control but maybe they are losing control
    • See what happened in NY (Mamdani winning there apparently)
      • 17% tax
  • Billionaire CEO of a public company in CA are super hosed because their employees, PR etc will all hurt them
  • Retroactive to 2026, so we have about 2 months
  • Rational thing to do is pull up stakes and leave the state right now
• NBA gambling scam

  • Terry Rozier, Chauncey Billups caught up in this

  • Game results/props, Poker games, etc were apparently compromised

  • State by state patchwork regulatory authority complicates things, maybe we should have Federal regulation

  • Polymarket is doing well - this is part of the trend of better data and open markets removing information asymmetry

    • DraftKings, FanDuel seem to be in trouble

  • Polymarket has the news before the news does

    

  • When people have incentives, the market will find the truth

  • Marketplaces need to consolidate - Stocks, equities, cryptocurrencies, etc

• AWS outage and layoffs
  • AWS, Azure, GCP all growing fast
  • Customers eventually do multi-cloud
  • This outage shows people shouldn’t have single cloud dependency
  • Rule of 3 - 60, 30, 10 split usually in any market
    • This will be 1/3rd each in non-AI instead?
  • Google did a good job creating Alphabet, holding company
    • SilverLake, etc would come in only if there’s a possibility of liquidity
  • People are not willing to acknowledge that government is the problem - it inflates the cost of goods and services - its not AI, robotics and automation
  • Job loss narrative is overblown
• Tesla Earnings
  • Doing well
  • Legacy business vs going forward
  • Elon comp package vote Nov 6 - Polymarket expects it to pass
    • But it will be close - ISS, Glass Lewis might affect this vote
  • AI5 potential is high - lets see if it works well
  • Energy business will be the limiter
  • Corporate America went woke because of Glass Lewis and ISS - they make recommendations on how shareholders should vote for various initiatives - so they are very influential (DEI requirements, ESG requirements, etc)
    • They were captured by wokes a long time ago
  • Very few active managers left - retail is second largest group because Passive is a big behemoth - so no one to stand up to them
  • Tesla Optimus robots - where will they go? Mars, mining? Robots could mine harder to mine material
• AI models showing hidden biases

  • Ranking different people differently

    
    

  • Concerning if true

  • Biden EO explicitly required DEI of the models

  • Now Colorado law is banning algorithmic discrimination

  • CA, Illinois also introducing algorithmic discrimination laws - so we will get DEI as a backdoor

  • Maybe benchmarks are informing the bias, maybe training data

  • There is distribution bias - its hard to say that the free market will self-correct