October 24 2025
- CA Wealth Tax
- SEIU filed a ballot initiative - direct to voter vote - introduce 5% of net worth for Billionaires - 1 time payment to state of CA
- Even if it doesn’t pass, they will use this as bait to catch the people who oppose it and target them in the next election cycle
- This is why JCal left CA for Texas just in time
- They are already trying to pass Prop 55 - for people making more than a million dollars
- Voters will just agree to hurt the 200 californians - draw a bright line between these 200 and the others
- Eventually most of the entrepreneurs will leave
- No one will educate the people that we have a $300B budget, most of which is waste
- They are doing this mainly to fund pension programs, etc
- Devious people have drafted this - Roth IRAs over $10M are also not exempt (even if you paid tax up front)
- We all know this won’t be a 1 time thing - if its to plug a deficit, they will run deficits every year
- They have no incentive to fix their mismanagement if this passes
- Jeffrey Katzenberg, Ari Emanuel think that they have the tiger (socialism) under control but maybe they are losing control
- See what happened in NY (Mamdani winning there apparently)
- 17% tax
- See what happened in NY (Mamdani winning there apparently)
- Billionaire CEO of a public company in CA are super hosed because their employees, PR etc will all hurt them
- Retroactive to 2026, so we have about 2 months
- Rational thing to do is pull up stakes and leave the state right now
- SEIU filed a ballot initiative - direct to voter vote - introduce 5% of net worth for Billionaires - 1 time payment to state of CA
- NBA gambling scam
-
Terry Rozier, Chauncey Billups caught up in this
-
Game results/props, Poker games, etc were apparently compromised
-
State by state patchwork regulatory authority complicates things, maybe we should have Federal regulation
-
Polymarket is doing well - this is part of the trend of better data and open markets removing information asymmetry
- DraftKings, FanDuel seem to be in trouble
-
Polymarket has the news before the news does
-
When people have incentives, the market will find the truth
-
Marketplaces need to consolidate - Stocks, equities, cryptocurrencies, etc
-
- AWS outage and layoffs
- AWS, Azure, GCP all growing fast
- Customers eventually do multi-cloud
- This outage shows people shouldn’t have single cloud dependency
- Rule of 3 - 60, 30, 10 split usually in any market
- This will be 1/3rd each in non-AI instead?
- Google did a good job creating Alphabet, holding company
- SilverLake, etc would come in only if there’s a possibility of liquidity
- People are not willing to acknowledge that government is the problem - it inflates the cost of goods and services - its not AI, robotics and automation
- Job loss narrative is overblown
- Tesla Earnings
- Doing well
- Legacy business vs going forward
- Elon comp package vote Nov 6 - Polymarket expects it to pass
- But it will be close - ISS, Glass Lewis might affect this vote
- AI5 potential is high - lets see if it works well
- Energy business will be the limiter
- Corporate America went woke because of Glass Lewis and ISS - they make recommendations on how shareholders should vote for various initiatives - so they are very influential (DEI requirements, ESG requirements, etc)
- They were captured by wokes a long time ago
- Very few active managers left - retail is second largest group because Passive is a big behemoth - so no one to stand up to them
- Tesla Optimus robots - where will they go? Mars, mining? Robots could mine harder to mine material
- AI models showing hidden biases
-
Ranking different people differently
-
Concerning if true
-
Biden EO explicitly required DEI of the models
-
Now Colorado law is banning algorithmic discrimination
-
CA, Illinois also introducing algorithmic discrimination laws - so we will get DEI as a backdoor
-
Maybe benchmarks are informing the bias, maybe training data
-
There is distribution bias - its hard to say that the free market will self-correct
-
Comments