January 9 2026
- CA Exodus
- Sacks in Austin, Texas
- Moved in December
- Austin office for Craft Ventures
- Chamath started the process in December - nothing decided yet
- Sacks’s broker helping Chamath find a place
- A lot of people are hedging their bets
- Larry Page going to Florida maybe
- Chamath claims $0.5T net worth of his friends have left
- Even Reid Hoffman thinks the proposed wealth tax is insane
- This is not going away - the leftists want it to go through
- The problem is the fraud - fix the fraud first then decide on taxes
- Sergey also probably left
- CA is also levying more taxes based on super voting - this is why the Google founders likely left
- Seizing assets tax - does it get on the ballot and does it go through
- Friedberg - No, and so No
- Mamdani and Cea Weaver communist rhetoric going up
- Collectivism over individualism
- Seize people’s property
- Sacks in Austin, Texas
- Predictions show
- Template
- Last year
- Friedberg
- Gavin
- Jason
- Chamath
- This year
- Friedberg
- Jason
- Chamath
- Sacks
- Last year
- Biggest political winner
- Last year
- Friedberg - young candidates - right
- Gavin - Trump and centrism - not sure
- Chamath - fiscal conservatives - not sure
- Jason - genX and elder millenials - right
- This year
- Friedberg
- Jason
- Chamath
- Sacks
- Friedberg - Democratic Socialists of America
- Jason - Mamdani (Democrats will win on socialism) > Darth Vance
- Chamath - whoever fights waste fraud and abuse at federal, state, local level
- Sacks - Trump economic boom
- Last year
- GDP
- Friedberg - 4.6%
- Jason - 4-5%
- Chamath - 5-6%
- Sacks - 5-6%
- Biggest Political Loser
- Last year
- Friedberg - Pro war neocons - kinda right
- Gavin - Putin - not sure
- Jason - Putin - not sure
- Chamath - Progressivism - kinda right
- This year
- Friedberg - Tech industry - AI and tech wealth have become lightning rod for political activism on both sides
- Jason - Centrist democrats
- Chamath - Monroe doctrine
- Sacks - Democratic centrists will lose - they have to cater to even more leftist people or will lose in contested areas that are not gerrymandered
- (Side note: Neocon included national building, occupation and invasion (in reverse order) - this didn’t happen in Venezuela - in fact Democrats are asking for explicit regime change with putting the Nobel Peace Prize winner in power - which would require American GI = men with guns)
- Last year
- Biggest Business Winner
- Last year
- Friedberg - Robots - right
- Gavin - Big businesses that use AI thoughtfully - right
- Jason - Tesla and Google - right
- Chamath - Dollar denominated stable coins - right
- This year
- Friedberg - Huawei (chip manufacturing) then Polymarket (prediction markets will become news)
- Jason - Amazon (robotics) - in Austin everything comes in the same day
- Chamath - (himself 😛 - already won with Groq) Copper
- Sacks - IPO (trillions of dollars of new public companies)
- (Side note: Economic cost to Sacks will hit about a billion dollars - he had to divest from Groq, xAI, etc)
- Last year
- Biggest Business Loser
- Last year
- Friedberg - Boeing, Lockheed and old guard defense contractors - right
- Gavin - government service providers - right
- Jason - OpenAI - half right
- Chamath - Mag 7 - wrong
- This year
- Friedberg - Fraud investigations will uncover problems - State obligations
- Jason - young white collar workers in America (talking his own book with Founder university)
- Counterpoint - Friedberg’s friend let him know that the problem isn’t AI, its recent grads who after covid had (universities let anyone in and graduate more easily) - lower standards - very different cultural situation
- Chamath - Software industrial complex - companies that sell licensed SaaS to corporate America (talking his own book with 8090)
- Sacks - CA because of wealth tax
- Last year
- Biggest deal
- Last year
- Friedberg - Massive compute build out deals - hugely right
- Gavin - M&A - right
- Jason - consolidation among on demand economy, apple buying WB (went to Netflix) - kinda right
- Chamath - Traditional auto OEM consolidation - not sure
- This year
- Friedberg - Russia/Ukraine will get settled this year
- Jason - Massive M&A - predicts $50B+ deal
- Chamath - IP license M&A workaround - 100s of billions of dollars of these kinds of deals
- Sacks - Coding assistants/Tool use will get bigger
- Last year
- Most contrarian belief
- Last year
- Friedberg - Socialism grows - hugely right
- Gavin - 5% + GDP growth in 1-2 years - right
- Jason - OpenAI loses lead in AI race - right
- Chamath - Banking crisis - not sure
- This year
- Friedberg - Iran has been a stabilizing force in that region - will be seen if there is more middle eastern conflict that doesn’t involve Israel/Iran
- Jason - China standoff will be resolved
- Chamath
- SpaceX will not IPO and reverse merge into Tesla to consolidate power
- Central bank will seek out a completely new cryptographic paradigm that they can control
- Sacks - AI will increase demand for knowledge workers (see Aaron Levie’s Jevons paradox for Knowledge Workers)
- Last year
- Best Performing Asset
- Last year
- Friedberg - Chinese tech stocks and ETFs - right
- Gavin - High bandwidth memory makers like Micron - hugely right
- Jason - Mag 7 - right
- Chamath - Long CDS at a major bank - not sure
- This year
- Friedberg - Polymarket
- Jason - Robinhood/Polymarket betting/price/prize picks
- Chamath - Basket of critical metals
- Sacks - Expanding super cycle in tech
- breaking news - US productivity surged 4.9% - Atlanta Fed estimates Q4 2025 GDP growth of 5.4% (might be hit 1.5% due to government furloughs) - Chamath thinks this might solve affordability crisis
- Companies selling capital equipment because depreciation is allowed to write off 100% in first year
- Last year
- Worst Performing assets
- Last year
- Friedberg - vertical saas - kinda right (they grew less than S&P)
- Gavin - enterprise saas - kinda right
- Jason - Legacy car companies and real estate - right
- Chamath - enterprise saas - kinda right
- This year
- Friedberg - Netflix if they don’t close the WBD deal, else if they do close it, then traditional media stocks
- Jason - USD
- Chamath - Hydrocarbons (will be very poor performing if not worst)
- Sacks - CA luxury real estate due to overhang from wealth tax (SF has luxury tax like LA - like 5-6% - for the seller - mansion tax so called - has killed LA high end real estate - so taxes slowed down transaction volume)
- Last year
- Most anticipated trend
- Last year
- Friedberg - nuclear build out - not sure (chamath is massively short because he thinks they have missed their moment)
- Gavin - more AI progress per quarter than in whole year earlier (right)
- Jason - Lina Khan ending - kinda right
- Chamath - end of deep state - right
- This year
- Friedberg - Iran becoming an independent democratic state
- Jason - IPOs coming back
- Chamath - expansion of Trump doctrine
- Sacks - Auditing govt spending at all levels - decentralized DOGE - audit everything (ex: not acceptable for Gavin Newsom to prohibit audits like he did for homeless spending)
- Last year
- Most anticipated media
- Last year
- Friedberg - AI video games
- Gavin - 1923 season 2
- Jason - Superman and Andor season 2
- Chamath - Epstein files
- This year
- Friedberg - Citizen journalism doing expose’ - man on the street pushing stuff
- Jason - Odyssey movie, Avengers Doomsday, Dune 3
- Chamath - Citizen journalism
- Sacks - Odyssey movie
- Last year
- They hit 1M YouTube subscribers
- Template
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